BRADENTON -- On Friday, I took a look at the players on the Pirates’ roster who are at risk of being non-tendered, potentially opening up a roster spot for a prospect who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December.
And there are a lot of Pirates prospects who are eligible for that draft.
The Rule 5 Draft is a chance for clubs to steal a minor-league player from another team, on the condition that they keep them on the major league roster all year. Last year, the Pirates acquired pitchers Luis Oviedo and Jose Soriano this way last winter. Oviedo spent the whole year on the team and is now eligible to be optioned to the minors. Soriano wasn’t on the active roster all year and was returned to the Angels Sunday.
Not every prospect is eligible for the draft. Guys like Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales and Quinn Priester are all safe even if they aren’t on the roster. Those who are eligible either:
Signed with their club at age 18 or younger and have five years of professional experience.
Signed with their club at age 19 or older and have four years of professional experience.
If you want a rundown for when players become Rule 5 eligible, I recommend Roster Resource's depth chart. I used that page to find the 18 notable Pirate minor-leaguers who need to be either added to the roster or be left exposed in the draft.
MUST ADDS
SS Liover Peguero, A+
This is one of the easiest decisions any team will make this week. Peguero cracks top 100 lists, has room for more development and can flash all five tools. The Pirates’ No. 5 prospect, per Baseball America, could very well be their shortstop of the future. He’ll start in Altoona next year, and if Max Kranick, Rodolfo Castro, Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz are any proof, he could be on the major league radar by the end of the season.
OF Travis Swaggerty, AAA
Had it not been for Swaggerty injuring his right shoulder diving back on a pickoff play in May, he most likely would have already made his major league debut and be on the roster. A first-rounder in 2018, Swaggerty skipped AA and went straight to Indianapolis after Cherington said the was the most consistent offensive performer at the team’s alternate training site in April. All reports on his shoulder post surgery have been good, and he’ll be a full participant in spring training. He’ll get the call at some point in 2022.
UPPER-LEVEL ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Cherington has said that in his opinion, once a player reaches Class AAA, they aren’t really prospects anymore. They’re potential major league contributors. If you have to carry someone the whole year on the major league roster, there’s obvious appeal in choosing someone who has faced higher-level talent. These are the notable players eligible for Rule 5 from Class AAA Indianapolis and AA Altoona.
RHP Cody Bolton, AA
Bolton’s stock has taken a nosedive over the past few years. After getting promoted to Altoona at 21 years old in 2019 after posting a 1.61 ERA in Class High-A, he missed all of 2021 with a right knee injury. Before then, he was listed as a reliever for the Curve, despite having only been a starter to this point. He has a good sinker and slider and can command the zone, but now two years removed from his last professional game, the Pirates will have to make some decisions about his future, most notably if they want to use a roster spot on him.
LHP Omar Cruz, AA
One of the five players the Pirates got from the Padres in in the Joe Musgrove trade, Cruz was one of the few Pirate minor-leaguers who got a midseason promotion getting the call to Altoona and posting a nearly identical ERA (3.45) as he did with Greensboro (3.44). He is going to need to rely on his changeup that drops and looping curve to get the job done because of his low-90s fastball. Perhaps a transition to the bullpen will help him find a few extra ticks on the heater and help him get more whiffs. For now, though, he looks like a depth starter with some funky mechanics.
RHP Yerry De Los Santos, AAA
De Los Santos was eligible to hit free agency last week, but opted to sign a minor-league deal with the Pirates instead, perhaps signaling that he will have his contract selected. Why else would he turn down the chance to look for other playing opportunities? De Los Santos’ biggest issue is just staying healthy. He’s already had Tommy John surgery and missed several months this year with a forearm injury. The trade off he’s been quite good when he is healthy, recording a 1.44 ERA over 50 innings in 2019 and allowing just four earned runs with 25 strikeouts over 23 ⅔ innings with Altoona and Indianapolis. While not a huge reliever prospect, the 23-year-old has a mid-90s fastball that can occasionally ramp up a little higher and a good slider. If he stays healthy, he profiles as a legitimate bullpen arm.
RHP Travis MacGregor, AA
I hesitated to put MacGregor on this list because after not pitching in two years (Tommy John surgery in 2019, no season in 2020), he posted a mediocre 6.25 ERA over 90 ⅔ innings with Altoona. His inclusion here is for one reason, which is because after last year’s Rule 5 draft, an industry source told me they were very surprised nobody selected him. I really don’t expect him to be added to the Pirates roster, but I’m putting him here on the off chance that some team decides to take him now, knowing he at least is healthy enough to get through a whole season.
1B Mason Martin, AAA
Altoona’s Most Valuable Player this season, Martin may have taken home the Willie Stargell Slugger of the Year award if it wasn’t for his teammate, Oneil Cruz. The Pirates’ farm system is deep, which is why Martin is either barely on or just missed the last part of their top 30, depending on which outlet you reference. There’s humongous power potential, but it comes with him striking out in over one-third of his plate appearances. His other tools aren’t going to get the job done: He’s either got to cut down on the strikeouts or hit for enough power that he can be the Pirates’ homegrown version of Joey Gallo. If he can do the latter, it would be a tremendous boost to a Pirates offense that ranked near the bottom of the league in just about every slugging category this year.
OF Cal Mitchell, AAA
I’ve already done a piece on the Pirates’ outfield crunch, featuring four prospects who are Rule 5 eligible. There’s no path for all four getting added, and while Mitchell only had a pretty good year in Altoona, posting a 106 wRC+ with six stolen bases, the Pirates love his makeup as a player. I personally don’t see him as a huge upside guy, but will grant that his floor is probably the highest out of the bunch of outfielders we’re gonna be looking at here.
OF Canaan Smith-Njigba, AAA
Smith-Njigba was acquired from the Yankees in the Jameson Taillon trade last January. While he has good raw power, it has never really translated into games, slugging just .406 this season for Altoona. The trade off is he’s done a terrific job working counts and drawing walks, posting a .398 on-base percentage. He profiles as a corner outfielder and there’s unexplored ceiling still here. He was promoted to Indianapolis at the end of the season and has slashed .313/.459/.438 in the Arizona Fall League, giving a good final impression before the roster decision is due.
RHP Hunter Stratton, AAA
Hunter has no relation to Chris Stratton, but his pitch profile is somewhat similar: Low-to-mid 90s fastball with high spin secondary offerings. A former 16th-round pick, Stratton is one of those pitchers who noticeably improved despite there not being a season in 2020, becoming the Curve’s closer before being promoted to Indianapolis. There are still some walk issues and he can be inconsistent with his delivery, but he gets movement and can miss bats. There’s room to still develop him and he could probably pitch in the majors right now if needed.
OF Jack Suwinski, AA
Out of Mitchell, Smith-Njigba and Suwinski, I view Suwinski as the least-likely to get added to the roster this week, mostly because I think he is the least likely of the trio to be poached via Rule 5. After several middling years as a pro, actually signing at 17 with the Padres, he broke out this year, posting a .949 OPS and 150 wRC+ with the Padres’ Class AA affiliate before being traded to the Pirates in the Adam Frazier deal. I had one analyst tell me that using their formula that weighs results and peripherals, Suwinski actually had the best season of any Pirate minor-leaguer this year. But he’s never played in Class AAA, only has the one good season under his belt and is prone to whiffing on pitches in the zone. There’s obvious appeal, but is that worth a roster spot right now?
LHP Blake Weiman, AAA
I may as well include Joe Jacques in this entry too as they’re both as left-handed reliever options, something the Pirates don’t have much of at the moment. Both posted an ERA in the mid-4s in their first year with Indianapolis, which is hardly inspiring, but both are strike throwers with a good feel for the zone and an above-average breaking pitch, even if they won’t light up radar guns. Neither is on anyone’s top 30 prospect list, but the Pirates traded Braeden Ogle -- who profiles very similarly to these two -- at the deadline because they figured a lefty reliever was the most likely player type to be taken in the draft.
LOWER-LEVEL ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
This is where things could get tricky. Players taken from the lower levels are obviously higher risk, but taking anyone through Rule 5 is a risk. Last year’s draft was different obviously without a minor-league season to base anything from, but the Pirates did end up acquiring two players who had last played in Class A in Oviedo and Soriano. Just because you’re in the lower-levels doesn’t mean you’re safe, but ideally you’d like to sneak them through rather than use a roster spot and an option year for a player who won’t help the major league team that season. Here are the players in Class High-A Greensboro and Low-A Bradenton who qualify.
RHP Santiago Florez, A+
Florez is a high-spin guy who can get some serious strikeout numbers, fanning nearly 35% of his batters faced in Bradenton over 10 extended outings. He then got the call to Greensboro and recorded a 7.53 ERA over 43 innings. He’d be best served as a two pitch pitcher, sticking with the fastball and curve, which means he’s probably best suited as a reliever. He’s most likely going to be passed over this winter, but he’s one of my early 2022 sleepers.
C Abrahan Gutierrez, A-
Gutierrez was originally supposed to be acquired from the Phillies in the Tyler Anderson deal that fell through, but was eventually shipped over in the Ogle trade, with one team source mentioning it’s a lot easier to sneak a Class Low-A catcher through waivers than a AAA reliever. So Gutierrez isn’t getting added, this year at least. There were concerns with his framing skills at the time of his acquisition, and his average exit velocity hovered in the mid-80s all season. But he can control the zone at the plate and can be tough to strike out. Any future hopes of him being a big leaguer one day is probably going to depend on if he can stick at catcher.
RHP Michell Miliano, A+
I hesitated to include Miliano at all because I don’t see any way he is selected, but decided to put him on in case anyone thought to themselves, “wait, didn’t the Pirates get another prospect in the Frazier trade?” Miliano was the third player to come along, the almost stereotypical project reliever prospect just to sweeten the pot at the end. He has some good stuff, featuring a curve with good spin and movement and a mid-90s fastball at just 21, but he is wild and inconsistent with his mechanics. While it was over a sample size of just 20 innings with Greensboro, Miliano actually walked more batters (26) than he struck out (23) after the trade. He won’t be taken in this year’s Rule 5 draft and he won’t have his contract selected by the Pirates. If he tightens up his control, though, and has a strong 2022 season, then he might be someone worth revisiting this time next year.
OF Lolo Sanchez, A+
This year’s recipient of the Omar Moreno Baserunner of the Year award -- and a pupil of Moreno’s -- Sanchez went from hitting 13 home runs in his first five years stateside to hitting 17 in 2021. Sure, Greensboro is a hitter’s park, but he actually had a significantly higher OPS on the road (.877) than home (.768). Is it possible that those first seasons in America were just growing pains and Sanchez finally broke out at 22? It’s not unreasonable, but if a team was looking for an outfielder with a similar profile, Suwinski has played a level higher than Sanchez.
RHP Tahnaj Thomas, A+
FanGraphs loves Thomas, placing him at No. 90 in their top prospect list. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline have him just missing the Pirates’ top 10 prospect list, and he would comfortably be top 10 for a lot of other teams. The downside is he’s never pitched more than 60 2/3 innings in a season, and he just pitched to a 5.19 ERA with Greensboro. He’s got one of the best fastballs in the Pirates’ system, but his secondary stuff can disappear on him. He’s very raw, but that top 100 grade could be justified if he can bring it all together. That’s a big if, though, and the question for now is if the Pirates can sneak him away one more year or if he needs to have his contract selected now.
RHP Eddy Yean, A-
Over the year, my conversations with league and team sources about Yean have gone from: He was a sleeper starter, to, he might not be able to give you five, to, he’s probably a reliever. Not a great trajectory for someone still in Low-A, but don’t write him off..His stuff is huge, touching the very upper-90s on occasion with a slider that plays well off it. The problem is he is inconsistent. That fastball could be in the lower-90s on a given day. He is prone to walk problems and more than a few rallies got away from him, hence the 5.27 ERA. It would be shocking if someone took him via Rule 5, so the Pirates do have some time to develop him still. But if you’re looking for a front of the rotation starter from that Josh Bell trade, you’re not getting one.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
INF Liover Peguero, OF Travis Swaggery, 1B Mason Martin, OF Cal Mitchell, OF Canaan Smith-Njigba, RHP Yerry De Los Santos
I’ll admit, I don’t feel that confident with my picks. It’s one thing to only add one pitcher, even a reliever, out of my six spots. It’s another to add three players who can only play the outfield, one who is a first baseman only and an infielder who won’t be on the major league radar until September at the earliest. I’m going based on talent here and assuming the roster will sort itself out as the winter progresses. Stratton, Thomas and Bolton are my honorable mentions, in that order.
