ALTOONA, Pa. -- OK, so everybody's really disappointed right now in the Nittany Nation. As you should be.
There's good reason to be disappointed after the way this season has unfolded. But there's also potentially some good news and bad news on the horizon for the Penn State football program.
Let's dive into some predictions for the future, both in the short and long term.
Good news: A much-needed win should be just days away
It had better be. Because if Penn State doesn't beat Rutgers this week, then all kinds of s*** will hit the fan.
The Lions are favored by 17.5 points for the home finale, and they should be able to comfortably beat the Scarlet Knights.
The bottom line in football is that one win can turn around a lot of things in a hurry -- calming everyone down and restoring confidence. Even if it's not against a great opponent.
If Penn State beats Rutgers, the players will have at least some momentum to carry into the regular-season finale at Michigan State. The Spartans are beatable, absolutely, so the Lions will have a chance to close with a solid victory there and finish 8-4. That would at least make fans back off the ledge a little bit when it comes to the state of the program.
"We'll find a way to get a win next week," James Franklin said after Saturday's 21-17 loss to Michigan.
As long as he does, Franklin will quiet the critics a little bit. If he can beat Michigan State, as well, some positive vibes will return.
Bad news: Rutgers might not be a total pushover
I can't fathom what would happen if Penn State loses this week. It would be a disaster.
Could it happen? Rutgers won at Illinois a few weeks ago, 20-14. Illinois, of course, beat Penn State.
The Scarlet Knights then got destroyed at home by Wisconsin, 52-3, but they bounced back with a 38-3 thrashing at Indiana.
This game will be Rutgers' Super Bowl this season. The Scarlet Knights will be fired up, while Penn State may still be feeling down about its season collapsing. The Lions had better be ready to play, and if they are, they should beat Rutgers and regain some confidence.
Good news: Two more wins could provide a chance to play another good team in a good bowl game
If Penn State goes 8-4, I think it heads to the Outback Bowl against an SEC opponent. That would be an opportunity for a win over a quality opponent and three-game winning streak to end the season.
If all that happens, the program can go into the offseason with momentum and wouldn't have a giant cloud of disappointment hanging over its head.
Bad news: The opposite of what I just wrote
If Penn State loses to Michigan State, it's 7-5 and likely gets a trip to the Music City Bowl in Nashville against a weaker opponent. A win there would help, sure. But you'd really have to wonder about the team's mental state at that point and if the players would even care about that bowl game.
A 7-6 finish is not out of the realm of possibility, and that would be humiliating for a team that was No. 4 in the country a month and a half ago.
Good news: I don't see Franklin going anywhere
I'm including this as good news, even if some people will disagree.
I've gone back and forth on Franklin's future for several weeks and had gotten to the point where I felt he would leave for USC or LSU -- if offered.
I just don't see how those programs could still want Franklin now. I believe he has played himself out of consideration for those jobs by this disastrous 1-4 skid, so even if he wanted to go somewhere else, those places would probably pass.
Prediction: Franklin will be Penn State's coach for at least four more years
I could end up being wrong here if USC or LSU do still want him. Because if they do, I absolutely believe Franklin will leave.
But if those schools don't want him, I just don't see many other jobs that Franklin would want to leave for -- and that would want him -- opening up in the next few years. There are only so many jobs in the country better than the Penn State job, and very, very few of them actually might be better for Franklin to take. USC is one of those jobs; LSU is not.
So if he sticks around through this set of openings, I just don't see him going anywhere for a while. His contract runs through 2025.
You decide: Is that good news or bad news that Franklin could be here a lot longer?
There are probably a whole lot of fans on each side of that argument.
I think Penn State can get a better football coach than Franklin. I'm not sure it can get a better CEO or recruiter.
It's a shame we can't morph what Franklin does well with the qualities of another coach who would be much better than he is on game days and other sheer football stuff.
Ultimately, I'll lean toward the side of good news that Franklin should be sticking around. He does give the program a level of stability, and that will help with recruiting and planning for the future.
Good news: After all this, hopefully Franklin will stop flirting with other programs and holding Penn State hostage
It's ridiculous having to go through all of this every year or two. Sure, when a coach is successful, his name will pop up in connection with other jobs. And I totally get why Franklin would play coy about the USC and LSU jobs, because no matter what Penn State fans might want to believe, those are better jobs and Franklin has every right to consider leaving for those places.
But enough is enough. This job stuff has been a big distraction for the Penn State program this season. Franklin may never want to admit that publicly, but it's obvious.
He has been distracted. And for as good of as CEO as he is, he's not a great enough football coach to be able to overcome all of those huge distractions and stay 100 percent focused on the incredibly difficult job he has coach a team in the Big Ten East.
Here's my personal plea to James Franklin: After this season, when your name comes up in connection with another job, you should come flat out and dismiss it right away. You owe that to Penn State and to Penn State fans after what you've put everyone through this season by failing to handle the distractions.
Bad news: It appears Franklin made a big mistake hiring Mike Yurcich
The offense has been a massive disappointment this season. ALL of it has to fall on Yurcich's shoulders. It's his system, he was the golden boy brought in to fix things, and it's his mess to clean up.
I don't see Franklin firing Yurcich. He can't. Because ...
Good news: Top QB prospect Drew Allar remains committed
This is a big part of the future for Penn State. I don't know if Allar will be a college star, but he is the No. 1 QB prospect in the country.
He's also apparently linked strongly to Yurcich. So even if Franklin wanted to move on from Yurcich after this season -- and he would have every right to fire him based on the poor results -- the coach cannot risk letting Yurcich go and having Allar decommit.
Bad news: Penn State's offensive line is terrible, it's been terrible and why should we believe it won't continue being terrible?
Does it even matter if Allar or any other star quarterback comes to Penn State? If this is what the Penn State program is going to get out of the offensive line, then this program will never, ever achieve its goals.
Here's where things get interesting: Who's fault is it that the offensive line is so bad?
Just about everyone I hear from blames position coach Phil Trautwein. Hey, he's the guy responsible for putting together a good offensive line, so he has to take a lot of the blame.
But I think a big part of all this is the offensive system. And that means Yurcich gets a lot of blame for the offensive line problems, as well.
This offense is designed to throw a ton of passes. It's an offense designed to work in the Big 12. It is not, from what we have seen, an offense designed to work in the Big Ten.
I've been writing and saying this all season, but the offense does not seem to be designed to have linemen line up with the intent of knocking dudes on their rear ends. It's a finesse offensive line, set up to pass block and not to impose its will on the opposing defensive line.
I believe Trautwein will be fired after this season. Franklin is going to have to make changes, whether he wants to or not, just to show everybody that what has happened this year is not acceptable. He can't fire Yurcich, so Trautwein will be the one to take the fall.
Good news: Penn State has an excellent recruiting class
The Lions are currently ranked No. 4. They'll likely finish up around 6th to 8th, once other teams right below them add more commits.
Bad news: I don't know why people think this recruiting class is going to be the savior of the program, or of Franklin
It's a really, really good class. But again, it'll likely finish 6th to 8th, so it's not like we're talking about a truly elite class or a bunch of 5-star dudes. Oh, and you know what, Ohio State has the No. 6 class right now with only 16 commits, so it very well could finish above Penn State in the final rankings.
Ohio State is already better than Penn State, and Ohio State could have a better recruiting class than Penn State.
Ohio State also has a better head coach than Penn State in Ryan Day.
So, this notion that Franklin is going to miraculously become a better head coach just because he's got a good recruiting class is silly.
As is the notion that a bunch of these recruits are going to make huge impacts next year. They won't. That's not how college football works at the highest level.
Sure, some of Penn State's top freshmen will play a lot next season. Maybe Allar will play some. But as I have pointed out time and time again, I'd rather Penn State bring in an experienced quarterback from the transfer portal than to start a true freshman next season.
I don't care how good the freshman is supposed to be or his recruiting rankings or whatnot. Quarterback is the most important position in all of sports, and it's extremely rare that you ever get a true freshman who's ready right away to step in and be a starter at a place like Penn State.
Good news: If the Lions get a good QB from the portal, things could turn around next season
I don't believe Sean Clifford will be back next year. He could return if he wants to. But honestly, he's an average college quarterback, and we've now seen that for three years of him starting.
It's time for Clifford to move on. It's time for Penn State to go and see if it can find someone better.
If there's a great QB in the portal who would fit Yurcich's system better, then go out and get him.
Bad news: Next season probably won't be any better, and could be worse
The Lions are losing a lot of good players, and even losing Clifford -- if he does decide to move on -- could cause problems. Yes, he's only average, but you never know what you're going to get with any quarterback. Even if a good one comes from the portal, there are no guarantees he'll be better than Clifford.
Jahan Dotson will be gone. He's probably gonna win the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's best receiver. The secondary will lose Jaquan Brisker and Tariq Castro-Fields. Defensive end Arnold Ebiketie will be gone.
If I had to make a record prediction for next season right now -- based on nothing but what I expect back for Penn State -- I can't go any higher than 8-4, and probably would lean toward 7-5.
If by some chance Franklin does leave, then all bets are off the table, because there will be no way to predict what would happen with all the fallout from that.
