Pitt delivered the bounce back win it needed against Duke after losing to Miami.
Now, the real test starts. The Panthers are back to being ranked No. 25 by the Associated Press and No. 21 in the College Football Playoffs, but now face a team that dropped from being No. 10 earlier this season, and just beat No.9 Wake Forest last week. It has the possibility of being a decisive game in Pitt's hopes of winning the ACC Coastal, as Pitt leads with a 4-1 conference record with Virginia close behind at 4-2, Miami at 3-2, and North Carolina at 3-3-3.
The Panthers have to worry about all three times now that they lost to the Hurricanes two weeks ago, and a loss to either North Carolina or Virginia over the next two weeks could all but eliminate their hopes of winning the division and going to the ACC Championship game. It's a huge game, and maybe the most important at Heinz Field in the Pat Narduzzi era.
• What: Pitt (7-2, 4-1 ACC) vs. North Carolina (5-4, 3-3 ACC)
• When: 7:32 p.m. Eastern
• Where: Heinz Field
• TV: ESPN
• Radio: 93.7 The Fan
• Satellite: Sirius 84, XM 84, SXM App Channel 84
• Boxscore: Sidearm Sports
• Media notes: Pitt | North Carolina
Top storylines
Stop Sam Howell: Pitt's defense has looked dominant in most of its wins by limiting opponents' passing game, but in its two losses to Western Michigan and Miami it surrendered 357 and 426 passing yards. The biggest problem the Panthers have struggled to stop this season has been accurate quarterbacks who can hit receivers around the field.
Now they face quarterback Sam Howell, who was widely considered a preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. He's fallen behind several ACC quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett, Virginia's Brennan Armstrong and Wake Forest's Sam Hartman, but he's still a legitimate threat in an offense that he's very familiar leading. Like Pickett, Howell has taken several North Carolina all-time records. He leads the program with 9,635 career passing yards, 88 career touchdowns, and his 283.4 passing yards per game over his career is the second highest in conference history behind only Jameis Winston.
This season, Howell averages 267.6 passing yards per game and has thrown 20 touchdowns with seven interceptions, but also has eight rushing touchdowns. It's that dual threat that still makes him dangerous at all times even when his passing game is bottled up. Last week against Wake Forest he completed 16 of 26 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown, but also ran 21 times for 104 yards and two touchdowns. He's not only athletic, but thick at 6-foot-1, 225 lbs.
"The thing you notice out of him, he looks like he's 235," Narduzzi said Monday about Howell. "He runs like a tailback. What you didn't see the last two years is his ability not only to scramble, but now they've got designated quarterback runs. We prepared real hard for all their draws. They're going to run a lot of quarterback draws against us. Not as much counter and power with him. We've seen enough of that this year with other athletic quarterbacks. I notice about him, just the way he's dropping back, then running quarterback draws, scrambling, making plays with his feet. That's something I did not see in the past that he has added to his game."
Pitt's linebackers SirVocea Dennis, Phil Campbell and Cam Bright will have to be on high alert to cover over the middle but also watch for when Howell wants to take off and make big plays with his legs. If they can limit him that way, it will take away a facet of the Tar Heels' offense that has came up in clutch moments in some of their tougher wins this season.
Make offense, your best defense: Pitt's defense also have to watch out for North Carolina's top running back Ty Chandler, who's 884 rushing yards is third-highest in the ACC and his 13 rushing touchdowns is tied for the second-most in the conference. The Panthers did a solid job of bottling up the conferences' second-leading rusher in Duke's Mataeo Durant last week when he was held to just 89 yards on 24 carries for an average of 3.7 yards per carry.
But it may be a lot to ask a Pitt defense to both lock down Howell from airing it out, prevent him from running, and limit a talented running back. But like last week, Pitt's offense can help with that. Once the Panthers established a 31-19 halftime lead over Duke, Durant's presence on the ground was limited. That might need to be what happens to force the Tar Heels to be one-dimensional and let the defense key in on just Howell as the primary threat.
Pitt has the highest scoring offense in the country with 45 points per game. North Carolina has given up 33.4 points per game, second-worst in the ACC just above Duke's 35.6 points per game. If the Panthers can start fast on offense and combine that with some early stops, it could have both sides playing the kind of aggressive football that's won most of Pitt's games this season. But if North Carolina is allowed to keep it close, look for that offense to start hitting with the balance that it brings between the run and the pass. That can lead to this being a recipe for disaster.
Players to watch
SirVocea Dennis: I made him a player to watch last week, but he's going to be vital again this week. He's taken over the full time mike linebacker duties after Wendell Davis' transfer from the team, but he's filling in very nicely for the defense. Last week he rewarded Pitt's decision to put him there with six tackles, and one of them being him meeting Durant right at the line of scrimmage on a 4th and 1 to get a huge turnover on downs for the Panthers.
Now Dennis will be calling the defensive switches and keeping the group together while plugging the middle against an offense with two running threats in Howell and Chandler while also maintaining coverage.
"It's a big deal," Narduzzi said when asked about the linebackers' challenge this week. "You try to cover downs. It's hard to rush three against this guy because he'll take off, going like Kenny did last weekend. It can be deadly. You’ve got to cover. They're going to keep you honest with all the RPOs. They're going to keep you honest with pass and draw. I mean, that's kind of their run-draw-action-pass stuff."
North Carolina will try to keep Pitt guessing and that will challenge the football IQ Dennis as a redshirt junior. But since last season Dennis has shown to be a true student of the game. Watch to see how he matches up in this game.
Gavin Bartholomew: The start of the season was the Lucas Krull show for Pitt's offense as he quickly tallied five touchdowns in a few weeks. But like Pat Freiermuth for the Steelers, Bartholomew has brought new life to Pitt's offense as a willing blocker and a dangerous receiving threat.
He's a true freshman who scored a 29-yard touchdown last week, and it was his second of the season. Pitt's offense has begun to feature him as a capable blocker at the point of attack and he's become a secondary option for Pickett after the likes of Jordan Addison and Jared Wayne. Bartholomew doesn't have stellar numbers yet, but he's made at least one reception for seven straight games and shows sticky hands whenever he's thrown the ball while Krull has dropped several passes in recent weeks.
Look to see if Pickett finds ways to feed Bartholomew over the middle.
John Petrishen: Normally I wouldn't feature two linebackers to watch, but the way Petrishen's played in recent weeks demands attention. He's recorded a tackle for loss in all but two of Pitt's games this season and exploded for 13 tackles last week against Duke. He's also recorded three interceptions, including one in each of Pitt's last two games.
Petrishen's a hardworking graduate who's made himself extremely reliable to almost always be in position and help against the run while coming to help against the pass at the right times. He's a heady player who will come in handy against a team that likes to run like North Carolina, and could be part of the Panthers' plan to keep an eye on Howell for scramble opportunities.
Watch to see if Petrishen has another game changing play this week, because if he does, it would make his rise for Pitt's defense a big part of the second half of the season.
Behind enemy lines
Abuse the line: Howell is talented, but the best way to disrupt him will be to crush North Carolina's offensive line. It's not a good group like Pitt has developed, and the 34 sacks it's surrendered this season is the most in the ACC. In North Carolina's loss to Georgia Tech early this season, Howell was sacked eight times by the Yellow Jackets. That's half of Georgia Tech's total sacks this season as the Yellow Jackets' 16 sacks ranks 12th in the conference.
Pitt has 31 sacks coming into this game, which is second-best only behind Syracuse. This needs to be a game where Habakkuk Baldonado and Calijah Kancey take over the line of scrimmage and make life rough for Howell in the pocket. If they can be the disruptors, it will open up more chances for those linebackers to finish the job if Howell ever escapes. Narduzzi preaches a "kill, not capture" mentality against mobile quarterbacks that emphasizes pass rushers to be aggressive while maintaining their gaps.
Star receiver: Make no mistake, North Carolina isn't just about Howell and Chandler. The Tar Heels currently have the ACC's leading receiver in Josh Downs with 1,014 yards on 74 receptions for eight touchdowns. He's the only receiver in the ACC with more yards than Addison and is a fast playmaker just like him.
"Everybody has a slew of receivers," Narduzzi said. "Their Downs kid, our Jordan Addison, two matchups I can't imagine. People will be coming from everywhere. Heard there is to be 36 scouts going to be at the game, obviously watching both ball clubs. It's going to be a battle at Heinz."
Damarri Mathis will most likely draw the matchup with Downs as Pitt's best cornerback, and it could be a huge matchup all game to keep an eye on. But if Pitt's pass rush and run defense can disrupt the Tar Heels' rhythm, maybe that helps Mathis out and limit how many times Downs will get targeted.
Prediction: Pitt 52-42
I've seen the over-under for this game set at 73 points. Listen, if you want easy money, bet the over this week.
Pitt's defense does have advantages to it that can cause some matchup problems for North Carolina's line and get after Howell, but this looks like a game that will be a barnburner. Both teams will score in bunches at different points and it will be about which offense can be the most consistent.
What works in the Panthers' favor is along with Pickett being an elite college quarterback this season, Pitt's offensive line has taken true strides to be a powerful and responsible group in run blocking and pass protection. I see Pickett's rhythm being interrupted far less than Howell's all night and that builds an early lead for Pitt. Howell will bring it closer late, but then the Panthers' offense will turn it on late and you can expect to see Israel Abanikanda and Rodney Hammond Jr. closing it out on the ground.
