ALTOONA, Pa. -- Micah Shrewsberry has a tough job. He is the right man for the job, the top candidate Penn State could have hired, but anyone taking over the Nittany Lions would still face the same challenges.
Penn State is a football school. One with very little basketball tradition.
The Lions have been to only nine NCAA Tournaments ever, and just five since 1965 (although they would have made it in 2020 if not for the tournament being canceled).
Patrick Chambers was forced out a year ago prior to the start of the season, and Jim Ferry did a nice job on an interim basis as he had a team that battled and battled every night out and won some big games. But the Lions finished 11-14 overall and 7-12 in the Big Ten.
Many of the key players decided to transfer, but Shrewsberry was able to convince big man and glue guy John Harrar to return, as well as solid scorer Seth Lundy. Those guys coming back is big, and Shrewsberry also added veteran depth from the transfer portal, most notably Siena guard Jalen Pickett.
There are some reasons to think this year's Penn State team will perform well, and those reasons primarily are experience and guard play.
The problem -- and it will always be this way -- is that it's just so difficult to win any game in the Big Ten. This is the best conference in college basketball from top to bottom in most years. It's not only tough to beat teams at the top, it's also difficult for Penn State to beat teams at the bottom, because those teams know their best chances for wins come against the Lions, so they don't want those opportunities to slip away.
The Lions open the season at home Wednesday night against Youngstown State.
Before I get to my game-by-game predictions, let's take a look at what's expected in the Big Ten this season. Here's the preseason projected order of finish by Athlon:
1. Michigan
2. Purdue
3. Ohio State
4. Illinois
5. Maryland
6. Michigan State
7. Indiana
8. Wisconsin
9. Rutgers
10. Iowa
11. Northwestern
12. Nebraska
13. Penn State
14. Minnesota
Just looking at that prediction, you know the Lions could have a really tough time in the Big Ten this season.
The good news is Shrewsberry put together a schedule with a lot of what should be easy wins against much lesser competition in the non-conference slate. I have Penn State starting 4-0 and going 7-4 in the 11 non-conference games.
The bad news is, of course, the brutal Big Ten grind. I have the Lions going 6-14 in the conference, and that might even be a little generous because finding six wins could be tough.
Add it all up, and I have Penn State finishing 13-18 overall in the regular season.
Here are my game-by-game predictions for the season:
Nov. 10 vs. Youngstown State -- Win
Nov. 15 at UMass -- Win
Nov. 18 vs. St. Francis Brooklyn -- Win
Nov. 22 vs. Cornell -- Win
Nov. 26 vs. LSU (Emerald Coast Classic in Fla.) -- Loss
Nov. 27 vs. Oregon State or Wake Forest (Emerald Coast Classic in Fla.) -- Loss
Dec. 1 vs. Miami (Big Ten/ACC Challenge) -- Loss
Dec. 5 vs. Ohio State -- Loss
Dec. 8 vs. Wagner -- Win
Dec. 11 at Michigan State -- Loss
Dec. 18 at VCU -- Loss
Dec. 22 vs. Quinnipiac -- Win
Dec. 29 vs. Delaware State -- Win
Jan. 2 vs. Indiana -- Win
Jan. 5 at Northwestern -- Loss
Jan. 8 vs. Purdue -- Loss
Jan. 11 vs. Rutgers -- Win
Jan. 16 at Ohio State -- Loss
Jan. 19 vs. Minnesota -- Win
Jan. 22 at Iowa -- Loss
Jan. 26 at Indiana -- Loss
Jan. 31 vs. Iowa -- Win
Feb. 5 at Wisconsin -- Loss
Feb. 8 vs. Michigan -- Loss
Feb. 12 at Minnesota -- Loss
Feb. 15 vs. Michigan State -- Loss
Feb. 21 at Maryland -- Loss
Feb. 25 vs. Northwestern -- Win
Feb. 28 vs. Nebraska -- Win
March 3 at Illinois -- Loss
March 6 at Rutgers -- Loss
