While free agency technically started Wednesday, Sunday marks the first day players are able to sign with any of the 30 teams. Unlike the other major North American sports, that first day will most likely be quiet, as things don’t normally pick up until the Winter Meetings in December.
It’s tough to forecast when a team will start to make moves, but it’s hard to imagine the Pirates taking longer to dip into the free agent market this year than they did last winter. While they made several big trades in December and January, with a few minor-league contracts sprinkled in, they did not sign their first free agent to a major league contract until after pitchers and catchers reported.
As Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton enter year three of their tenure, finding a way to improve and try to prevent another bottom-four finish should be a priority. Free agency is a prime way to do it.
“We're focused on a combination of where do we have opportunity on the major league team, and where can we be opportunistic in the market,” Cherington said recently. “Players that we think both fit potentially on the team and we feel maybe haven't reached their full potential and/or coming off maybe a tougher season for some reason, or just guys that we think we can connect with on a coaching level. As part of our continued overall strategy of building the strongest talent base we possibly can, at the major league level and the upper level, extending that to 50, 60 players, not just 26 players, and we want to use free agency to do that, to keep us moving in that direction.”
The Pirates will, predictably, not have the resources to make a huge splash on the market, but last year’s payroll finished at just over $50 million, according to the in-depth work by Ethan Hullihen. Going by MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections, Bryan Reynolds is currently slated to be the team’s highest paid player in 2022 at a modest $4.5 million. There is money to spend, even if it’s just to reach last year’s payroll.
So what should the Pirates’ offseason shopping list look like? Let’s take a look, with some candidates that I believe would be good fits.
POWER
This is a very wide net to cast, but let’s be honest. Unless your name is Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings or Ke’Bryan Hayes, you don’t have a guaranteed spot in the lineup.
Rather than split hairs of if the Pirates need one corner outfielder or two, or if the outfield is fine but the middle infield options aren’t good enough, or which prospects are major league ready, let’s just cut to the heart of the problem: This team needs some pop.
Last season, the Pirates ranked dead last in team slugging percentage (.364) and home runs (124). There are plenty of ways to score a run, but the long ball is the fastest, and it’s an area the Pirates have struggled at since the league-wide home run explosion in 2016.
To show how dire it was, the Pirates had just three players with double-digit homers in 2021: Reynolds (24), Gregory Polanco (who was released at the end of August but hit 11 before then) and Colin Moran (10).
The Pirates have some internal options who could help. Hayes’ wrist injury probably slowed him down and he has the potential to hit more than six homers in a season. Expect to see a lot more Oneil Cruz next year. Mason Martin is on pace to make his debut sometime in 2022.
But they can’t put all of their eggs in the prospect basket. They need to bring in someone who can help.
Yoshi Tsutsugo is a very logical choice. The two sides have already engaged in dialogue and there is interest on at least the Pirates’ side. Brad Miller is another player who has some defensive versatility and is good for about 20 or so homers a year. Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler’s strong postseason showings will definitely help their markets, but they were worth 0 and -0.4 WAR on the season, respectively. Soler still hit 27 homers on the year (and 48 in 2019) and Pederson’s swing is tailor made for PNC Park’s short right field porch. Would a DH job with occasional reps in the outfield be an enticing enough offer for either?
ANOTHER CATCHER
In the grand scheme of things, finding another quality catcher to play behind Stallings is pretty low on the list of priorities this offseason. That said, while there are good catching prospects in the minors in Henry Davis, Carter Bins and Endy Rodriguez, none of them will be ready for the majors until 2023 at the earliest.
The Pirates got a taste of what life without Stallings would be like late in the season when he went to the concussion injured list. If that was an extended stretch midseason, that would have spelled trouble.
Cherington has let go of the club’s backup catcher two years in a row with Elias Diaz in 2019 and John Ryan Murphy in 2020, and Michael Perez could make it a hat trick this winter. His best case scenario is that he goes into spring training competing for a job. And after a year where he hit just .143, had a .511 OPS and was worth -0.9 fWAR, that might be too optimistic.
It’s a very weak market for catchers, but there are a couple options out there. Chance Sisco was on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list in 2017 and 2018, and while he did well at the plate in 2019 and 2020 in the majors, this past season was just a disaster. He’d need to be coached up on defense, but there’s a good support system in place with Stallings and major league coach Glenn Sherlock.
Cherington kicked the tires on Robinson Chirinos in 2019, though nothing serious came from it. He’s 37, but with the exception of the abbreviated 2020 season, he’s had a wRC+ over 100 in each of the last seven seasons. Pedro Severino profiles as a defensive reclamation project while also providing a respectable enough bat and three years of team control. And hey, Luke Maile is back on the market, if the Pirates want to go down that road again.
The past two years, the Pirates have opted to bring in a couple catchers to compete for the backup job behind Stallings. That’ll probably happen again in 2022.
STARTING PITCHING
If the 2021 season taught us anything, it’s that you can never have too much pitching.
Right now, the Pirates’ rotation has serious boom or bust potential. Mitch Keller had a very up and down season that averaged out to be pretty mediocre in 2021, even if he and the coaches believe he took some positive steps after being recalled from Class AAA Indianapolis. JT Brubaker started strong but became very homer prone as the season progressed, with Oscar Marin saying at the end of the season the focus needs to be on his body and strength to help him finish outings and go deeper into the season. Bryse Wilson is a former top 100 prospect, but he had some trouble consistently missing bats or the barrel. Steven Brault has been on the shelf often, but is usually effective when healthy.
Mix in a handful of prospects like Roasny Contreras, Miguel Yajure and Max Kranick and there is hope for the unit to improve in 2022, but there are a ton of “what ifs” too. What if the rookies struggle? What if Keller and Wilson never live up to their promise? What if Brault and Brubaker just can’t stay healthy for a full season? If they don’t get a few breaks, that rotation could flounder.
Better question: Why risk going through all those what-ifs? Add some starter depth, like they did with Tyler Anderson last year. A reunion with Anderson would make sense, especially since Shelton was complimentary of his clubhouse presence on top of his reliable results.
Reclamation projects and lower upside, backend starters are probably the best bets in the Pirates’ price range. Dylan Bundy was roughed up in 2021, but he received some Cy Young votes in 2020. Yusei Kikuchi has never really clicked stateside, but he has good whiff, chase and strikeout rates. Andrew Heaney is seemingly always on the cusp of a breakout that has never happened.
BULLPEN
Last year, Pirate relievers threw 642 ⅔ innings, the second-most of any National League club, only behind the Padres. Of those 642 ⅔ innings, 252 came from pitchers who are no longer on the 40 man roster. That’s nearly 40%.
So not only do they not have any proven late-inning options other than David Bednar and Chris Stratton, they need reinforcements in numbers too. There are a couple players who could help form the minors, including Blake Cederlind midseason once he completes his rehab from Tommy John surgery, Nick Mears and potential roster additions Yerry De Los Santos and Hunter Stratton, but that’s not enough arms to bridge that gap.
It will be interesting to see how the Pirates approach the reliever market, especially when it comes to the closer spot. Bednar could take the job next year, or the Pirates could float the position to free agents as a selling point to sign with a rebuilding club. If the Pirates are looking for a closer, Brad Boxberger revived his career with the Brewers this year and put up 41 saves with the Rays back in 2015. Archie Bradley has barely ever gotten a chance to close, but his stuff and makeup scream closer. Adam Ottavino is in the same boat as Bradley.
If the plan is to make Bednar the closer, then there should be more middle relief options available after more roster cuts over the next month. That shouldn’t be used as an excuse to not focus on making the bullpen better. The Pirates are not in position to throw away wins because the bullpen couldn’t get it done. They have one really good backend reliever. They need more, if for no other reason than to preserve those wins and help build confidence with a young team.
