There's no magical reason why Kenny Pickett has become one of college football's top quarterbacks. It may appear that way from a bird's-eye view for analysts like Mel Kiper Jr., who now has Pickett ranked as his top quarterback for the 2022 NFL Draft, but not to those who've been around Pickett throughout his career.
Pickett's often been described as a warrior for how hard he fought through Pitt games over his five seasons with the Panthers, but this year his numbers exploded. He went from averaging 12.6 passing touchdowns per season over the last three years to throwing 23 touchdowns in his first seven games in 2021.
The difference this year can be attributed to several factors between Pickett's accumulated experience, Pitt providing him the best assortment of weapons on offense he's had and the offensive line's drastic improvements throughout the season.
But at the core of Pickett's sensational play through the first half of Pitt's season is his ability to pick apart defenses with his decisions on the field. Each week, Pitt has relied on Pickett to take shots for big plays on deep passes, check it down to the soft spot on defenses, or tuck and run for gains on the ground to keep drives alive.
He's done all of that this season while protecting the ball better than any quarterback. Despite throwing the ball 244 times, 18th-most in college football, he's still only thrown one interception. The only other quarterback who's thrown more than 200 passes in FBS is Ole Miss' Matt Corral, who's also been a consensus first round graded quarterback among NFL Draft experts.
The Panthers' defense has recorded seven interceptions this season, fifth-most in the ACC, and has grown better as the season's continued. But defensive coordinator Randy Bates acknowledged after Pitt's Tuesday practice that he wasn't sure how to gauge his defense during the offseason because of how Pickett was dicing them up during scrimmages.
"I wasn't sure how good we were going to be because we just couldn't stop him," Bates said of Pickett's work in camp. "Ultimately I'm glad he's as good as he is because it's made us better. It's showing right now. He makes tremendous decisions. He runs when he needs to and is smart enough not to take a hit. On Saturday he had to make some big plays and threw his body in there but he also knew where he didn't have to do that."
Having Pickett to push Pitt's defense has helped that side of the ball, and Pat Narduzzi mentioned how Pickett with Pitt's receivers have given Pitt's defense an advantage in preparation because of how sharp the Panthers' passing game is compared to Pitt's week-to-week opponents.
"Kenny's been outstanding," Narduzzi said of Pickett Thursday. "The defense has gotten better every week. But when you face one of the best in practice, both with Kenny at with our receivers, you don't go out each week thinking you're facing better receivers than we have. We have the receivers who can test our guys during the week."
Pickett has hit on several big plays throughout the year, but he's not a quarterback who drops back and only looks for the bomb. He goes through his progressions with a patiently urgent pace that goes with the flow of what a defense presents to him pre-snap. If a team brings a blitz, he knows he either has to create a play with his legs. But if a team isn't getting pressure, he knows which routes on a given play he can allow to develop.
He also knows when to attack different matchups each week, as he's an intense student of the game. Watch this play against Clemson when he saw he had single coverage against Melquise Stovall, a quick receiver who's dangerous with the ball in his hands.
Clemson has a cornerback lined right on top of Stovall, but as soon as the ball is snapped you can see the cornerback's hips open to his right and him give up inside leverage. Pickett saw it too, and knew that meant Clemson was in a zone defense. That meant all he had to do was hit Stovall early in his slant before the linebacker could come to help, and doing so led to a big play:
It's hundreds of decisions like that week after week that have built Pickett's 2021 resume.
"That's where the maturity comes from for him," Bates continued on Pickett. "Just throwing the ball to where it needs to go, there's been some throws where you know it was perfectly thrown so that nobody could catch it but our wide receivers."
That level of consistency with Pickett's decision making comes directly from his countless hours of film study over the years as he's worked to understand his own tendencies, those of his teammates, and what each defense he faces every week tries to do with their defensive looks.
When asked if he's involved in those preparations during his Thursday press conference, Narduzzi put his hands up while noting he keeps away from that part of Pickett's week.
"I'd mess him up if I did that," Narduzzi said. "Too many cooks in the kitchen messes up the pasta. Just use the sauce and get it going. Coach (Mark) Whipple does a great job. My job is to have coaches I trust to do their jobs. The only time I talk to Kenny is on Friday night dinners. We'll talk about life, mom and dad coming to the game and things like that. But coach Whipple's got it."
Pickett not only knows where his players and the defense will be most plays, but he has an internal clock that keeps him on task to make the right throws at the right times. Watch this touchdown pass to Jordan Addison, who's a game-time decision for Saturday, as Pickett waited for Georgia Tech's defense to open up.
Pickett knows that once Addison crossed the face of the Yellow Jackets' safety, all he needed to do was get in between their linebackers and the throw would be there:
And that pinpoint accuracy has been crucial to pulling off moments like that.
Pickett's rise may be a surprise to many, but it's not to Pitt's tight end coach Tim Salem, who recruited Pickett as a three-star quarterback from Oakhurst, N.J. back in 2017.
"There's no question," Salem said when asked if this is what he expected of Pickett. "I knew that when I had a chance to watch him back in Jersey as a little kid. In a matter of months he grew from 6-foot to 6-foot-2. Kenny sees things in slow motion and has great poise. Every play is important to him. I've seen him in baseball games where he would, with no effort, steal bases, throw guys out from deep left field and slap doubles. Kenny likes to compete and that's who he is."
Pickett looks like he lives for big moments because often times when games are on the line, he's found ways to deliver. Even in Pitt losses, he's been the player that gave the Panthers a chance. Last year in Pitt's first loss of the season to N.C. State, Pickett led a 75-yard touchdown drive to give the Panthers a five-point lead with less than two minutes to go.
Pickett even threw an accurate pass to Taysir Mack for the two-point conversion, but it was dropped. Pitt's defense followed that up by allowing the Wolfpack to walk down the field and score the game-winning touchdown in a 30-29 loss. Had Mack held onto Pickett's two-point conversion pass, the Panthers, at worst, would've forced the game to overtime.
The next week Pickett led Pitt on a game-tying field goal drive on the road against Boston College. That was before he threw a touchdown pass in overtime that put Pitt in position to force a second overtime, until Alex Kessman missed the extra point and Pitt lost.
A big difference this year for Pickett has been how his teammates have backed him up in the clutch moments of games to put Pitt on top. Look back at his 39-yard touchdown pass to Mack on a fourth down call vs. Clemson Saturday. Pickett got the alignment he wanted from Clemson, recognized the zero coverage and took the shot on a deep ball to Mack for a huge score that gave Pitt its first lead of the game:
What's big about that play is not just that Mack caught it and Pickett's read and throw counted, but also that Pitt's coaches knew they could count on Pickett and the confidence from players to coaches that they were going to make it work.
"I heard the coaches talking on third down that we had two downs," Pickett said of his touchdown pass on fourth down to Mack after the game. "I saw the coverage that we had and it was great call by coach Whip (Whipple). Taysir ran a great route. I knew pre-snap that I had it and all I had to do was make sure I didn't overthrow it because he was so wide open."
When games get tight, many players aren't able to process what's going on around them and work to just be the fastest or most aggressive to win in key moments. But that's not what happens for Pickett.
"Kenny sees things in slow motion," Salem said. "When everything speeds up in the game with the clock ticking and guys flying around, Kenny just sees where everyone is and knows what he needs to do. He studies film, takes notes and listens to everything. He has a ton of knowledge from different coaches and so much in his head that he processes things while he's thinking on his feet."
Pickett certainly does think on his feet, especially when they're moving and he's forcing defenses to worry about him as a potential runner. He's not the fastest, but he's athletic enough to beat defenders if they're not paying attention and that can freeze intermediate defenders who have coverage responsibilities.
But Pickett couples that with his ability to accurately throw on the run downfield past tight coverage. Here's his first touchdown against Clemson when he rolled to his right on a designed play. You can see Clemson's defense fighting to contain Pickett rolling to his right, but Kenny kept his eyes downfield and saw Addison had a step on his man heading the back pylon, and that was all he needed for a window to fit the ball through:
Pickett has gotten the job done for the Panthers in so many different ways.
He doesn't always need a clean pocket, and he doesn't always need his receivers to break wide open for him to hit them for big plays. He also doesn't need either of them when he knows he has enough space to get the yards himself.
Watch this critical third down conversion by Pickett when he had two defenders to beat on a scramble to the first down marker on the sideline. He knows big-hitting Clemson linebacker James Skalski has a quarterback spy on him, but also knows he has the speed to beat him to the marker. He even beats safety Nolan Turner, who had the angle to catch Pickett, by diving with the ball stretched out to ensure the conversion:
That's built the platform Pickett stands on at midseason as he continues to get national praise.
Some quarterbacks bring a cannon arm that's unmatched in how far they can zip a pass on a rope to a receiver, while others bring exceptional speed or exceptional size that make defenses have to worry about their physical prowess in one form or another.
Pickett doesn't excel in any one direction with his physical gifts, but he's combined them to look the best of his class through seven games. He's shown each week that he's prepared for his opponent and is willing to take whatever role is necessary as a passer, a runner, or a facilitator of Pitt's running backs in the ground game.
If Pickett makes one poor decision on a play, he's shown the ability to shake it off and not make the same one again. At 23 years old, his maturity shows as a collegiate quarterback who's become the best at making decisions on and off the field for Pitt.
When the Panthers lost against Western Michigan, they had to quickly rebound with their ACC schedule starting in just two weeks. The day after that loss, Pickett called a players-only meeting that challenged everyone around the roster to be better and not allow the mistakes that led to one loss to lead to a landslide.
From seniors like Damarri Mathis to freshmen like Rodney Hammond Jr., Pitt players have praised Pickett for that day and the tone it changed for the team. Narduzzi did as well Saturday after Pitt's win over Clemson.
"That team meeting that Kenny called, getting everybody together," Narduzzi said. "It comes down to the senior leadership, Kenny Pickett's leadership. You're only as good as your team. If you're a player-led team, you have a chance with Kenny. I hope all our young guys learn from Kenny Pickett."
Whether it's waiting to split a cover two zone, knowing when to take off on a scramble to keep a drive alive, or when to call an important meeting to rally his teammates, Pickett's decision making has been the engine that's driven Pitt's run to be midseason ACC favorites.
