Two days after the Chargers and Browns spent three hours kicking conventional wisdom in the shins, Mike Tomlin addressed a football trend that shows no signs of abating: NFL coaches are growing increasingly bold on fourth downs.
And not just late in games when time and score traditionally have prodded them to take more risks. Analytics, athleticism and offensive efficiency are the main ingredients in a casserole that have whet the appetite of a league once slow to embrace change.
Not that Tomlin and the Steelers are eager to partake — at least right now.
“We acknowledge that more people are going for it than ever before,” Tomlin said Tuesday at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. “Quarterback mobility has a lot to do with it, but obviously that’s not how we are built.”
A smiling Ben Roethlisberger confessed to resembling that remark, but the 39-year-old, creaky-kneed quarterback said Wednesday that he’s joked with Tomlin about wanting to take a few more chances on fourth down.
“ 'It’s not hard to quarterback sneak, Coach Tomlin,' ” Roethlisberger said as he deadpanned in front of reporters.
Tomlin will never be confused for a football analytics savant, but in his defense, the team’s sputtering offense hasn’t forced many fourth-and-short decisions. Pittsburgh is one of three teams yet to convert a fourth down this season, going 0 for 5 on plays that required 4-, 10-, 2-, 4- and 5-yard pickups.
Make no mistake, there are coaches around the league eschewing old ways of thinking about possession downs. It will be interesting to see whether Tomlin and the Steelers adopt a similar philosophy once Roethlisberger retires and they employ a more mobile quarterback.
The Chargers and the Browns showcased the daring that is fueling the league’s fourth-down explosion Sunday in Los Angeles’ 47-42 win. Led by analytically-minded coaches Brandon Staley and Kevin Stefanski, the clubs combined for seven attempts. Staley and Chargers went 3 for 3 on their tries, and drew a defensive pass-interference penalty on a fourth attempt.
Early in the third quarter, the Chargers converted a fourth-and-2 from their own 24-yard line on a 9-yard run by Austin Ekeler and followed it up with a fourth-and-7 pass from Justin Hebert to Keenan Allen for 9 yards. The drive resulted in a touchdown and it pulled the Chargers within six points en route to improving to 4-1.
Staley mentioned two members of the franchise’s analytics department during a Monday appearance on the Jim Rome Show before offering a window into his fourth-down decision-making, which clearly includes information culled from player-tracking data supplied by the league.
Overall, the Chargers’ offense has converted all seven of its fourth-down tries this season, while its special teams failed on its lone attempt with a fake punt.
“Our communication has been good and these models we go into the game with are specific to each week, to each opponent, (and includes) where we are playing, what the game conditions are, who’s on the other side of the football — all that good stuff,” Staley said.
In the NFL’s new information age, high-powered attacks, operated by young, mobile quarterbacks, are exhibiting much less fear of failure. Nowadays, almost all the rules favor offenses, and they are using them to retain possession.
Fourth-down bids have been steadily on the rise, reaching a league-record total of 658 last season, according to Michael Lopez, the NFL’s director of football data and analytics. That total includes more than 200 attempts in the first and second quarters, according to a New York Times study.
Teams are even more aggressive through the first five weeks of this season. The go-for-it rate on fourth-and-1s is at 66.9 percent, according to Lopez, while fourth-and-2s are humming along at a 36.6 percent clip. Lopez said it’s safe to say those are historic figures through the first five weeks of any NFL season.
“I assume the appropriate answer is analytics, I guess, because it’s become such a big thing in the NFL,” Roethlisberger said when asked for a reason for the escalation. “People want to put trust in their quarterback or their offense or whatever it is and they figure, ‘Why not take another shot with it?’ I think if you’re in a manageable situation, why not?”
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Nick Foles catches a touchdown pass in Super Bowl LII on a play dubbed the "Philly Special."
Joe Banner understands many in the testosterone-rich, Alpha Dog-dominated world of football have an aversion to advanced metrics. The sight of math symbols and the talk of ratios and probabilities transport some back to their darkest days of algebra, calculus and statistics classes.
But Banner, 68, said the use of analytics in football was never intended to supplant traditional ways of coaching the game and devising strategies. It’s a teaching companion, or as Tomlin calls it, “a tool.”
“I don’t care what field you are in, the more information you have, the better decision-maker you become,” said Banner, who served as a team executive for the Eagles and the Browns. “This is where the world is heading.”
Banner explains his theory on fourth-down attempts in a way the average fan can grasp. They might not agree with it, but he communicates it in a relatable language.
“If you go for it on fourth down and make it, it’s the same as a turnover — you’ve saved a possession,” Banner said. “For 50 years, we’ve heard that if you win the turnover battle, you win the game. Well, one of the ways to win the turnover battle is to successfully go for enough fourth downs that you get extra possessions and increase your chances of winning dramatically. You don’t need to get a PhD to figure that out. It’s sixth-grade math.”
Context is important. Franchises that often lead the NFL in fourth-down tries are the ones with losing records, ones that frequently play from behind. But when Banner entered the league in 1994 with the Eagles, he was put off by the “well, it’s always been done this way” mentality.
Emboldened by baseball’s analytics revolution, Banner solicited the help of statistical wizards from MIT and the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Eventually, he helped build the league’s first analytics department in Philadelphia.
He used it for a variety of football-related objectives: coaching, contract negotiations, scouting. Banner was among the early executives to recognize the importance of slot corners as offenses made increasing use of the middle of the field. As the game evolved, player-tracking data provided teams with a copious amount of information that required analysis, processing and interpretation.
“Fifteen years ago, if you said, ‘I don’t think the 40-time is all that important,’ you would have been laughed out of the building,” Banner said. “Not to say it’s irrelevant because it isn’t, but the more information you have, the better. That’s my attitude. If you put too much emphasis on it, you can easily mislead yourself and chase the wrong guy.”
Banner spent only one season with the Browns in 2013 — they led the league in fourth-down attempts (31) and conversions (14) — before being fired. His analytical approach made a strong enough impact on owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam that they hired “Moneyball” guru Paul DePodesta several years later to take a deeper diving into advanced metrics.
The Steelers’ division rivals, Cleveland and Baltimore, have emerged as two of the league’s most innovative franchises in applying analytics to the game. They were well positioned when the NFL released its player-tracking information to all 32 teams in 2018. The intel can assist coaches in many ways such as how to measure which receivers gain the most separation on which routes and how offenses can fatigue defensive linemen with play-calling.
It’s the kind of granular detail Staley was referencing in his fourth-down conversation with Rome.
“There’s a lot of overlap because the teams that are open-minded and going for fourth down are also the teams hiring analysts that handle tracking data,” said Ben Baldwin, a developer of the website NFLfastR.com. “In recent years, the Ravens and Browns have been the primary ones who have hired a bunch of analysts. . . . Those are the two teams that are the gold standard for making sense of the tracking data.”
Despite their run of six Super Bowl titles, the Steelers appear behind the curve in the information arms race.
“That is absolutely my experience in talking to people,” Baldwin said. “They are very low especially relative to the Browns and Ravens. They are very much being left behind in all of this.”
Information alone doesn’t win football games. Blocking, tackling and common sense remain as vital as ever. The Jaguars have one of the NFL’s biggest analytics staffs. They’re also riding a 20-game losing streak, and recently hired Urban Meyer, a coach with no previous NFL experience and seemingly little use for advanced metrics.
“They clearly have a divide in the building,” one NFL executive told ESPN. “I don't understand why anybody puts a big investment in this stuff and then also entrusts the most key roles (to) folks who don't want to have anything to do with it.”
Banner was long gone from the Eagles in 2017 when they converted two fourth downs in their Super Bowl victory over New England, including the goal-line gadget play dubbed the “Philly Special” that produced a Nick Foles touchdown. His pioneering use of advanced stats earned Banner a shoutout at the 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
“There have been a couple of jumps in a willingness to go for it on fourth down, and they usually follow one of these high-profile successes,” Baldwin said. “That was certainly the case after the Eagles won the Super Bowl.”
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BEN BALDWIN
About 30 minutes before the Chargers and Browns began trading fourth-down chances, Bengals coach Zac Taylor faced a pivotal decision of his own Sunday afternoon.
Cincinnati had a fourth-and-2 at the Green Bay 39 with 31 seconds remaining in regulation. Instead of trying to convert it and give his rookie kicker a more manageable attempt, Taylor waved quarterback Joe Burrow to the sideline. Evan McPherson’s 57-yard bid clanged off the upright. In overtime, the Bengals elected to eschew a fourth-and-1 from the Packers’ 32 only to see McPherson send a 49-yard effort wide left.
On a day both kickers struggled, Green Bay survived to claim a 25-22 victory.
“We know there are inherent risks in going for it on fourth down,” Baldwin said. “But it’s not like field goals are guaranteed.”
Or, point-after-attempts.
Kickers tied an NFL record over the weekend with 12 missed PATs. It makes you wonder whether some coaches will start going for two with more frequency.
Since 2015
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 12, 2021
PATs: 93.7%
2-point: 48.5%
48.5*2 = 97
just sayin
Nobody was as aggressive as Tomlin in 2015 and 2016 after the league moved the spot for PATs from the 2- to the 15-yard line. The Steelers converted 11 of the 20 chances in that span as Tomlin took advantage of a lineup that included Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell.
But since failing to convert four two-pointers in a 35-30 loss to the Cowboys in 2016, Tomlin has adopted a more conservative mindset. The addition of rookies Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth this season sparked questions regarding his willingness to revisit his old philosophy.
“You know, I’m always open to that,” he said in July. “When I feel comfortable with our ability to win those moments, I like to be thoughtfully aggressive.”
The Steelers have yet to attempt a two-point try this season. Then again, they have a quality kicker in Chris Boswell, who’s converted all 10 PATs and 8 of 9 field goals.
Tomlin’s game management on fourth downs has been solid despite the club’s 2-3 start. However, the Steelers’ execution on such plays has drawn howls of protest for repeatedly throwing well short of the marker and hoping the pass catchers can gain the necessary yardage.
It’s not that Tomlin has been historically conservative with fourth-down decision-making. The knock comes from not showing consistency in his approach, according to some in the analytics community. In last year’s playoff loss to the Browns, the Steelers went 3 for 3 in trying to rally from a 28-point, first-half deficit. Tomlin was heavily criticized in some circles, however, for electing to punt on a fourth-and-1 from the Pittsburgh 46 to start the fourth quarter after having cut the Browns’ lead to 35-23. Even Kevin Kelley, the original fourth-down daredevil of coaching, offered comment on Tomlin's call.
“That was probably one of the worst (fourth-down) decisions all season,” Baldwin said.
Again, context is key when analyzing calls. Last season, the Steelers were dead-last in rushing. This year, the problem hasn't been fourth down, but the three preceding it as the Steelers break in a new offensive line.
His point about Roethlisberger’s lack of mobility also shouldn’t be misinterpreted. Teams with quarterbacks able to run pose a much bigger threat to defenses because they must account for them.
Just look at the AFC with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Burrow, Herbert and even Baker Mayfield. All six are capable of picking up a few yards on fourth downs. Jackson can turn a fourth-and-1 into a 40-yard touchdown dash. It’s a new era as quarterbacks come out of college posing dual threats.
Those days are gone for Roethlisberger. Asked if he minded his coach citing his lack of mobility in his last two Tuesday news conferences, the quarterback grinned.
“I agree,” Roethlisberger said before walking back to the locker room.
If the Steelers can build on their offensive performance in a 27-19 win over the Broncos, Tomlin might be more willing to unfurl his inner-Staley. For now, it sounds as though he will let other coaches inherit most of the risk and reward, fun and sorrow, associated with fourth-down calls.
“Analytics is a tool, but it’s not the tool because all circumstances are different,” Tomlin said. “There is an uptick in fourth-down attempts in the National Football League because there is probably more quarterback mobility than ever before. ... What analytics may tell us as it pertains to that might speak to that quarterback mobility, but that’s not a component of play for us, so we don’t make decisions exclusively based on an analytics.”
Translation: Tomlin is not going to be “thoughtfully aggressive” too often on fourth downs. At least for now.
