ALTOONA, Pa. -- Penn State and Iowa both enter this week's No. 3 vs. No. 4 showdown with 5-0 records, riding long winning streaks and hoping to continue on a path to the College Football Playoff.
The No. 3 Hawkeyes have won 11 in a row since starting last season 0-2, including a 41-21 victory at Beaver Stadium last year. Penn State hasn't lost since that game, reeling off nine straight wins.
These are two good teams, obviously, since it's a matchup of top five squads.
But I do think Iowa has the better team. And while it won't be a popular opinion in PA, I'm picking the Hawkeyes to win, 26-23.
Here are my five reasons:
1. I don't trust Penn State's running game
We've been talking all season about how the Nittany Lions' issues running the ball would eventually catch up to them. This looks to be the game that will happen.
While Sean Clifford and the passing game have looked very good -- and could do so as well in this game -- I just don't have a lot of faith in Penn State's offensive line when it comes to run blocking. Especially in key short-yardage situations, the likes of which are sure to come up from time to time in this game.
Noah Cain had a big game and scored the eventual winning touchdown the last time Penn State visited Iowa in 2019, a 17-12 victory. But Cain has not looked good running the ball this season. Keyvone Lee is a good back, and so is John Lovett, but I just don't see them having many running lanes against this outstanding Iowa defense.
Penn State rushed for only 62 yards in last year's loss to Iowa, while the Hawkeyes had 175 rushing yards.
2. On the flip side -- Iowa could have a good day running the ball
Penn State has a very good defense, giving up just 12 points per game, and is coming off a shutout against Indiana.
But while the defense has been good overall -- and particularly in the red zone -- the Lions struggled stopping the run against both Wisconsin (185 yards) and Auburn (182). If they give up anything close to that many yards against the Hawkeyes, they're going to be in trouble.
Iowa has a balanced offensive attack with quarterback Spencer Petras and running back Tyler Goodson. No, Petras is not a great college quarterback, but he is a good fit for this system and can make the throws he needs to make to complement the strong running game.
Don't just think that Iowa is gonna line up and run it all the time, either. The Hawkeyes went to Maryland last week and used the pass to set up the run, throwing a lot on early downs.
3. The Hawkeyes don't beat themselves
Go back to the Wisconsin game, a 16-10 PSU victory, and the Badgers moved the ball up and down the field, only to shoot themselves in the foot with bad plays inside the 10-yard line. Put another way, Penn State very easily could have lost that game if Wisconsin had not looked incompetent in those situations.
The Hawkeyes are not going to beat themselves like Wisconsin did. They never do. Iowa is always one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the country, and that will matter in a game like this.
I believe Iowa will move the ball on Penn State's defense with its balanced attack and have a number of opportunities in the red zone. The Lions' bend but don't break style will come into play with some stops, but the Hawkeyes will find a way to score enough to win.
4. Iowa's defense and the turnover stuff
No question, a huge part of the Hawkeyes' success this season has been because of forcing turnovers. They're tied for the lead in the nation with 16 (12 interceptions), and all those short fields have produced a bunch of points.
Here's what I think will happen against Penn State: The Lions will have a tough time running the ball, putting more pressure on Clifford to do everything himself. That's when Clifford will make a mistake or two with a bad throw for an interception.
The way to beat Penn State's offense is to focus heavily on taking away the deep ball and forcing the Lions to sustain drives. They have had a tough time doing that for much of the year, which Iowa surely knows and will try to exploit.
Look for the Hawkeyes to try and keep everything in front of them, limiting PSU's big pass plays and forcing Clifford to take underneath stuff. Now, Clifford did have a 68-yard TD pass to Jahan Dotson in last year's game, so something like that is always possible given how good Dotson is at getting separation.
But for the most part, Penn State is going to have to earn everything it gets against this defense, and without a strong running game, it's going to be tough.
5. Some intangibles
Penn State has won the last three meetings at Kinnick Stadium, including by slim margins of 17-12 two years ago and the Trace McSorley walk-off TD pass to Juwan Johnson for a 21-19 win in 2017.
You'd think that would give this Penn State team a lot of confidence going into Iowa, and you'd be right. Clifford and these Lions know they can win there.
But I look for Iowa to use those two close losses as fuel to not let it happen again. This is the best team the Hawkeyes have had in years, and they'll know how important it is to protect their home field.
I felt like Penn State was a better team than Wisconsin, which I wrote and said numerous times before the season opener. I also said that if those two teams were playing in week three or four, I would pick PSU to win. The biggest reason I picked the Badgers wasn't because I felt they were better, but because it was an opener and the Lions had too many questions to feel confident that they could go on the road and win in a place like Madison.
In this game, I honestly do feel like Iowa is the better team. I believe their defense is better than Penn State's defense, and with the Lions struggling to run, I just don't have enough confidence in Clifford to be able to do everything against a strong defense.
Lastly, I want to give Kirk Ferentz a lot of credit for adapting and changing his coaching style over the years. Now, Ferentz hasn't reinvented the wheel when it comes to being aggressive, but he used to be soooooo conservative that it was painful to watch Iowa play.
The Hawkeyes have entered the modern era of football with a more balanced offensive attack, and Ferentz has loosened up some over the years to where he'll now take some chances. There's a reason he's the longest-tenured coach in FBS at 23 years, and it's not because he has refused all efforts to change.
