ALTOONA, Pa. -- Penn State has two of the best wins of any team in the country so far -- at Wisconsin and vs. Auburn -- and has been rewarded justly with a No. 6 national ranking. With such a ranking comes the increased hope that the Nittany Lions could make the College Football Playoff for the first time.
Will they get into the playoff?
Here are five reasons to believe Penn State can make it:
1. The defense
The Lions have been outstanding so far, holding Wisconsin to 10 points, Ball State to 13 and Auburn to 20. That's 43 points in three games and would have been even lower if not for playing a bunch of deep reserves late against Ball State.
This could be the best secondary Penn State has ever had. It's remarkable that PSU has never had a defensive back selected in the first round of the NFL draft, but this team has two potential first-rounders in safety Jaquan Brisker and cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
The linebackers have been very good so far, and while it's not a great unit, it looks to be a strong group.
The defensive line was a question mark entering the season, but it has played well. Wisconsin and Auburn both rushed for a lot of yards, but the line and defense have toughened up when it's mattered most. End Arnold Ebiketie is an NFL player.
Right now, Ohio State's defense doesn't look all that good. So if the Lions can play a strong defensive game when they go to Columbus next month, it might only take 24-28 points to win. That helps Penn State's chances there.
2. The schedule allows Penn State to control its own destiny
To think that the Lions will go undefeated against this schedule is unrealistic at this stage. But one loss will NOT kill Penn State's chances of getting to the College Football Playoff.
It just depends on which game the Lions may lose.
The trip to Iowa will be tough. The trip to Columbus will be tough. But Penn State already is ranked high enough and still could be ranked high enough if it loses just one game in the regular season.
Right now, it's safe to say that Penn State can lose to Iowa and still get to the playoff. As long as it goes to Ohio State and wins, which would put the Lions in position to win the Big Ten East and go to the Big Ten championship game.
Beating Iowa and then losing to Ohio State could be a big problem, if the Buckeyes win the Big Ten East and then win the conference championship game. It's hard to see the Big Ten getting two teams in, since Ohio State already has a loss to Oregon.
If Penn State cannot even get to the Big Ten championship game, its odds of being selected for the CFP drop dramatically.
This season, then, ultimately could come down to the Ohio State game.
What else is new?
3. Sean Clifford is a different QB this year
Clifford has been really good so far. He was, without a doubt, the biggest question mark entering the season, and to his credit, he looks like he's made all the strides everyone had hoped to see.
Clifford completed 28-of-32 against Auburn, which is fantastic. He showed great poise and patience in the pocket, which he's done all season, and is no longer panicking by taking off and running when things looked bleak, like he did last season.
If Clifford keeps playing like this, Penn State's offense will have a chance to move the ball against anybody it plays. He is experienced and has a lot of weapons, and all he has to do is trust the system, trust the playcall and trust his teammates to make plays instead of feeling like he has to do everything himself.
4. The offense can only get better
MIke Yurcich has a proven offensive system that works and puts up a lot of points. We've really only seen the tip of the iceberg with this offense, which has big-play capability and a lot of weapons.
Go back to 2016, and it took a quarter of the season before Joe Moorhead's offense really starting clicking on all cylinders. In the best-case scenario, this offense, with Clifford continuing to play well, will really start to take off in the next few weeks.
If so, by the time the trip to Ohio State rolls around, you'd like to think the offense could go to Columbus and put up 30 points or more. That would give Penn State a chance to win.
5. The running game has to get better, and once it does ...
If Penn State can run the ball effectively, coupled with how Clifford is playing, it would make this team really, really good.
Right now, the only thing that has not worked well is the running game. As the offensive line gets more cohesive, there are so many good running backs that you'd think the group will start to produce in a big way before too long.
OK, so all of that is the glass half full stuff. And taken collectively, those factors should have Penn State fans feeling very optimistic.
However ...
Nothing is guaranteed at this point.
So, here are five reasons to believe Penn State will not make the College Football Playoff:
1. The schedule is brutal
Iowa is off to a great start and will be fired up for Penn State to visit in a few weeks. The Hawkeyes clobbered the Lions at Beaver Stadium last year, 41-21, and this year's Iowa team looks to be even better.
Even if Penn State wins at Kinnick Stadium, it still leaves the trip to Ohio State on Oct. 30. I watched the Buckeyes struggle against Minnesota and then lose to Oregon. But that team has a lot of good players on both sides of the ball and an outstanding coaching staff, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Ryan Day and those guys will have things figured out by the time Penn State visits.
Do we really expect Ohio State to lose again?
So, Penn State very well may have to win that game at the Horseshoe in order to win the Big Ten East, get to the conference championship game and advance to the College Football Playoff.
Oh, and let's not forget Penn State still has Michigan coming to Happy Valley and a trip to a much improved Michigan State team to end the regular season.
If the Lions can navigate all of that with an 11-1 record, it would be amazing. But if the loss is to Ohio State and PSU doesn't get to the Big Ten title game, it will be difficult to reach the CFP. Two losses, and the playoff dreams are over.
2. The running game could be a problem
We can all just assume that the running game will get going, but as of right now, it has been the weakest part of the team.
Penn State is not going to be able to go to Iowa and Ohio State and win with this kind of running game. It would put way too much pressure on Clifford, and while he has played well, he hasn't been asked to win games all by himself just yet.
3. The offensive line
This is part of the run game issues. The line has looked outstanding in pass blocking but has not gotten the job done in run blocking so far.
Will the line improve in run blocking? It should. But until it does, it will remain an obstacle to having the kind of all-around team that can get to a playoff.
4. If something happens to Clifford ...
Then this team will be in big trouble.
No way Penn State makes the playoff if Clifford goes down and has to miss some big games. He's been smart so far in not taking off and running so much, but with this meat grinder of a schedule, keeping him healthy will always be a major factor.
5. Franklin's in-game coaching
James Franklin is a phenomenal college football CEO. But let's be honest, how many of you fully trust that he will make the right decision in a crucial moment against an Ohio State or an Iowa with the game on the line?
Is it fair to question Franklin in those situations? Yes, absolutely, because he has come up small in some big situations during his Penn State tenure.
So, if the game and a College Football Playoff berth ultimately are on the line at Ohio State, every decision Franklin makes will be magnified. That may not lead to a lot of confidence from many in the fan base.
