ALTOONA, Pa. -- Sean Clifford is the most important player in college football to his team. No, he's not the best player in college football this season. But we're talking relative value here.
If Penn State's third-year starting quarterback plays really well, this could be a 10-win season -- perhaps even better -- for the Nittany Lions.
But if Clifford struggles or can't play for some reason, well, Penn State went 4-5 last year, and another .500 or worse season isn't out of the realm of possibility. There's no proven depth behind him, so it's really Clifford or bust.
All eyes will be on Clifford when No. 19 Penn State opens the season vs. No. 12 Wisconsin at noon Saturday in Madison, Wis. Any and all season predictions that have been made by just about everybody start with, "Sean Clifford has to do ..." or something like "It all depends on Sean Clifford."
How will Clifford perform against the Badgers?
I honestly don't know.
Neither do you. Or James Franklin. Or new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich.
We all can speculate and say Clifford will do this or that or whatever, but nobody really has any idea. We don't know for sure how the quarterback, who got off to a bad start last season as PSU opened 0-5, will handle everything in the new system while playing a tough, physical opponent on the road.
If Clifford plays well, Penn State can win. If he plays poorly, the Lions could get blown out.
As for Clifford himself, he has never lacked for confidence, and seems to have an abundance of it right now.
"I can really say that I'm the most confident quarterback in the country," Clifford said this week, "because of the guys around me, the way I've prepared and the way everybody else has prepared. So I'm excited to get after those boys in Madison."
Here's a look at who has the advantage in this game:
OFFENSE
PSU: We should have great faith that Yurcich's system will produce a lot of points. It always has, everywhere he's been. And PSU has a lot of weapons at running back (Noah Cain, Keyvone Lee, John Lovett), wide receiver (Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington) and tight end (Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson). Even the offensive line is supposed to be pretty good. Clifford doesn't have to do everything himself, like he felt he needed to do early last season after the running back depth was depleted and before we all truly knew what Dotson can do. The big question is just how long it will take the offense to really click on all cylinders. Will it be in the opener? Will it take a few weeks? We'll find out. But the guess here is there will be some rust and a learning curve in this one, plus the Lions are going up against a good defense.
WISCONSIN: We all know the Badgers will run the ball a lot. Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi beat out Jalen Berger for the starting job, but neither has proven himself just yet to be the kind of star running back Wisconsin usually has. The offensive line will be really good, because if it's not, it would be a sign that the world might be ending. The Badgers have an excellent tight end in Jake Ferguson and what's expected to be a solid receiving group. The big difference with this Badgers team compared to most is that QB Graham Mertz can beat a defense with his arm. He was a 4-star recruit and the No. 3 pro style prospect in the country, and he showed at times as a freshman last year that he can be a big threat throwing.
Advantage: This is a tough one, because I don't think the Yurcich system will be sharp yet. So I'm going Wisconsin.
DEFENSE
PSU: The second-biggest question on the team, behind Clifford, is whether the defensive line will be good enough to stop a strong running team or a balanced offense. The Lions lost Shaka Toney and Jayson Oweh to the NFL, then Adisa Isaac got injured, so that's three good ends who have to be replaced. We've heard great things about Temple transfer Arnold Ebiketie, but he and the other linemen have a major challenge awaiting against this Wisconsin O-line. The secondary could be one of the best in Penn State history, and the DBs will have to be able to come up and help in run support, while also being leery of Mertz throwing the ball.
WISCONSIN: The Badgers were terrific defensively last year and are expected to be once again. But they don't know exactly what Yurcich and Clifford will be trying to do, so Penn State has that bit of mystery on its side. Then again, Paul Chryst and his staff surely have been watching lots of film from Yurcich at Texas and Ohio State and Oklahoma State, so they should have some idea of what the Lions will try.
Advantage: Wisconsin. This will the difference in the game.
COACHING/INTANGIBLES
PSU: I'm of the belief that this is a bad matchup in many ways for the Lions. It's an early start (noon, 11 a.m. local time) on the road against a ranked team that runs the ball well and will be playing in front of a packed crowd. Penn State almost always gets off to slow starts in these kinds of games -- looking sluggish, not tackling well, etc. James Franklin has had all offseason to make sure his players are fired up right from the get-go in this one. We'll see if the Lions are ready.
WISCONSIN: Paul Chryst does a really good job with the Badgers, who know their identity and stick to it. Being at Camp Randall should make a big difference in this one with the fans returning. It will be good to see Jump Around again. What a tremendous college environment.
Advantage: Wisconsin
PREDICTION
Wisconsin 34, Penn State 26: I think we'll see a lot of points, so as I predicted earlier in the week, if you want to bet this game, take the over 50.5.
