ALTOONA, Pa. -- Welcome to our first PSU B1G Story, where we will have daily updates focusing on everything you need to know about Penn State football. Today, we are breaking down the entire schedule and giving you a game-by-game prediction.
There also are some important notes at the bottom, and if anything happens later in the evening, it will be added to this story.
Now, on to the predictions. Let us know in the comments what you think of each game, and the overall season record prediction.
AT WISCONSIN (Sept. 4)
This is a very intriguing matchup, but also a bad matchup for the Nittany Lions in a season opener. If this game were to be played in, say, week three, I'd probably pick PSU. If it were at Beaver Stadium, I'd certainly pick PSU. The concerns just run too deep here for me to have much confidence in picking the No. 19 Lions, and Vegas agrees, which is why the No. 12 Badgers are 4.5 point favorites.
Wisconsin is going to run and run and run, just like it always does. My biggest question mark for this Penn State team is the defensive line, and this is about as difficult of a challenge as it gets, going up against a physical, run-happy team to start. Tackling early in the season has long been a problem for Penn State. It could be even worse this year with the new NCAA rules cutting back on hitting and pad time in preseason camp. This also is a noon kickoff -- 11 a.m. local time in Madison -- and we all know how much PSU has struggled waking up for early games.
Penn State's offense should be very good this season under Mike Yurcich. But can we really expect the Lions to be hitting on all cylinders in an opener? Do you have that much faith in Sean Clifford, who has been average at best during his career, right off the bat in this new system?
I don't. Again, maybe if this game were a few weeks into the season, it'd be different.
This Wisconsin team has questions itself, even at the running back spot, where the leading returning rusher, Jalen Berger, had a total of 301 yards last season. Still, Graham Mertz is a very promising sophomore quarterback, and with the game being played in a packed Camp Randall Stadium, well, that's just too much for me to assume Penn State can overcome.
Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Penn State 26
VS. BALL STATE (Sept. 11)
We all know that Ball State was good last season, going 7-1 and winning a MAC title. The Cardinals have a bunch of starters back, and 16 players who could have ended their careers decided to stick around one more year for a chance to what they're calling "run it back."
Whatever. I don't think this one is close. Because especially if PSU loses at Wisconsin, the Lions are going to want to come out and throttle Ball State the next week.
Prediction: Penn State 40, Ball State 20
VS. AUBURN (Sept. 18)
What are we to make of Auburn? We know the Tigers will have a lot of talented players. Their recent recruiting classes ranked 19th in 2021, 7th in 2020, 11th in 2019 and 12th in 2018.
OK, but Auburn went just 6-5 last year (6-4 in SEC), and coach Gus Malzahn was fired after eight years. The Tigers pretty much underachieved annually under Malzahn, always fielding tons of talent but not getting the most out of that talent on the field.
Auburn has been a mess this offseason under new coach Bryan Harsin. First, Harsin showed zero leadership when he refused to answer questions about his own vaccination status, and now he has contracted COVID himself and is isolating away from the team. Defensive coordinator Derek Mason also tested positive but has recovered.
Look, no matter where you stand personally on the vaccines is your right. But coaches in charge of young people's lives and football programs worth hundreds of millions of dollars need to step up and make sure everyone -- including themselves -- is doing everything they can to avoid COVID. That means encouraging everyone to get vaccinated -- which James Franklin has done -- yet Harsin apparently decided was not a priority for him.
This is a bad start for Harsin when it comes to leadership at his new football program. You have to wonder how much of a credibility hit he's already taken with the program and school. Whether that will impact the football team on the field this season remains to be seen, but at the very least, Harsin has put even more pressure on himself right off the bat.
The Tigers open at home against Akron and Alabama State before coming to Penn State for a whiteout game. Auburn will be feeling good about itself after two wins to start the season, but the whiteout atmosphere and PSU getting things clicking on offense will rule the day (errr ...night).
Prediction: Penn State 35, Auburn 23
VS. VILLANOVA (Sept. 25)
Look for a game effort from the FCS opponent in the first half, then for Penn State to roll.
Prediction: Penn State 42, Villanova 16
VS. INDIANA (Oct. 2)
Penn State beat Indiana last year. That's right, I'll say it, even if the scoreboard and history books don't. Michael Penix Jr. did not score on the 2-point conversion in OT because the ball hit out of bounds first and should not have counted as a conversion. I have seen many replays and still shots that lead me to this belief, and you're going to have a hard time convincing me otherwise.
Regardless, Indiana did prevail, 36-35. Much to the dismay of me, the entire Penn State program and many other people.
There are other reasons PSU lost, from Clifford's poor play early to the unforgivable mistake by Franklin and the coaching staff in making 1 billion percent sure that Devyn Ford not go into the end zone late when the Hoosiers were letting him score.
Fast forward a year, and I believe this is the game Penn State has circled on the schedule. Sure, there are other big games, starting right off the bat in week one at Wisconsin. But when we roll around to week five, you can count on the Nittany Lions to be fully locked in and ready to leave nothing to chance -- or the officials -- this time around.
I can see a pretty comfortable win, actually.
Prediction: Penn State 37, Indiana 23
AT IOWA (Oct. 9)
Another massive game for Penn State. And I'm predicting another loss, leaving the Lions at 4-2 at the midway point of the season.
By this point, you'd think Yurcich's offensive system will be producing for the Lions, and that Clifford will be putting up good numbers, Let's just say that had better be the case with Clifford, because if not, then all of those predictions can be thrown out the window. (More on that in the coming days.)
Clifford was benched for the start of the Iowa game last year at Beaver Stadium, and while Will Levis was OK (13-of-16 for 106 yards), the offense didn't have much punch. Iowa built a 24-7 lead by halftime, then Clifford was reinserted at QB.
Kinnick Stadium is always a tough place to win, especially at night, which is likely when this game will be played. However, PSU has won the last three meetings at Iowa, so history says the Lions have learned how to play there.
I expect this to be an outstanding game that goes down to the wire. Kirk Ferentz's team will make things tough on Penn State's offense, and the Hawkeyes will slip away with a victory.
Prediction: Iowa 30, Penn State 27
VS. ILLINOIS (Oct. 23)
I'm not going to go into great detail with these games the rest of the way, because honestly, a whole slew of things could happen between now and late October that could make predictions rather useless. Namely the play and health of Clifford, which I'll keep coming back to over and over again.
If we can assume Clifford is playing well, Penn State crushes the Illini. If he's just sort of ho-hum, well, then PSU still probably crushes the Illini.
Prediction: Penn State 48, Illinois 23
AT OHIO STATE (Oct. 30)
Here we go. The biggest game of the season. The biggest game of every season for Penn State. At this stage, I've got the Lions at 5-2, while No. 4 Ohio State should be undefeated. The Buckeyes do have a game at Indiana the week before, and that could be very interesting since the Hoosiers will be jacked up for that one. Penn State, meanwhile, has Illinois at home the week before, so the Lions have a little bit of an advantage from a scheduling standpoint going into this showdown.
Will it be a showdown? Will Clifford and Yurcich be in command of an offense that gives Penn State any kind of shot of going into Columbus with a chance to win?
I do believe so. Remember, the Lions were competitive in Columbus two years ago, with Will Levis playing well in a 28-17 loss. And for whatever reason, Penn State always matches up well against Ohio State and gives the Buckeyes a good battle, even if the Lions have lost eight of the past nine meetings.
Make it nine out of 10, but in a decent game. And I'm looking forward to seeing if C.J. Stroud can carry on the outstanding tradition of Ohio State quarterbacks as he takes over for Justin Fields.
Prediction: Ohio State 37, Penn State 23
AT MARYLAND (Nov. 6)
I still can't believe the Terps crushed Penn State last year, 35-19, while flat out embarrassing the Lions' defense.
I really like Terps QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who can continue to make a name for himself and get out of older brother Tua's shadow with a big year.
Penn State is 40-3-1 all-time against Maryland, which again, makes what happened last year stunning.
The Lions get their revenge this year.
Prediction: Penn State 44, Maryland 27
VS. MICHIGAN (Nov. 13)
Jim Harbaugh is the most overrated coach in this country, in any sport. His Michigan teams have underachieved when they were supposed to be really good. This year, the Wolverines are expected to be average, starting outside the top 25.
Somehow, Penn State won at Michigan last year, 27-17, after to end its awful 0-5 start. This should be fun game at Beaver Stadium -- it always is when Michigan shows up -- and I see the Lions winning.
Prediction: Penn State 33, Michigan 24
VS. RUTGERS (Nov. 20)
Greg Schiano will continue to make Rutgers competitive. Penn State won out there last year, 23-7. The Lions are 29-2 all-time against the Scarlet Knights.
Make it 30-2.
Prediction: Penn State 36, Rutgers 17
AT MICHIGAN STATE (Nov. 27)
Land Grant Trophy time!
This is a tricky game. I am picking Penn State to win. But Sparty always makes things tough on the Lions, and I could see this one slipping away on some crazy play or situation (but please not another long lightning delay).
Again, there's no way to know what the Penn State team will look like at this stage, or any other team, for that matter. We're going to be dealing with COVID and injuries and Clifford's development, and on and on. But based on where we sit now, and what we think could happen all season, I'll give Penn State the win here to finish off a 9-3 regular season.
Prediction: Penn State 35, Michigan State 27
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
10 MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS
We're starting this countdown of the 10 most important players on the team this year, so here we go with No. 10: Center Mike Miranda.
He's a fifth-year senior who will be counted on as the leader of the offensive line, which has some question marks and will need to come together quickly with a tough schedule right out of the chute.
Miranda is not the best or most promising offensive lineman. Ends Rasheed Walker and Caedan Wallace both have big-time NFL potential. Walker probably will be a first-round NFL draft pick next year.
But Miranda is the veteran, the guy on the line everyone will turn to as the center to keep things going smoothly. He was second-team all-Big Ten last year as a left guard and could be in line for bigger conference and national honors if he has a stellar season.
Miranda has shown great versatility in his career, playing right guard, then left guard and now moving to center. His play will be vital to the line, both in run blocking and pass blocking, and his leadership will be paramount.
WISNIEWSKI RETIRES
Former Penn State offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski has enjoyed a strong NFL career, playing for 10 years and winning two Super Bowls. Wisniewski announced today that he's hanging it up and retiring. Check out his announcement below:
I have an announcement to make : pic.twitter.com/0ZHD3Kvp9b
— Stefen Wisniewski (@stefenwiz61) August 26, 2021
BACKUP QB "SETTLED"
James Franklin said after practice Wednesday that the coaching staff has decided on the backup quarterback, but he wouldn't announce who it is because they hadn't told the player yet.
It's obviously going to be Ta'Quan Roberson, the backup last year, rather than true freshman Christian Veilleux. Roberson has a lot of tools and has been around a while, but he's only played a handful of snaps and thrown one pass in college.
"It's settled," Franklin said of the decision on the backup.
Asked if he could tell the media, Franklin said, "Not at this point. I haven't talked to the guys yet. It wouldn't be fair to tell you guys (in the media) before they know. But it's pretty settled. Even if you ask the guys, they know. It's pretty obvious with all the data and how we've been practicing."
ON GUARD
Franklin said the starting left guard spot is still up for grabs.
"There's probably a group of four to five guys that we're rotating in right now to try to figure that out," Franklin said. "There's been flashes of certain guys, but that has not been resolved yet."
