One night after being one-hit by the Cardinals, the Pirates could muster just two Colin Moran ground ball singles for their only offense Wednesday night, losing again to the Cardinals, 4-0.
It was the 28th time this season the Pirates were held to one or zero runs, tied with the Rangers for the most such games in baseball.
That’s just one of the many categories the Pirates are on pace to finish at, or near, the bottom of this year. Let’s rattle off a few more:
• 29th in team OPS (.668)
• 30th in runs scored (406)
• 30th in home runs (88)
• 29th in average exit velocity (86.5 mph)
• 30th in batting average with runner in scoring position (.210)
But that’s just for one year, and all of those points have been addressed throughout this season. Let’s take it a step further. This offense is, for the second year in a row, flirting with some of the worst records in franchise history.
It is, statistically speaking, a historically bad offense. That’s what this is, an examination of some of the franchise -- and league -- records the Pirates are in danger of setting this year.
We’ll start with a couple of individual performances:
LOWEST INDIVIDUAL OPS AMONG PIRATES HITTERS, MODERN ERA
Tommy Thevenow, 1931: .513 OPS over 441 PAs
Kevin Newman, 2021: .534 OPS over 396 PAs
George Gibson, 1911: .541 OPS over 348 PAS
I used only hitters who qualified for the batting title that particular year. Given that Hoy Park has gotten the majority of the starts at shortstop of late, it is possible that Newman does not reach the 502 PAs necessary to qualify for a batting title. Then again, he already has more trips to the plate than Gibson did, and Thevenow’s total isn’t too far off.
If you would prefer to use the modern 3.1 PAs per team game played to determine who is last in OPS among Pirates hitters, it was Jose Lind in 1992 (.544 OPS over 507 PAs).
WORST WEIGHTED PERFORMANCE BY RIGHT FIELDER*, MODERN ERA
Gregory Polanco, 2021: 73 OPS+ (entering Wednesday)
Roberto Clemente, 1957: 73 OPS+
Owen Wilson, 1908: 74 OPS+
My minimums set for this category were A. 325 plate appearances and B. At least 75% of their appearances had to have been in right field. They’re two arbitrary numbers, but it filters out players who were filling in out of position and those who didn’t get a ton of playing time. 325 PAs is at the bare minimum a good platoon total.
Polanco has shown occasional stretches where it appears he has put something together, but they often don’t last very long. The end result is a year that is technically a step forward from last year, but still five or six back from where he was before he injured himself sliding into second base in 2018.
After an 0-for-3 performance Wednesday, Polanco is now slashing .199/.279/.353 on the year.
He and Newman are the two most maligned hitters in the Pirates’ lineup, but as a group, they haven’t done much better. Let's move on to some team stats.
MOST STRIKEOUTS/HIGHEST STRIKEOUT RATE, MODERN ERA
2020: 24.4% strikeout rate
2012: 22.5% strikeout rate
2021: 22.1% strikeout rate
Yes, strikeouts have skyrocketed in recent years league-wide, and the Pirates are the sixth-hardest team to fan. But these last two years are still a significant spike up, even more so than we’ve seen from the league the last couple years. They struck out 19.5% of the time in 2019, and less than 20% of the time from 2017-2019. It comes out to about one extra punch out a game than just two seasons ago.
That 2012 team struck out a franchise-worst 1,354 times. Right now, they are on pace for 1,319, but with Adam Frazier now a Padre and Newman potentially getting less playing time, that could tick up.
LOWEST TEAM BATTING AVERAGES, MODERN ERA
2020: .220 BA
1952: .231 BA
1914: .233 BA
2021: .233 BA
This may be cheating, but it’s tempting to omit the 2020 season because of its drastically shortened season. It’s hard seeing the Pirates dropping another 13 points off their average this late in the season (unless this Cardinals series goes on for 20 games), so that seems safe. If you want to go by a true full season, though, then they could drop two more points and surpass a 1952 offense that went 42-112.
That one’s a traditional stat. Now back to a weighted analytic:
THE LAST FOUR TEAMS WHO FINISHED WITH BACK-TO-BACK YEARS WITH AN OPS+ OF 80 OR BELOW
1967-68 Mets: OPS+ of 77, 79
1963-64 Colt .45s: OPS+ of 73, 74
1959-61 Phillies: OPS+ of 79, 80, 79
1952-55 Pirates: OPS+ of 73, 77, 78, 79
I should preface this by saying that going into Wednesday’s game, the Pirates’ team OPS+ was 81, but a two-single performance puts them right on the cusp of dropping that last point. The Rangers are also in the same spot, entering Wednesday with an 81 OPS+ as well after recording a mark of 76 last year.
But there is a real possibility that the Pirates produce at least 20% less offense than the average team for the second year in a row, something that has not been done since Lyndon Johnson was in office. Even then, it was done by a couple of expansion teams still looking to find their footing. The Pirates had a team OPS+ of 73 in 2020.
Ok, one more. It’s as simple a way as possible of assessing an offense:
FEWEST RUNS PER GAME IN FRANCHISE HISTORY, LIVE BALL ERA
1952: 3.32 R/G
1920: 3.42 R/G
1963: 3.5 R/G
1985: 3.53 R/G
1946: 3.56 R/G
2021: 3.56 R/G
At the moment, the Pirates are averaging 0.0002 more runs a game than they did in 1946, so this is a virtual tie for the fifth-worst offense for getting people to cross the plate. It’s the lowest since Jim Leyland took over as manager back in 1986.
And if you read the article up to this point, that shouldn’t be too surprising.
MORE FROM THE GAME
• Adam Wainwright made quick work of the Pirates, facing just one over the minimum on an 88-pitch complete game, otherwise known as a "Maddux." He struck out seven.
"He was in complete control the whole game," Derek Shelton said.
• Wil Crowe was able to match him pitch-for-pitch through the first three innings, but was touched up for a run before exiting in the fifth with the bases loaded. Nick Mears was able to get out of the jam to close Crowe's ledger. He allowed four hits, three walks and struck out four over 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball.
"It looked like he kind of ran out of gas in the fifth," Shelton said. "He executed early on and then in the fifth, he started to drift in the middle of the plate."
Cody Ponce allowed three runs in the sixth, two coming when Paul DeJong pounced on a hanging 0-2 curveball for a two-out, two-run double, followed by a Wainwright RBI knock.
Wainwright had as many hits as the Pirates Wednesday and more total bases, singling in the sixth and hitting a book rule double in the fifth.
• Hey, Anthony Alford made a bona fide web gem at least:
All out Alford. pic.twitter.com/7tO7rkpdW1
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) August 12, 2021
"It's a really good feeling," Alford said. "Anytime I can save a run or whatever it is, I definitely take pride in it. It takes some of the stress off of our pitchers."
"Probably one of the better plays I’ve seen in my career, especially with me on the mound," Crowe said. "I actually just came out of the locker room, gave him another tap and told him, ‘Thanks. That was awesome.’ He said, ‘Anything for [my] boys.’ "
• A cap tip to Stathead and Baseball Reference for those historical figures.
In other news, it was Wednesday, so here is the injury update.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Scoreboard
• Standings
• Statistics
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Hoy Park, SS
2. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
3. Bryan Reynolds, CF
4. Colin Moran, 1B
5. Rodolfo Castro, 2B
6. Gregory Polanco, RF
7. Anthony Alford, LF
8. Michael Pérez, C
9. Wil Crowe, RHP
And for Mike Shildt's Cardinals:
1. Dylan Carlson, RF
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
3. Nolan Arenado, 3B
4. Tyler O'Neill, LF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Harrison Bader, CF
7. Paul DeJong, SS
8. Tommy Edman, 2B
9. Adam Wainwright, RHP
THE SCHEDULE
The Pirates will try to salvage the finale Thursday afternoon. JT Brubaker (4-11, 4.95) will take on former Pirate Wade LeBlanc (0-2, 4.02), with the first pitch coming at 12:35 p.m. I've got you covered from the ballpark.
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