The Penguins on Wednesday announced the signing of Teddy Blueger to a two-year contract that carries a $2.2 million cap hit.
The signing is an indication that the Penguins will likely protect Blueger in next week's expansion draft. If they let Blueger go into the expansion draft exposed, his new reasonable contract would just make him that much more appealing to Seattle.
The Penguins will have seven forwards on their protected list when lists are submitted by Saturday at 5 p.m.
On that list, I would include Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Kasperi Kapanen, and now Blueger as my first six forwards
For the seventh forward, there are some interesting debates to be had.
Last month I wrote this piece looking at the idea of protecting Jeff Carter, and the several reasons why he might still be appealing to the Kraken despite being 36. At his age, he's still a valuable asset. Even if Seattle doesn't end up being a contender, the Kraken could potentially move Carter at next season's deadline for draft picks. Carter's experience and veteran presence could also be of value to the Kraken in the early days of the franchise as the team looks to establish a culture. Still, I'd take the gamble and leave Carter exposed.
I'd leave Jason Zucker exposed, but it's not a given that the Kraken would overlook him. His $5.5 million cap hit is high, but he only has two years left. A cap hit that high isn't as much of a deterrent to an expansion team starting fresh like Seattle is, they could easily afford him. We saw Vegas select some higher-salary contracts in 2017, as long as those contracts didn't have too much term left. Zucker would be a low-risk pick with only two years remaining. He hasn't quite fit in as expected in Pittsburgh, but he had much more offensive success, including a 33-goal season, in Minnesota. Seattle could take the gamble that Zucker would be a better fit with the Kraken. And if he is selected, the Penguins might be better off with his $5.5 million cap hit cleared.
I think for the seventh forward spot, it comes down to Brandon Tanev and Jared McCann.
Let's take a look at the case for either:
BRANDON TANEV
Age: 29
Cap hit: $3.5 million
Years remaining on contract: 4 (UFA in 2025)
The Penguins' fourth line of Tanev, Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese has been the line combination that has remained the most consistent over the last two seasons, and it's because they've been so effective as a unit.
Tanev, though, is often the first forward bumped up to the top six mid-game when Mike Sullivan is looking to add a spark.
"He's called 'Turbo' for a reason," Aston-Reese said of Tanev during the season. "He's a spark plug. It's hard to contain his speed, when he's going."
There are going to be a lot of bottom-six forwards left available for Seattle next week, but not many could provide the energy and spark Tanev could.
Tanev brings a needed physical element when he's in the lineup. He led the Penguins in hits in the playoffs with 39 in six games, nine more hits than the next player and 17 more than the next forward. During the regular season, Tanev also had the highest rate of hits at five-on-five among any regular skater (20-plus games), averaging 18.8 for every 60 minutes.
Tanev led the Penguins' forwards in blocked shots in the regular season (33), with a rate of 4.29 for every 60 minutes of ice time.
We can use the isolated impact tool, which accounts for discrepancies in quality of teammates/opponents and deployment usage among skaters, and see what kind of impact Tanev's presence had on both sides of the puck at five-on-five in the regular season.
Offensively, the Penguins' expected goals for dropped by 2.7 percent when Tanev was on the ice. The red areas show where the Tanev's impact causes shots to be taken at a larger rate than league average, blue areas show where the impact causes a lower rate:
Tanev's presence was associated with the Penguins' expected goals against decreasing by 3.5 percent, meaning he made them stronger defensively. With the defensive charts, you want to see more blue (for fewer shots) than red:
JARED MCCANN
Age: 25
Cap hit: $2.94 million
Years remaining on contract: 1 (RFA in 2022)
I asked McCann on cleanout day if the expansion draft was weighing on the minds of players yet.
"We had a very great team this year, we really did," he said. "It's going to suck to see somebody go. We have a lot of talent on this team, and I think a lot of guys are going to get a look."
Could he be one of those players Seattle takes a look at?
McCann is still young, has experience at both center and wing, and has a very attractive contract from a team's perspective. He'd definitely be intriguing option for the Kraken if left exposed.
When the top power play had an opening due to another forward's injury, McCann was the first man up, and he was extremely effective in that role. He led the Penguins in power play goals in the regular season with seven, despite playing roughly half the power play time as the next two leaders, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, who each had six power play goals.
Looking at McCann's isolated impact on the offense in the regular season, his presence was associated with a 2.5 percent increase in the Penguins' expected goals for.
McCann had the highest Corsi For percentage at five-on-five in the short postseason run. When McCann was on the ice, the Penguins controlled 64.89 percent of all shot attempts. Looking at actual shots on goal, McCann had the highest on-ice percentage as well, with the Penguins controlling 63.95 of all shots when McCann was on the ice.
McCann's isolated impact on the Penguins' defense was strong. When McCann was on the ice, it led to the Penguins' expected goals against decreasing by 7.8 percent, with the net-front area seeing the biggest dip in shots:
THE VERDICT
I'd have to protect McCann out of these two.
He led the team in power play goals last season. He can play on the top power play unit and in the top six if needed. He's four years younger and $560,000 cheaper than Tanev. He's just the better asset, and has more potential to grow into a bigger role.
Tanev would be a loss to the bottom six and the penalty kill if he's left unprotected and chosen. When healthy, he was the Penguins' most regular penalty-killer. But Blueger, Aston-Reese, and then later Carter and Freddy Gaudreau saw significant shorthanded time too throughout the season, so if Aston-Reese and Gaudreau can be re-signed the Penguins would still have at least four solid options for forwards on the penalty kill.
Contracts also matter here. As mentioned earlier, we saw that Vegas was willing to take on players who were perhaps a little overpaid, as long as the term remaining on the contract was short. If the Penguins protect McCann and expose Tanev, the four years remaining on Tanev's contract with the $3.5 million cap hit could end up being a deterrent for Seattle.
