In the various expansion draft protection list stories published on our site by Dave Molinari, Dejan Kovacevic, and myself, we've often touched on the case either for or against protecting Cody Ceci in the expansion draft.
That usually leads to some confusion in the comment section, since Ceci is set to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.
It felt like a good time to clear up some of the rules and go over the precedent surrounding UFAs in the expansion draft.
Yes, pending unrestricted free agents can -- and likely will -- be selected by Seattle in the expansion draft.
Of the players Seattle selects, at least 20 of the 30 players must be under contract for the 2021-22 regular season. The other players they select are allowed to be pending free agents, but they can not select any more than 10 pending free agents.
Protected lists are due July 17th, and the expansion draft is on July 21. Free agency doesn't open until a week later on July 28. Until free agency opens, teams still hold the signing rights to their pending unrestricted free agents. That is, unless Seattle takes them.
Why would Seattle take a gamble at taking a UFA, though?
The day after protected lists are submitted, a negotiating window opens up for Seattle in which the team is permitted to speak with unprotected pending free agents. Seattle would be able to gauge a player's interest and discuss terms of a deal. If discussions go favorably, one of those pending UFAs could be who Seattle selects from a team.
So if the Penguins go into the expansion draft with someone like Ceci unsigned and unprotected, they do risk Seattle offering an enticing contract that the Penguins might not be able to afford to match, and then losing Ceci to the Kraken.
Obviously, though, a pending UFA doesn't have to sign with Seattle. So in the case of the Capitals and Alex Ovechkin, it would benefit the Capitals to hold off on signing Ovechkin until after the expansion draft, because then they don't have to use a protection slot on him. There's no real risk of Ovechkin signing with Seattle, so it wouldn't be a gamble on Washington's part.
But for pending UFAs who would be more inclined to move to a new team, there's the risk of Seattle luring them in. A player could still test free agency, but by the time free agency opens, a deal offered by Seattle might no longer be on the table. So it could be in a player's best interest to sign with Seattle if chosen.
It's more likely than you think that an expansion team would pick a pending UFA in the draft.
Looking back at the Golden Knights' draft in 2017, nine of Vegas' selections -- just under a third of their picks -- were pending UFAs.
Deryk Engelland was one of those selections, and he pre-negotiated a contract with the Golden Knights before he was picked.
In the period between the expansion draft and the start of free agency, Vegas immediately traded the signing rights to four of those pending UFAs to other teams in return for other assets, allowing those acquiring teams to exclusively negotiate with the player before free agency opens.
The Golden Knights picked pending UFA Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Blackhawks, then traded his rights and a seventh-round pick to the Hurricanes in exchange for a second round pick. They picked David Schlemko from the Sharks, then traded his rights to the Canadiens for a fifth-round pick. They picked Marc Methot from the Senators, then traded his rights to the Stars for a second-round pick and a prospect. Finally, they took Alexei Emelin from the Canadiens, then traded his rights to the Predators for a third-round pick.
Seattle could potentially select pending UFAs in the expansion draft with no intention of actually having that player ever play for the Kraken. Flipping those signing rights to other teams is an easy way to load up on draft picks, valuable currency for an expansion team building its prospect system from scratch.
So, yes, some pending unrestricted free agents will most likely be taken by Seattle in the expansion draft. And if a team wants to ensure that Seattle doesn't select one of their pending UFAs, either to sign themselves or flip for assets, they have to be on the protected list.
