CINCINNATI -- Looking at the 2021 Pirates objectively, this is the type of team that needed to take a chance on Rule 5 pitchers. They aren’t going to be competitive this season. They are planning to carry 14 pitchers. Of those pitchers, they’re going to need a couple guys who can go multiple innings.

It’s why the Pirates double-dipped in the draft last December. The first pick was Jose Soriano, a 22-year-old fireballer coming off Tommy John surgery. Expect to see him later this season. The other was Luis Oviedo, who was actually selected by the Mets before being sold to the Pirates.

Going into the 2019 season, there was buzz that Oviedo was going to be the next breakout Indians pitching prospect. Back injuries killed that buzz, and the Indians didn’t even bother to put him on their roster. Not that it mattered – everyone passed on him in the Rule 5 draft.

After not being invited to the Indians’ satellite camp or instructional ball, they once again passed on putting him on the roster. Oviedo went to play winter ball, where he quickly showed his stuff had returned. Those couple outings were enough for the Pirates to roll the dice on him.

Oviedo made his debut Saturday, pitching the eighth inning in a game that was basically decided. It was about as low a pressure a situation as he could debut in. A way to dip the toe in the water.

And then he got his first career strikeout like this:

Safe to say Ian Happ was fooled by that curveball, and it’s hard to blame him. That thing had some serious break to it. Look at where it was at when Happ starts his swing…

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Compared to where it landed:

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That pitch had 62 inches of vertical break on it, the 10th most out of any pitch thrown in Saturday’s game. It’s worth noting that of the nine pitches which got more break, Oviedo threw two of them, getting 64 inches of break twice. He also had the three hardest-thrown pitches of the game, topping out at 97.7 mph. Not a bad combo.

Oviedo clearly has stuff, but I want to dive a little deeper on the curveball, because it doesn’t get a ton of spin. It averaged about 2,300 RPM Saturday, which was remarkably similar to what his four-seamer got. It’s efficient spin though, creating drop. The sacrifice for less spin is the horizontal movement, which is more of a luxury with that sort of drop.

After all, a strike zone is taller than it is wide. That strikeout to Happ would have been a strike even if the bat was on his shoulder rather than in the dugout.

Of the five curveballs Oviedo threw Saturday, they averaged 57.8 inches of vertical break and 7.2 inches of horizontal run. The break is what really matters for Oviedo, and of the 289 pitchers who qualified for Baseball Savant’s movement leaderboards (at least three pitches thrown for each team game played), he ranked in the top 30% in terms of break. There's no guarantee he'll get that much break over the course of the entire season, but for a 21-year-old making his debut being compared to major leaguers, that’s pretty good.

Here is how much run and break those 289 curveballs had:

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Baseball Savant.

There are two good comps in terms of movement for Oviedo’s curve. The first is Jake Odorizzi, who has had a fine career as a middle of the rotation starter. His curve gets 57.8 inches of drop and 7.5 inches of run. It’s a very similar shape.

The other is… a far funnier comparison.

Tyler Glasnow got 58.5 inches of break and 6.5 inches of run on his curve, so it’s a little tighter of a 12-to-6 curveball than Oviedo. But considering Glasnow averages about 3,000 RPM on his curve and they get similar movement, that’s a good comp.

Part of the reason why Glasnow’s curve is so effective is not just its movement, but that it tunnels off high fastballs. The Pirates made him work his fastball lower in the zone, which is why neither pitch really played early in his career.

Looking at Oviedo’s pitch location, you can tell he was trying to get the four-seamer up, but it hung over the heart of the plate more. He got away with those pitches, so no harm, no foul. If he can throw it high consistently, there does seem to be some potential for Oviedo to tunnel his pitches.

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Red fastball, blue curveball, yellow slider

The flight path of his curve and fastball are pretty similar up to the point where batters need to decide to swing or not. The outlier, top flight path is the Happ strikeout pitch, so ideally, the release point would be a little tighter with his other pitches. But there’s potential for him to become an effective tunneler.

That’s probably the most important takeaway from Oviedo’s first outing. He’s only 21. There’s still room for growth. It’s why the Pirates haven’t closed the door on him possibly starting in the future, though he is going to stick in the bullpen this year.

He showed that he has a potentially-plus breaking ball and good velocity in his first outing. Those tools could play in the majors right now, even though he never pitched above the lower-levels of the minors before now.

For now, Oviedo will get his chance in the majors, and there should be a few more of these back-breaking curves on the horizon.

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