We're less than a year away from the Seattle Kraken's expansion draft.
Seattle will fill its roster by selecting one player from each NHL team, except for the Golden Knights, who are exempt. Seattle must select 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders.
The format and rules for the expansion draft will be the same as the expansion draft of the Golden Knights in 2017. Teams must protect only one goaltender, and can choose one of two options for protecting skaters. Teams can protect seven forwards and three defensemen for a total of 10 skaters, or teams can protect any combination of eight skaters.
Teams must protect players with no-movement clauses in their contracts, unless the player elects to waive the clause. They do not have to protect players with only no-trade clauses. All first- and second-year pros, and all unsigned draft choices are exempt from the draft. They do not count toward a team's protected list.
Assuming the Penguins choose to protect seven forwards and three defensemen for the maximum 10 skaters, who might they protect, and who is in danger of becoming a Kraken? Let's take a look.
GOALTENDER
After the Matt Murray trade, this is pretty straightforward. Tristan Jarry will be protected, Casey DeSmith will be exposed. Expansion draft rules require that at least one of the goaltenders exposed at must be under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the end of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If a goaltender is exposed who is a restricted free agent, he must have already received his qualifying offer. Since DeSmith is under contract through 2022, he fulfills this requirement.
The two goaltenders selected in this offseason's NHL draft -- Joel Blomqvist and Calle Clang -- are exempt from the expansion draft. They aren't in any danger of being selected.
While DeSmith will be exposed, I don't think he'll be the player selected from the Penguins. Other teams around the league have true tandems in net, which will lead to much better goaltenders than DeSmith needing to be exposed.
DEFENSEMEN
This is pretty simple, too. Assuming the Penguins follow this format, they can choose three defensemen to protect. The rules keep some of their young defensemen safe and exempt from the draft.
John Marino, because next season will be his second NHL season, is exempt from the draft. He can't be selected, and he doesn't count toward the three that need to be protected. Young prospects like Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Cam Lee, Josh Maniscalco, who turned pro last season or who have yet to turn pro are also exempt.
Kris Letang has a no-movement clause and will be protected. Of the remaining eligible defensemen, it would make sense to protect Brian Dumoulin and Marcus Pettersson.
That would leave exposed Mike Matheson and Cody Ceci (the latter being an unrestricted free agent next summer anyway) and Chad Ruhwedel and Juuso Riikola, both signed through the 2021-22 season.
Again, I don't think this is where the Penguins will lose a player. Matheson is the best player available here, but his $4.875 million cap hit through 2025-26 doesn't make him the most appealing option.
FORWARDS
I think that with this current roster, the Penguins will most likely lose a forward in the expansion draft.
Prospects like Samuel Poulin and Nathan Legare who haven't turned pro yet are exempt from the draft and will not need to be protected.
Of the remaining forwards, they can protect seven under this approach.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin both have no-movement clauses and will be protected. Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust are sure locks to be protected, Jason Zucker and Kasperi Kapanen will likely be protected as well.
That leaves one more spot for a forward to be protected out of Teddy Blueger (RFA next summer), Jared McCann ($2.94 million cap hit), Sam Lafferty ($750,000 cap hit), Brandon Tanev ($3.5 million cap hit), Anthony Angello ($725,000 cap hit), Zach Aston-Reese (RFA next summer), Mark Jankowski (RFA next summer), Evan Rodrigues (UFA next summer), and Colton Sceviour (UFA next summer).
Out of that group, I'd protect either Blueger or Tanev. The Penguins haven't had the easiest time finding true bottom-six centers, and with the strides Blueger has made since stepping into the league, he could become the third-line center the Penguins have been searching for. Tanev has been the perfect fourth-line energy-type player since he was signed, and he would be a loss. Both Blueger and Tanev were the Penguins top two most regular penalty-killers in terms of ice time, so if either is claimed it would be a huge hit to that unit. They should protect at least one of them with that remaining spot, perhaps deferring to Blueger because of his age. Blueger turned 26 over the summer, and Tanev turns 29 later this month.
I think McCann in this group would be one of the more expendable players. With the current roster, he's likely penciled in for the third line again. He's better suited for wing than he is for center, and that third-line left wing spot has Poulin's name on it if McCann is gone in 2021-22. At 24 years old, and with his potential for offense (14 goals and 21 assists in 66 games last season), he's also someone who could be appealing for the Kraken, perhaps in a top-six role.
If the Penguins do protect Blueger and leave Tanev and McCann exposed, their cap hits could be a factor here too. Tanev makes $3.5 million through 2025, McCann makes a more reasonable $2.94 million through 2022, making McCann the more appealing of the two options cap-wise. Or if Seattle allocates its spending to where a cap hit in this range is too steep for one of these players, a cheaper option like Aston-Reese might be the player selected from the Penguins.
This topic will surely be revisited again and again for the next several months until Seattle makes its selections, and some of the predictions above could end up being irrelevant by the time the expansion draft rolls around based on any roster moves the Penguins make during the season.
At the very least, it's safe to say that this time around the Penguins won't pay the NHL's newest team a second-round pick to ensure that it takes a franchise goaltender off of their hands.
