COLUMBUS, Ohio — If you listed the top threats to the Steelers’ chances of reaching the Super Bowl, it most likely would include the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills. But the biggest news from the South Side this week was an unnerving reminder of another opponent — one potent enough to wreck the franchise’s hopes for a seventh title.
It’s the coronavirus, which is raging across the nation again just as NFL postseason races start to take shape.
The Steelers announced that Vance McDonald had tested positive for the virus, and that four other players, including Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Williams, had been added to the reserve/COVID list because of close contact with McDonald. The tight end won’t play Sunday against the Bengals. While the other four players will be eligible for the game, provided they continue to pass daily tests, they’ve had to isolate for five days away from the UMPC Rooney Sports Complex.
It’s hardly an ideal circumstance, but with the Steelers owning an 8-0 record they are well positioned to reach the postseason.
Now, imagine if this week’s scenario had unfolded prior to Pittsburgh’s first playoff game. The most unsettling thought, of course, is it still might. While the Steelers must face teams like the Chiefs and Ravens only once in the tournament, the virus is a foe they would need to conquer each week in the playoffs.
It’s the same for every NFL organization with aspirations of playing in the Super Bowl on Feb. 7.
Although the league has stated its reluctance to adopt a postseason bubble format, three renowned doctors in the field of infectious diseases told DK Pittsburgh Sports the NFL should strongly consider such a contingency plan. It could take the form of hub cities, which were used in the NHL playoffs, or simply sequester teams in hotels in their own towns to minimize the risk of contracting the virus.
“I think they have no choice,” said Dr. Mark Cameron, an associate professor at the Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine. “They have to bubble it up.”
Cameron’s comments came a day after the NFL and NFL Players Association reported a significant spike in its latest COVID-19 testing period (Nov. 1-7). The total number of positive tests (56), which included 15 players and 41 staff members, was more than twice the number of confirmed cases in any other week-long period this season.
At one point last week, about half of the league’s 32 teams had at least one player or coach unavailable due to a positive test or close contact with someone who tested positive, according to The Ringer.
“If the NFL could play in a bubble and restrict player movement and visitors, then I think the NHL and NBA experiences suggest a higher probability of being able to finish out the season in a meaningful way,” said Dr. Michael Chang, an infectious disease specialist at McGovern Medical School at the University of Texas Health in Houston.
When parts of the country went into lockdown in March and other sports leagues were forced to pause their regular seasons, the NFL considered itself fortunate. Football’s decision makers had months before their season kicked off, and the hope was the pandemic would abate. But midway through the 2020 campaign, the third wave has hit just as the nation enters cold and flu season.
On Wednesday, a single-day record of 142,000 new cases were detected, according to data compiled by the New York Times, which included 65,358 patients requiring hospitalization. Regardless of anyone’s stance on the virus, the NFL is abiding by its protocols, which have been amended to add stricter enforcements involving masks and social distancing.
The NFL’s primary goal is the safety of its players. However, there’s enormous pressure in terms of financial incentive and legacy to complete the season. The last thing Roger Goodell wants is star players missing postseason games due to COVID-19 or team outbreaks that necessitate a postponement like the one that sidelined the Titans several weeks ago.
The league witnessed the success of the NBA and NHL playoffs — not a single positive test once inside their respective bubbles — and the success of the baseball postseason with its limited travel.
Asked about the prospects of the NFL implementing some form of playoff bubble, one league assistant coach, speaking on conditions of anonymity, told DK Pittsburgh Sports: “Pretty sure it’s headed down that road.”
“The impact of the bubble is not in its ability to test regularly, it’s the ability to control contact,” said Dr. Iahn Gonsenhauser, who serves as a chief quality and patient safety officer and is an assistant professor at Ohio State’s Wexner Medical Center. “If you can control the herd, you can control the exposure.”
‘DEVIL IN THE DETAILS’
The NFL assistant coach who believes the playoff bubble plan is realistic added an important caveat. It was one mentioned by the infectious diseases doctors, as well.
“The difference between the NFL and the other sports is the amount of people that will need to be in the bubble,” the assistant coach said.
Players. Coaches. Front office personnel. Medical and equipment trainers. Support staff. An NFL traveling party marches into a stadium under one banner like an Olympic team representing a large European nation.
A sampling of NFL organizations, including the Steelers, found teams take anywhere from 120 to 140 people on the road with them. For comparison, the NHL limited its bubble brigade 52 team personnel.
From a logistics standpoint, it would require lots of hotel rooms, restaurants and entertainment options in a confined area if you were to house 14 to 16 teams in two hub sites. Don’t forget, the players’ union would need to agree to terms.
Keeping NBA and NHL players virus-free this summer came with substantial price tags. The basketball playoffs reportedly cost north of $180 million, while the hockey postseason was estimated between $60-$90 million.
The NFL has been mulling a bubble format since March, but as of last month was publicly downplaying the need for one.
“First of all, a bubble is not going to keep out all infections,” said Dr. Allen Sills, the NFL’s chief medical officer, during a conference call. “You still have other individuals that come in and out — workers, security, other personnel. And we’ve known from other experiences that those personnel can be infected. So simply being in a bubble doesn’t keep us safe.”
The comment seems to fly in the face of evidence presented by the NHL’s and NBA’s test results. In fairness, the NFL would have to account for so many more individuals on every team.
“Infection can spread more rapidly inside a bubble if it is introduced,” Sills said.
Some believe a more plausible scenario is “mini bubbles” in the cities where postseason games would be held. Players would be sequestered in team hotels throughout the week leading up to the contest. Chang pointed to the success baseball enjoyed right up to the moment the Dodgers' Justin Turner tested positive in the final game of the World Series only to return to the field to celebrate with teammates.
Gonsenhauser believes such a plan can work for the NFL. That is, of course, provided nobody pulls a Kemah Siverand. He’s the Seattle rookie who tried sneaking a female visitor — she was dressed in Seahawks gear to disguise herself as a player — into the team hotel during training camp.
“Instead of having one big bubble, you make each team a bubble,” Gonsenhauser said. “I think that could work, but it could be difficult to execute because you have a bunch of individual teams that have to police themselves. . . . The devil is in the details. If done properly, those mini bubbles could mitigate risks pretty significantly.”
‘REALLY GRAY AREAS’
Team doctors and medical personnel have been scrutinized since Jim Thorpe twisted his first ankle with the Canton Bulldogs in 1920. The most important ability, as they say in the NFL, is availability. And, it’s the responsibility of medical staff to get players off the trainer’s table and into uniform as quick as possible.
The virus has added another layer of stress and uncertainty.
Over the past two weeks, the Steelers have been placed in the league's intensive protocol due to exposure to Ravens safety Marlon Humphrey and McDonald. Both players tested positive after Steelers’ games, meaning all position meetings have to be done virtually. Team meetings are permissible in person as long as players respect social-distance guidelines.
Humphrey and McDonald missed practices due to illness, but were allowed to play because they passed their COVID-19 tests. The Steelers were criticized in some circles for allowing McDonald to fly with the team and play in Dallas despite missing Friday’s practice.
(Cameron said only players sitting within one row of McDonald in any direction risked exposure on the plane. Coach Mike Tomlin said this week everyone aboard charter flights must wear masks.)
Some believe the club should have erred on the side of caution and left McDonald in Pittsburgh. It’s a valid criticism, especially considering the Centers for Disease Control states that symptoms can appear as early as two days and as late as 14 days after exposure.
The NFL employs the most reliable tests (PCR) every day, according to league spokesman Brian McCarthy, but even those, doctors say, are not foolproof.
So in cases like the ones involving Humphrey and McDonald, team medical personnel must use their best judgement.
“This is one of the really gray areas when it comes to COVID, especially at this time of year,” Gonsenhauser said. “Did the player have a known exposure or a potential exposure? If the answer is ‘yes,’ he should be quarantining, end of story. It doesn’t matter what the test says. But if he hasn’t had any perceived exposure or potential exposure — and this truly is what appears to be a common cold — you have to look at the circumstances.
“Does the player normally get sick at this time of year? Does he have any other associated symptoms? If qualified medical personnel have evaluated him and said, ‘I truly believe there are no symptoms that would be red flags for COVID’ . . . . then it’s reasonable to diagnose him with a common cold and let him participate.”
Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr. was placed in COVID-19 protocol on Oct. 15 and he missed two practices due to illness. After passing PCR tests, the Browns green lighted him play to against the Steelers. Neither Beckham nor anyone else is believed to have become infected.
It illustrates the tough calls teams must make during the pandemic. Among the medical staff’s other responsibilities include tracking all the contact tracing chips worn by players, coach and assorted team personnel when they are in the building or traveling to away games.
“People are still going to get common colds and flu and strep throat that go along with this time of season,” Gonsenhauser said. “We can’t shut everybody down for every potential sneeze or sniffle. It just has to be evaluated professionally, diligently and reliably and we have to move on from there.”
The NFL remains in much better shape than college football, where its players are exposed to dorms, classrooms and fellow students — some of whom might not be adhering to COVID-19 guidelines.
The postponement of Pitt’s game against Georgia Tech on Saturday brought the season total to 57 postponements or cancellations, according to Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger. That sum includes nine games this weekend.
Operating in a safer environment than the amateurs doesn’t guarantee the pro game a smooth ride to Feb. 7. It’s why the league approved a measure this week allowing it to add two playoff teams, one in each conference, if games that impact the postseason race get canceled.
“We always thought the NFL would be walking the tightest of tightropes of all the pro sports,” Cameron said. “It was going to be very tough getting through this without a major disruption to their season and scheduling. You are seeing that. The issues with the NFL keep popping up in waves largely because of the lack of a bubble and the travel and the interactions surrounding the teams in communities in a country that is going through a horrible third wave.”
‘WHEN ARE YOU COMING HOME?’
Nick Foligno is a passionate NFL fan and, if the league ultimately decides to bubble wrap its postseason, the Blue Jackets' captain might be fielding calls from players seeking his counsel.
NHL, NBA, WNBA and MLS players served as athletic guinea pigs this summer when their respective leagues returned to play in controlled environments. Until then, if you wanted to learn about the mental strain associated with group isolation you needed to speak with astronauts, military members, prisoners, survivalists and people who spent time in Biosphere projects.
Sills, the NFL chief medical officer, cited such hardships as another reason why he isn’t keen on confining players to limited spaces for weeks at a time.
“I’m not going to lie and say it wasn’t extremely hard, especially toward the end,” said Foligno, a husband and father of three kids who spent a month in the NHL hub city of Toronto. “It started to wear on you. Your kids are asking, ‘When are you coming home?’ That part really hurt — just seeing them through a (computer) screen and trying to explain to them what you were doing.”
Foligno’s story is not uncommon. Other NHL and NBA players have shared similar experiences from bubble life. The Bruins' Tuukka Rask left Toronto to tend to a “family emergency” and never returned despite his team advancing in the tournament.
The NFL playoff grind lasts four to five weeks for teams lucky enough to reach the Super Bowl. Foligno said he felt most sorry for the Stars, who spent more than two months in isolation only to lose in the Stanley Cup Final to the Lightning.
“You miss seeing your family after a big playoff win,” he said. “Not getting to share in that experience with them and letting them see how ecstatic you are after a big win is a weird feeling.”
Foligno said enduring the separation was worth it, however, because the alternative meant missing out on a playoff run.
“My advice would be expect it to be hard and expect it to be uncomfortable, but remember why you are there,” he said. “And, remind yourself your career is only so long and your family will still be there when it’s over. You have to be selfless in chasing a dream for your team. You also have to remember there are sacrifices being made all over the world that are way bigger than what we are making to play sports.”
That’s decent perspective for Steelers veterans such as Roethlisberger and Cam Heyward should the NFL decide bubbles are the best route to an uninterrupted postseason.
In the meantime, expect the league to grow more vigilant as it updates protocols and cracks down on violators. Last week, the NFL fined Steelers Tomlin $100,000 and the Steelers $250,000 for not wearing masks at times during their win in Baltimore.
Halfway to a perfect regular season, the Steelers don’t need any more close calls or brushes with the virus. The rest of the league no doubt shares the sentiment. The question becomes how far are NFL executives willing to go to ensure that — and at what cost.
“They’ve got to get into a bubble,” Cameron said. “They’ve got to learn from their own mistakes. They’ve got to learn from other leagues during an unprecedented phase of this pandemic.”
