Camp preview: Projecting Pirates' staff

This is part one in a three-part series looking ahead to the Pirates' summer training camp. Players will report on July 1, and camp will start July 3.

Do the Pirates have enough pitching?

It was a valid question this offseason and throughout the COVID-19 shutdown. The team finished with a 5.18 ERA last year, one of the worst in franchise history. They did not sign any pitchers to a Major-League contract this winter, and actually lost a good bullpen arm in Francisco Liriano, not to mention the losses they had mid-season.

But now, with an abbreviated spring training on the docket, expanded rosters being used and no minor-league season to pull players from, that question is taking on a new, more literal, meaning. Experts believe a long lay off is going to lead to an increase in pitcher injuries, and the threat of COVID-19 will be present throughout the season. Even with an abbreviated 60-game season and taxi squads available, pitching is going to be at a premium league-wide.

The Pirates came into this year knowing they would be without Jameson Taillon, who is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, but they were dealt two more blows in June. The first came on June 3 when Chris Archer, the de facto ace of the staff, underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. On June 28, the bullpen became thinner when Edgar Santana was suspended for the season for performance enhancing drugs.

They're down one of their best starters and relievers before the summer camp begins. In a way, they're picking up where they left off in 2019. Last year, the Pirates sent 16 different pitchers to the injured list, the most of any National League team and second only to the Angels, who had 17.

Through 60 games in 2019, the Pirates had used 23 different pitchers, 24 if you count position player J.B. Shuck eating an inning. They also had eight different traditional starters, and Montana DuRapau and Michael Feliz were used as openers, bringing that total to 10. That was more than just about any team.

With a shorter sample size to work with, every injury is going to mean a higher percentage of games missed, and a couple stacked injuries could become a problem quickly.

"You have to make sure you keep guys healthy because a simple oblique, hamstring or quad pull, you could lose guys for (more than) half your season now with a 60-game season," Derek Shelton said during a Zoom call this week.

That's not going to be the only dilemma Shelton will face with his pitching staff.

"The challenge for any manager ... is how aggressive you are with your bullpen and starting pitchers and how long you stay with guys," Shelton said. "That’s going to be the biggest thing. We normally let guys get their feet wet."

Looking ahead to what the Pirates' pitching staff might look like on opening day:



ROTATION

Shelton said he has a “good idea of who at least four” of the members of his rotation will be, though that is dependent on how everyone is physically when they report. The final slot is still a work in progress.

“We could be aggressive with that fifth spot,” Shelton said. “We could be traditional with that fifth spot. We could have an opener. We could do piggyback (starters). I think that’s something we’re still kind of talking through in terms of how we’re going to do it.”

For now, let's assume the Pirates at least start with a five-man rotation.

• SP 1 Joe Musgrove: Musgrove was lined up to be the opening day starter for most of spring training while Archer was hurt. He has shown signs of breaking out in his first two years with the Pirates, but hasn't been able to put it all together. In spring training he talked about pounding the top of the zone more and mixing in more curveballs. He's the Pirates' best returning starter. If he reaches his potential, he could be a No. 1 pitcher in more than name only.

• SP 2 Trevor Williams: Believe it or not, Williams is the Pirates' longest tenured pitcher, having been in the Majors ever since September 2016. Steven Brault started bouncing between the Majors and minors a little before then, but Williams has been a mainstay in the rotation since May 2017. While his results this spring were ugly, he and Shelton were happy with how the ball was coming out of his hand. There's a lot riding on him returning to his 2018 form. That will be a common theme for these player profiles.

• SP 3 Mitch Keller: Keller had a historically bad batting average allowed on balls in play last year, so there is really nowhere for him to go but up. It took awhile for him to get feel for his slider in Bradenton, Fla.. It's an important pitch for him and he won't have as much time to find it in summer camp, though pitching coach Oscar Marin told me the Pirates were throwing all of their pitches during the shutdown and in live batting practices while preparing to return.

• SP 4 Derek Holland: The top three starters are safe bets. As for a the fourth pitcher Shelton alluded to, Holland would seem to be the most likely. He got a long look as a starter in Bradenton and showed a much more refined changeup, which should help him get right-handers out more consistently. He still needs to be added to the 40-man roster, but there should be plenty of spots open between the Santana suspension and the Archer and Kevin Kramer injuries.

• SP 5 Chad Kuhl: Kuhl only faced a handful of live hitters in the first spring training, signaling that the Pirates wanted to limit his innings after he came back from Tommy John surgery. The COVID-19 pandemic took care of that, as each pitcher is looking at about 12 regular season starts now. Kuhl never was told if he would be a starter or reliever in 2020, but it seems to assume the former. If the Pirates go with a five-man rotation, the final spot should be a battle between Kuhl and Brault. Kuhl is coming off a major injury, meaning it could be riskier to stretch him back to being a starter if he starts as a reliever, so he gets the edge in this projection.

BULLPEN

Losing Santana is a blow to the bullpen, but Ben Cherington is still confident in the group.

"I think if we look at the roster in total, the total group of players between Pittsburgh and Altoona, I think we feel in a relative sense that relief pitching bullpen is a relative area of depth and a strength of the team," Cherington said during a Zoom call Sunday. "And we still feel that way.”

Teams will be allowed to open the season with 30 players on the active roster. If 15 are pitchers, that would give the Pirates a 10-man bullpen.

• CL Keone Kela: Shelton did not offer many guarantees for what his roster would look like while in Bradenton, but he did commit to Kela being the closer early on in camp. The Pirates have enjoyed a long stretch of high-level production from their closers, and Kela should keep that going. He was in high spirits throughout camp and wasn't afraid to throw his curveball in hitter's counts. If the Pirates struggle out of the gate, Kela could end up being their best trade chip.

• SU Kyle Crick: 2019 did not go Crick's way, finding out too late that he was tipping his pitches for most of the year and then ending the season on the injured list after a clubhouse altercation. He only made three spring appearances, but he said his surgically repaired right-index finger felt stronger. You don't need me to explain how important Crick is to this bullpen.

• SU Nick Burdi: A healthy Burdi could greatly improve the Pirates' bullpen. After missing almost all of 2018 and 2019 with Tommy John and TOS surgeries, Burdi came to camp healthy and with better mechanics. Few pitchers gain velocity after TOS surgery, but Burdi started hitting triple-digits for the first time in Bradenton this spring. He has not been on the active Major-League roster long enough to shed his Rule 5 status yet, but the Pirates don't need any extra motivation to add him to the team.

• RHP Richard Rodriguez: After being 2018's hidden gem, the home run ball became a serious problem for Rodriguez in 2019, especially early in the year. While he did give up one homer in spring, he looked more like 2018 Rodriguez while in Bradenton, reemphasizing putting his four-seamer up in the zone. He rebounded nicely after a brief trip to triple-A last year, but it doesn't seem like he will have the option to reboot away from the team in 2020.

• RHP Michael Feliz: If you're willing to omit his disastrous outing as an opener last year, Feliz quietly put together a decent 2019, recording a 3.21 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate as a reliever. He's looked much better since ditching his sinker halfway through 2018. He can miss bats and get soft contact, so while he might not be late inning material, he is a good guy to have in the bullpen mix.

• RHP Chris Stratton: I would consider Stratton the last "sure thing" in the bullpen. He is a spin rate monster and did a better job pushing off the rubber as the season progressed. He allowed 19 earned runs over 46.2 innings as a reliever with the Pirates last year, but nine of those runs came in just two appearances. He could go three or four innings if necessary.

• LHP Robbie Erlin: Erlin had an ugly 5.37 ERA last year, but his 3.61 FIP would indicate he was unlucky. He bounced between the Padres' rotation and bullpen last year, so some consistency could do him good. Like Stratton, he could eat some innings if necessary. He was a minor-league free agent, so he will need to be added to the roster.

• RHP Dovydas Neverauskas: Between the expanded rosters, Santana's suspension and an offseason regime change, Neverauskas is, against all odds, in position to get one last shot with the Pirates. He was once a highly regarded prospect. Now he has one more chance to prove he can get batters out. If he doesn't, then he might not get through the roster cuts.

• Long Relief Steven Brault: Brault could end up in the rotation instead of Holland or Kuhl, but he has experience as a reliever and has made the jump from the bullpen to the rotation midseason before. He put together a really impressive half-season last year, but was hit hard or hurt for the other half. His spring was cut short after suffering a similar left shoulder strain that caused him to miss a month in 2019.

• Long Relief Clay Holmes: Holmes' spring ended before it could really begin after being struck in the foot by a line drive in just his third outing. He kept his arm active while sidelined, even if it meant throwing from his knees. Holmes is in the same boat as Neverauskas, getting one more chance to prove himself as a Pirate, but seems close to the chopping block if someone pitches well in camp or when rosters get trimmed.

TAXI  SQUAD

And to round out the group, let's look at some of the candidates who could join the team from the taxi squad this season. The Pirates will be allowed to take three taxi squad players on road trips, so it seems safe to say at least one will be a pitcher.

• SP JT Brubaker: Brubaker was on pace to pitch in the majors in 2019 before an elbow injury sidelined him for most of the year. The Pirates' 2018 minor-league pitcher of the year started to experiment tunneling his breaking pitch with more mid-90s fastballs this spring. If the five projected starters and Brault aren't enough, Brubaker is probably the next guy up for that rotation.

• SP Cody Ponce: Ponce reestablished himself as a prospect last year for the Brewers after transitioning to the bullpen, but the Pirates moved him back to the rotation after acquiring him for Jordan Lyles. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid-90s and he has two breaking pitches, so he could theoretically fit in as either an emergency starter or reliever on this team.

• SP James Marvel: The Pirates' 2019 minor-league pitcher of the year was hit hard in two of his four September starts last year, but performed much better in the two with Jacob Stallings behind the plate. A low-90s fastball won't turn many heads, but the curveball is a valuable tool when he has it working. He is experimenting with a slider to help get right-handed batters out. It's hard to project how valuable an inning-eater is in a shortened season and with expanded rosters, but if the Pirates need one, Marvel is their guy.

• RHP Blake Cederlind: Cederlind has a huge arm but is still very raw, having pitched just six innings in triple-A. Watching him mow down batters with a 100 mph power sinker this spring, he probably could slide into the bullpen right now, assuming the Pirates don't mind some growing pains. He is already on the 40-man roster, meaning adding him wouldn't require a corresponding move.

• RHP Geoff Hartlieb: Hartlieb had a rough spring, walking seven and allowing nine runs over 6.1 innings. He also was tagged in his first taste of the majors in 2019, recording an ERA of 9.00. In fairness, he performed much better in triple-A and was hampered with a foot injury last year. He has a rare combination of velocity and spin. It will be up to the new coaching staff to get the most of that.

• LHP Sam Howard: There isn't a lot about Howard's game that really jumps off the board, but the Pirates don't have much depth as far as left-handed relief, especially if both Brault and Holland are in the rotation. He likes to pound the top of the zone with a 93 mph four-seamer, but relies more on his slider. Perhaps getting out of Denver is just what he needs.

Upcoming in the 2020 summer camp preview series


Wednesday: Projecting the Pirates' lineup, what role with the DH play?


Thursday: Reexamining the Pirates from where the season left off