What happens to Archer after surgery?

The Pirates went into 2020 knowing they would be without their staff ace, Jameson Taillon, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery.

On Tuesday, they found out they would be without their No. 2, as well. Chris Archer underwent surgery to relieve symptoms of neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome, meaning that if there is a 2020 season, he won't be a part of it.

It raises concerns about what the 2020 Pirates' rotation will look like, and what Archer's future with the club will be.

"He’s a really skilled pitcher," general manager Ben Cherington said during a Zoom call Wednesday. "He’s been a really successful starting pitcher in the major leagues. We need more of those. It’s tough news for us. It’s even tougher news for him, that he’s not going to be able to be out there and pitch. We need to figure out a way to compensate for that longer-term."

Let's start with Archer's future.



When the Pirates acquired Archer during the 2018 trade deadline, they were getting a durable pitcher on a team-friendly contract, both in terms of salary and number of years. Archer had one more guaranteed season remaining in 2019, but then he had two affordable club options. So affordable, in fact, that even though Archer struggled for most of 2019 and had his year cut short with a shoulder injury, it still made more sense to pick up his $9 million option than give him the $1.75 million buyout.

Archer has one option remaining in 2021. This one is valued at $11 million, with only a $250,000 buyout. Don't expect that option decision to be made anytime soon.

“As with any contract decision, option or otherwise, we’re going to take advantage of all of the time that we possibly have to make those decisions, and there’s a lot that we’ll learn over the next several months," Cherington said.

Archer hasn't been very durable in Pittsburgh. He finished 2019 on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. He missed a couple weeks in early May with a thumb injury. He needed to have a bilateral hernia repaired after the 2018 season, and he missed his final few turns through the rotation that year, too. He only made one spring start this year after experiencing neck stiffness.

From 2014-2017, Archer made at least 32 starts a year and totaled 809 innings pitched. It seems unlikely he has another 32 start, 200 inning season left in him, and a lot of his value came from being a workhorse.

If Cherington had hoped to trade Archer this offseason, he may be out of luck. This could potentially be a very budget-conscious winter across the league, especially if owners take significant financial losses. Archer would certainly garner attention if he was a free agent, especially if he was willing to take a one-year deal to rebuild value, but $11 million is a bit rich for a one-year reclamation project.

Considering that Archer has struggled as a Pirate and has made trips to the injured list, it would be hard to envision him having much trade value this winter. Teams will have free agent options of pitchers looking for short term deals, and many will not cost that much salary. A free agent won't cost them a player in return, either.

The Pirates could bet that he will rebound and they could flip him at the trade deadline, presenting no other risk than a one-year, $11-million salary, but for a team that could potentially be going through arbitration with half of its roster, that may be a bit too expensive. That is, unless they are sure they can win the bet.

As for the 2020 Pirates, assuming there is a season, that would mean Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams would move to the top of the rotation. Those are the only two spots you can write in pen, but they have options beyond that. Cherington also listed Mitch Keller and Derek Holland as likely candidates, and director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Steven Brault and Clay Holmes have both recovered from their spring training injuries and will be ready when the team reconvenes.

Having both Brault and Holland in the rotation could open up a spot for a lefty in the bullpen, like Robbie Erlin.

Cherington also said he and Derek Shelton were "definitely encouraged" by what Chad Kuhl showed this spring, but he will let Shelton and the coaches decide how he should be utilized.

But at least in the short term, it seems unlikely the Pirates will be able to bring in another pitcher to replace Archer.

"I would imagine that every team in baseball will be looking to hoard pitching, not give it away," Cherington said. "That’s part of the reason why I say that really our focus is going to be mostly on the guys who are here in the organization."

In terms of results, it would not be very difficult to replace Archer's stats from last year. He finished last season with a 3-9 record and 5.19 ERA. On the more analytical side, he had a 5.02 FIP, 1.41 WHIP and just 0.8 WAR. It would not be too hard to find a slightly above replacement level pitcher within the organization, but that wasn't Archer's best. He could be better. He actually pitched much better once he ditched the sinker Neal Huntington and company forced on him.

In spring training, he was optimistic about the year ahead. It wasn't just him who was excited for 2020.

“The one thing about Chris Archer is he’s really good. But when he’s motivated, he’s even better,” Shelton said during PiratesFest in January. “And I think ‘Arch’ thrives on people telling him he can’t do things. He’s going to prove to you that he can. I’m excited about Chris Archer this year. I’m excited talking to him, just knowing him as a person, hearing it in his voice, the way he is. I’m excited about where Arch is at.”

Despite the Pirates finishing in last place in 2019, Cherington purposefully didn't tear down the roster he inherited because he wanted to assess the players he had, plus he believed they could improve with a change in coaching and philosophy. It seemed like Archer was going to be one of the main beneficiaries of that change in direction.

Instead, unless his rehab goes well and the team feels confident enough to take an $11 million gamble on him, he may never appear in a Pirates uniform again.