Simulated Pirates pitching (virtual) lights-out

The Major League Baseball season was supposed to start one month ago, on March 26. There has been very little out of the baseball world since then, with the exception being proposals and plans about how to get the season started as soon as safely possible.

While we have all had to go this baseball-less month together, there have been some quality simulations of how the 2020 season could be going. Two of the very best are being done by Baseball-Reference, which is powered through the Out of the Park video game, and Strat-O-Matic.

The two sims offer two very different projections of how the Pirates have performed through their first 28 games. Here is what they have to say:

BASEBALL-REFERENCE'S SIM

One month of Baseball-Reference's simulated season is in the books and the Pirates are in the mix of things. They are 15-13 and in third place in the NL Central, trailing the division leading Reds by a game and a half and sitting a game out of a tie for a wild card. The highlight of the young season has been their first homestand, taking five of seven from the Reds and Cubs.

Josh Bell is, not surprisingly, leading the offense, slashing .269/.438/..548 with six home runs and 17 RBIs. While a 35 home run, 100 RBI pace is hardly a surprise for Bell, he also has 1.3 WAR, implying his defense and baserunning have greatly improved.

Adam Frazier is enjoying the best start to his career, posting an .883 OPS and 1.2 WAR. Gregory Polanco is swinging the bat like the Polanco of old, homering five times with 20 RBIs. Bryan Reynolds has had a power dip, but a .348/.402/.446 slash line is still very good. Jarrod Dyson has also been a solid contributor, getting on base enough and providing value in the field and on the base paths, being worth 0.6 WAR.

On the flip side, Colin Moran has lost his starting job after hitting .127 with no extra-base hits. Kevin Newman is also suffering from a sophomore slump, batting .198 and being worth -0.2 WAR.

Chris Archer is pitching some of the best ball of his life, recording a 1.83 through his first six starts. The rest of the rotation has started nicely as well, with everyone recording an ERA under 4.00 thus far. Nick Burdi has taken over as closer and has recorded nine saves already, and while Keone Kela has been hit hard early, Kyle Crick and Michael Feliz have done a good job as set-up men.

All told, this simulated Pirates team braved through a difficult beginning of the season and emerged with a winning record. It's a very good start.

STRAT-O-MATIC'S SIM

This is the pessimistic Pirates simulation.

At this point, the Pirates are 10-18, tied with the Giants for the worst record in baseball, mostly due to an anemic offense. Bell has seven home runs, but a .295 on-base percentage is severely hurting his productivity.

Reynolds still has a healthy .358 OBP, but his power dip is more severe in this sim, slugging just .370. Newman is struggling here too, slashing .279/.295/.302, Polanco is batting .169 and Frazier has not homered in 124 plate appearances. The only bright spot is Moran, who is getting by with an .803 OPS.

The starting pitching looks marginally better, though. Archer is again leading the way with a 2.67 ERA, and Trevor Williams (3.25), Joe Musgrove (4.01) and Mitch Keller (3.72) have done well too. Kela has regained his form in this sim, picking up eight saves, and Crick and Richard Rodriguez are leading the way in the bullpen.

So while this sim has been unkind to the Pirates, they forecast a much better pitching performance. That's common in both sims. Obviously that's a small sample size to work off of, but that's good news for the Pirates going forward, who desperately need to improve their pitching from 2019. If that happens, then the team results could be more like Baseball-Reference's sim than Strat-O-Matic's.