SARASOTA, Fla. -- The ball boomed off Colin Moran's bat, as it does anytime he barrels up with that looping swing, and bounced up off the base of the right-field fence.
It'd be the best show of power all afternoon and, as if to punctuate that ...
Next up, Jacob Stallings, swinging K.
Next up, Kevin Kramer, swinging K.
Next up, Will Craig, swinging K.
Bubbly as it's been around here, with players absolutely raving about the upbeat approach being applied by Derek Shelton and staff -- seriously, I've never heard it to this extreme in any spring training -- there's one subject guaranteed to gut any mood: Who's going to hit the home runs?
Meaning other than Josh Bell, of course.
"We need 'em," Bell was telling me before the Pirates' 13-0 exhibition loss to the Orioles on this cool Thursday afternoon at old Ed Smith Stadium. "I know that much."
OK, but how many? And from whom?
"I'd say three of us need to hit 25 or more. And I think we can. We've got that in here."
Bell's built like an NFL edge rusher, so I wasn't about to insult him and circle around the clubhouse in search of the other two. But I doubt I'd have seen one, anyway.
In 2019, the team as a whole hit 163 home runs, an obvious ratio of one per game, and 28th of Major League Baseball's 30 teams. The broader slugging percentage of .420, ranked 22nd.
Individually, Bell broke out for 37, this despite a dropoff in the second half and sitting out most of September. He's capable of more, but seeking much more is unfair from anyone. He himself cites the 40 figure most often, though hardly accompanied by any kind of prediction.
"I'm trusting my swing, trusting my approach," he said before beaming: "I'm excited."
Nice, but next in line in 2019 was Starling Marte at 23 home runs, a level he'll blow through this summer in hitter-friendly Phoenix. And after that were Bryan Reynolds at 16, Moran at 13, Kevin Newman at 12, and Adam Frazier, Jose Osuna and the Artist Formerly Known as Jung Ho Kang at 10 apiece.
See what I mean?
Everything about Reynolds' rookie season was excellent, from his .314/.377/.503 slash line to the home runs, but hoping for nine more home runs in 2020 goes against all reasonable projections for his career path. In 1,088 minor-league at-bats, he produced a total of 28 home runs.
A couple more, maybe. But there couldn't be anything dumber than asking this kid to change a thing.
"We'll hit, and we'll hit for power," Reynolds told me. "I don't necessarily think it has to come from a couple people."
Who else, then?
Moran had more of that pedigree in the minors, and his overall .277/.322/.429 work in 2019 was stronger, I think, than most realize. But there's no guarantee he'll hold onto third base in any substantive way, given his defense and the imminent arrival of Ke'Bryan Hayes. So an infield corner that should be providing power, in all likelihood, won't change much.
"I don't think you really ever focus on hitting home runs," Moran told me. "You just want to work toward hitting your pitch, driving it."
Newman, with all due respect to his own breakout having rivaled Reynolds', isn't built for power, owner of the classic old-school shortstop's frame. Might be a couple more there, and that's it.
Frazier's definitely capable of more than his 10, fully recovered from the hand injury he'd recently revealed held him back in 2019, but he's got 28 in 1,424 big-league at-bats.
I suppose Gregory Polanco, healthy and happy again, could enter this equation, but that still requires a whale of a leap. Setting aside continuing uncertainty about the shoulder, he hit 22 home runs in 2016, 23 in 2018, and never more than 11 any other year. So we're talking career year for this to occur.
Then there's Craig.
He's the 25-year-old first-round draft pick from 2016. A few players, including Bell and Reynolds, mentioned him to me in discussing this column's subject, and understandably. He hit 22 home runs for Altoona two years ago, 23 for Indianapolis last year. And he put a fair amount of air underneath a few of those, further bolstering the perception of power potential. But he also slashed .249/.326/.435 with just 30 doubles last year, so he's got work to do to shed the all-or-nothing label.
I spoke before this game with two American League scouts in attendance, both of whom have seen Craig extensively. One praised Craig's natural power as well as a fearless approach in big situations. The other expressed concern about Craig's ability to handle fastballs inside. But both agreed he can hit home runs at any level of baseball anywhere.
One other issue, raised by one of the scouts: "You're not moving him off first base."
Oh. That's kind of taken.
Well, not to be that guy, but the Pirates perennially lead the Grapefruit League in home runs, even when they've been terrible, by simple virtue of playing home games in windswept Bradenton. That included 46 home runs in 33 exhibitions last spring, sixth-most in the majors. And this spring, through seven exhibitions, they've got ... one. Fewer than any team in Florida or Arizona. To boot, it was a wind-carried lazy fly by third-string catcher John Ryan Murphy.
And on this day, one in which very few regulars made the short trip south, there'd be all of four hits, half of them by Moran, his double being the only one to achieve extra bases.
Ow.
• Keone Kela, the Pirates' new closer, followed journeyman starter Hector Noesi's two scoreless innings with a busier-than-he'd-hoped third: Three runs on three extra-base hits, including a two-run home run to left by Pat Valaika, and a wild pitch.
Which offers yet another chance to remind that, particularly for pitchers who know they'll be on the roster, these numbers mean precious little. They'll focus on one or two pitches, to try them in game settings and see if they're worth carrying into the season. They don't do any sort of pregame on hitter matchups. They don't do any designed shifting. Nothing of the kind.
It's about delivery, release point, conviction and target. The end.
And for what it's worth, his breaking stuff was dynamic and effective.
• My goodness, Geoff Hartlieb's bad at baseball. He recorded two outs in the fourth inning amid five runs, four hits, a couple of blasted doubles, a walk ... can't begin to imagine what anyone saw in bringing him back. It was 7-0 by the time Shelton yanked him mid-inning.
What could anyone have seen to bring this one back?
• It's not as if he was alone, though: Chris Stratton and Cody Ponce was each tagged for two runs. And you know, the more one sees of the painfully familiar faces from late 2019 like these, the more one pines for the new flamethrowing blood -- Nick Burdi, Blake Cederlind, etc. -- to press fast-forward and help sooner rather than later.
• Or Chad Kuhl, for that matter. He'll make his momentous return to competition Friday against the Orioles, back up in Bradenton. He'll make a real difference once he's right.
• On a lighter note, the Orioles -- not the Ravens, mind you -- pump in crowd noise during popup drills each morning:
As God is my witness, the Orioles are out here right now pumping NFL-style crowd noise into their spring stadium during popup drills. Folks here in Sarasota tell me they do this a lot. Why? #DKPS #Pirates pic.twitter.com/XLtnPPc7t5
— Dejan Kovacevic (@Dejan_Kovacevic) February 27, 2020
This will serve them well when facing the Colts.
• To the aforementioned upbeat approach around here: As much as the players clearly appreciate that Shelton and staff bring a lighter touch than Clint Hurdle and other predecessors -- "This is how I always imagined life in the big leagues would be," one veteran told me -- I can't bring myself to put much weight in it. Not in either direction. This collective lost 93 games in 2019 and collapsed in the second half, and there's no circumstance in which they can emerge blameless for that, never mind blaming a manager and coaches for being too tough on them.
I appreciate Shelton keeping spirits high. We'll see how this unfolds.
• The Pirates are 0-6-1 in Grapefruit ball. Which matters exactly the same as if they'd be 6-0-1.
Manny Sanguillen is greeted by a local photographer. - DEJAN KOVACEVIC / DKPS• Closing on a happy note, nothing's more uplifting down here than seeing the Pirates' greats of the past. On this day, Manny Sanguillen was right by the cage to watch the early work in Bradenton, looking good and pronouncing himself "as healthy as I can be." Others are here, as well, notably Bill Mazeroski, John Candelaria and, of course, always, Steve Blass. True champions all.
• I'm flying home. Alex Stumpf will be back on his beat Friday.
