From a renewed commitment to defense, to Bryan Rust emerging as a scoring threat, to Tristan Jarry becoming an All-Star, there are plenty of reasons why the Penguins remain among the NHL's elite.
But the biggest reason is the oldest one: The team's core stars just refuse to age.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang have all missed time this season due to injury, but they've been as good as ever when skating in 2019-20. In a league teeming with stars in their early twenties, these three are still holding it down and turning in some of the best performances ever for players well into their thirties.
At ages where even top NHL stars start to decline, Crosby (32), Malkin (33) and Letang (32) are exceeding their already stellar career averages in total offense, puck possession and all-around value. Consider:
• Malkin is averaging 1.38 points per game, which is well above his 1.19 career average and is tied for the second-best mark of his career (behind 1.45 in 2011-12). He ranks fifth among all NHL forwards with 20+ games played in points per game.
• Crosby (1.21) is right around his career average (1.29) and places 12th among forwards.
• Letang, meanwhile, has 0.75 points per game in 2019-20. That bests his career average (0.66) and ranks ninth among defensemen with 20+ games played.
It's rare for 30-something players to rank among the game's offensive elite. The average age of the top 25 forwards in points per game this season is just 26.7, according to Hockey Reference. The average age of the top 25 defensemen is 27.2. Crosby, Malkin and Letang are among the all-time greats in scoring among, ahem, seasoned players.
Hockey Reference tracks a stat called adjusted points, which takes a player's offensive production and scales it to account for the league-wide offensive environment in which he played. It's a quick and dirty way to make comparisons among players who skated in different offensive eras.
Malkin has 2.26 adjusted points per game this season, which is the second-highest single-season total ever for an NHL forward who was at least 32 years old (minimum 20 games played). He trails only Martin St. Louis, who racked up 2.38 adjusted points per game back in 2012-13. Old friend Chris Kunitz is third (2.06 per game with the Penguins in 2012-13), and Crosby's 2019-20 season places fourth at 2.0 per game.
On the blue line, Letang's 2019-20 campaign (1.23 adjusted points per game) ranks sixth all-time in single-season offense among defensemen at age 32 or older. The top five: Paul Coffey (2.22 in 1994-95), Ray Bourque (1.63 in 1994-95), Chris Chelios (1.38 in 1994-95), Larry Murphy (1.35 with the Penguins in 1994-95) and Keith Yandle (1.33 in 2019-20).
• The Penguins' trio of older stars is driving puck possession more than usual. With Crosby on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins are generating 6.8 percent more of the game's total shots compared to when he's on the bench. That exceeds his career average (plus 4.9 percent). Malkin (+5.7 percent this year, +2.6 percent career) and Letang (+5.4 percent, +4.1 career) are also helping the team dictate the game above and beyond their career rates.
• Hockey Reference also tracks a stat called point shares, which accounts for a player's total offensive and defensive value in terms of points contributed in the standings. Malkin (0.16 point shares per game) ranks 12th among all NHL skaters in 2019-20, while Letang (0.14) places 21st and Sid (0.12) comes in at 27th. Malkin is topping his career point-shares-per-game rate (0.14), as is Letang (0.11). Sid (0.15) is below his career mark but still among the game's upper tier. The average age of the top 25 players in point shares this season? 27.6.
The Penguins have a history of elder statesmen turning in elite performances. Even so, the 2019-20 seasons by Crosby, Malkin and Letang all rank among the 10 best in franchise history in point shares per game by players age 32 or older (minimum 20 games played):
As long as Crosby, Malkin and Letang play this well, the Penguins are going to stay in the Stanley Cup conversation.
For these guys, 30 really is the new 20.
MORE PENGUINS
• Pettersson extended: After two years of quality two-way play, Marcus Pettersson earned a long-term extension that will pay him slightly more than $4 million annually. The lanky Swede, still just 23 years old, has become one of the more reliable defenders in the league and a guy who drives puck possession for the Penguins. Since the start of the 2018-19 season, Pettersson ranks fourth among NHL defensemen in goals allowed per 60 minutes of five-on-five play (minimum 2,000 minutes), with 1.97 allowed when he's on the ice. He also ranks 20th in shots allowed per 60 minutes (29.6) and 13th in scoring chances allowed (24.4), per Natural Stat Trick. Overall, the Penguins have generated about 3 percent more of the game's total shots when Pettersson is on the ice at even strength compared to their shot share when he's on the bench, according to Hockey Reference. He's already an asset as a stellar defender who chips in modest offense (0.31 points per game in Pittsburgh). If he can elevate his offensive game -- something both Mike Sullivan and Jim Rutherford have referenced -- Pettersson will make the Penguins look shrewd for locking him up through the 2024-25 season.
• Anaheim heist: Speaking of Rutherford, it's looking like he absolutely fleeced the Ducks to acquire Pettersson. Back when the Penguins traded Daniel Sprong for Pettersson in December of 2018, some thought that Rutherford gave up a potential 30-goal scorer for a modestly skilled defenseman. But while Pettersson has excelled, Sprong can't stick in the NHL for a team that's buried at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Since arriving in Pittsburgh, Pettersson has contributed 6.3 point shares. Sprong, meanwhile, has 2.2 point shares while still getting panned for his play away from the puck.
PIRATES
• Marte's legacy: With Starling Marte in Arizona, it's time to take stock of where the supremely talented — and, at times, supremely frustrating — outfielder ranks in franchise history. Over his eight-year career, Marte compiled the 25th highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total among Pirates position players. WAR measures the value of a player's bat, glove and base running compared to a fringe major leaguer. He places 42nd in park and league-adjusted offense (16 percent above the overall MLB average), 20th in home runs (108) and eighth in stolen bases (239). He's one of only seven Pirates to have at least 100 career homers and stolen bases, with the others being Andrew McCutchen, Barry Bonds, Dave Parker, Andy Van Slyke, Paul Waner and Al Martin. Marte never reached superstardom, swung at everything, and occasionally made forehead-slapping plays on the bases. But he was also a dynamic complementary player during an era where Pirates baseball, if for just a brief time, recaptured the city's heart.
• Bell's D: Whether it's the Pirates or eventually some other trade or free agent suitor, Josh Bell is going to get paid to mash. But there's no denying that his defensive woes at first base hurt his value. Over the past two years, Bell's glove has cost the Pirates about 14 runs compared to an average defensive first baseman, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) stat. DRS measures how many runs a player saves or squanders compared to an average defender at his position, accounting for items like range, throwing arm, turning double plays and sure-handedness. That's dead last among regular first basemen over the 2018 and 2019 seasons, by a wide margin. The closest defender is Ryon Healy, with -9 DRS. If Bell thrashes pitches like he did during the first half last year, it won't matter much. But if he's merely a good hitter moving forward, the bad D will dent his value.
• Unlucky lefty? Is Robbie Erlin a bounce back candidate in 2020? The 29-year-old lefty, recently signed to a minor-league deal, had an ugly 5.37 ERA last year with the San Diego Padres. His Fielding Independent ERA (FIP), however, was a much more palatable 3.61. FIP estimates what a pitcher's ERA "should" have been based on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed — the outcomes that are more directly controlled by the man on the mound. Was Erlin simply unlucky? To some extent, but the story is a little more complicated than that. About 44 percent of balls put in play off Erlin last year were classified as hard-hit, according to Fangraphs. The league average is about 38 percent. Those hard-hit balls are much more likely to fall for hits and lead to extra-base damage. And throughout his career, Erlin has surrendered a higher batting average on balls in play (.316) than most pitchers, while posting an ERA (4.57) that's much worse than his FIP (3.59) in 313 innings pitched. One year with that big of a split between ERA and FIP could be chalked up to a fluke. But when a pitcher consistently underperforms over many seasons, you have to wonder if he just serves up too much hard contact.
STEELERS
• Hall of Fame havoc: Newly named Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu terrorized opponents like few others in NFL history and helped redefine the safety position now filled with hybrid players who are capable against the run and in pass coverage. Here's a reminder of how special and multi-talented Polamalu was: He's one of just nine defensive backs to compile at least 30 career interceptions, 10 sacks and 10 forced fumbles during the post-merger era (1970-present). The other names on that list are Rod Woodson, Charles Woodson, Ronde Barber, Albert Lewis, LeRoy Butler, Brian Dawkins, Ray Crockett and Rodney Harrison. Polamalu could blow up a game plan and change the outcome in so many ways.
• Under pressure: You often hear about the importance of a defense’s various units working together. If the front seven gets a strong push and harasses the QB, for example, it’s easier for the guys in pass coverage to wreak havoc. We certainly witnessed that dynamic with the 2019 Steelers, who led the NFL by creating pressure on 30.6 percent of passing plays. The next-closest team was the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers, at 28.7 percent. In 2018, the Steelers generated pressure 27.5 percent of the time (sixth-best in the league). With QBs running for their lives, the team intercepted 20 passes (second-most) and had a league-best 19 percent turnover rate.
• Year 2 to-dos: 2019 first-round pick Devin Bush made enough plays — including recovering four fumbles and picking off two passes — to be named a Pro Bowl alternate and to garner some down-ballot Defensive Rookie of the Year votes. But the former Michigan Wolverines star still has some aspects of his game that need sharpening in year two. While Bush was touted as a rangy linebacker who would help solve the Steelers' problems in covering athletic tight ends and running backs, he struggled in coverage as a rookie. Bush allowed a 67.6 percent completion rate and a 97.4 passer rating when targeted in coverage, according to Pro Football Reference. He ranked 115th among qualified defenders in passer rating against and fell in the bottom 25 among qualified linebackers. He also missed tackles on 11.4 percent of attempts, which was 282nd among defenders and again among the bottom 25 at his position. Bush has explosive talent, but there's room for improvement here.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• QB for the ages: The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is having an all-time great beginning to his NFL career. The youngest Super Bowl MVP ever has the second-best adjusted passer rating in league history among QBs during their first three years (minumum 30 starts), according to Pro Football Reference. At 24 percent above the league average, Mahomes trails only Dan Marino (27 percent above average). Mahomes also has the seventh-most touchdowns (76) and 12th-most passing yards (9,412) through his age 24 season — and keep in mind, he did that while barely playing as a rookie. Kansas City might want to get familiar with planning parade routes.
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