This offseason's Mound Visits ended up being very defense driven. My first installment took a look at the worst ball and strike calls against the Pirates in 2019. I addressed the effects of pitch framing and catcher defense more directly when it became clear the Pirates were going to go with Jacob Stallings and another defensive catcher as their backstops. Shortly after Starling Marte was traded, there was an accompanying piece on if Bryan Reynolds could transition from left field to center. And finally, Baseball Savant released Outs Above Average (OAA) for infielders this winter, giving us not only a new tool to evaluate infield defense, but a new best tool.
When given this new wealth of information on infield defense, I immediately wrote about Colin Moran. Naturally. But in that article, I wrote I wanted to pen a separate piece for Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman, because they were also compelling cases worthy of an article, albeit in different ways.
According to Baseball Savant and Statcast, Frazier was one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball last year. Newman was one of the worst defensive shortstops, but with a tweak and some help from Frazier, I believe Newman could do much better in 2020 and help give the Pirates a solid defense up the middle.
Frazier had 11 OAA in 2019, the most among second basemen. Interestingly enough, according to Baseball Savant's data, Frazier did not improve that much in 2019. Instead, he really improved in 2018, when he started to get consistent playing time at second. In 2018, Frazier had an estimated success rate of fielding 90 percent of the plays within his range while at second, going based on the hit probability of those balls in play. He was successful 93 percent of the time, meaning he did marginally better. In 2019, he again had an estimated success rate of 90 percent and an actual success rate of 94 percent. He improved a little, but mostly he just got enough reps to prove he was worthy of being in the gold glove discussion.
Meanwhile, Newman had -8 OAA as a shortstop last year, the seventh-worst out of the 139 infielders with enough attempts to qualify. All told, he and Frazier combined to be an above-average middle infield defensively, +3 OAA, but in a very Jekyl- and-Hyde way.
The general consensus around Newman is he profiles better as a second baseman. In the event that Frazier is hurt or traded at some point, he likely will shift to second and Cole Tucker will take over shortstop. For now though, Newman is sticking at short, but like Moran, there may be a way to improve his defense by tweaking his positioning.
Let's take a look at Newman's OAA based on the batted ball's direction:
There are two areas of weakness: Going in on infield hits and ranging to his right toward the third-base side. Coming in on the ball is a tricky fix. You don't have much wiggle room depth-wise for middle infielders.
They do, however, have some flexibility laterally. Let's examine where Newman traditionally set up on defense, excluding shifts since those are outliers. When the Pirates did not shift, that red dot is where he traditionally started against right-handed hitters compared to other qualified shortstops. It's a little hard to see, so I also included another version with just him and Tucker as a reference point.
And here is where he was traditionally positioned against left-handed hitters. This time it's much more clear, so I don't need to include a second graphic.
So the Pirates have a shortstop who struggles going to his right. That's not a knock on Newman since it's the most demanding play an infielder is asked to make. It's a play he will probably have to make less often once the human vacuum Ke'Bryan Hayes gets promoted to the majors. But what did the Pirates do with Newman in 2018? They made him play closer to second base than just about any other shortstop. By extension, they made him cover more ground to his right than just about anyone.
I don't get it either. Yes, you have to position your fielders partially based on a hitter's spray charts, but if you are not also taking your infielder's range, strengths and weaknesses into account, then you aren't using the data correctly.
Let's examine another player Pirates fans are familiar with: Javier Baez. Love him or hate him, there is no denying he is one heck of a defender. His 19 OAA were the most among infielders last year, but hey, you didn't need a stat to tell you that he's really good.
He also struggled going to his right in 2018, costing his team -4 OAA while playing shortstop. In 2019, he was +4 OAA going to right. Here is where he was positioned in 2019:
The Cubs leaned into his weakness and moved him closer to third base. He had less ground to cover in the hole as a result. It worked. He is one of the best fielding infielders because of his natural talent, his work ethic and his positioning. Newman may not be Baez in terms of natural talent, but he works hard, too. A big problem for him is the team put him in a bad spot, both literally and figuratively.
But there is one more factor that needs to be taken into account. If the Pirates or Newman were to take a page out of Baez's book and shift to the right a bit, that creates more of a hole up the middle. Frazier will need to shade closer to the second base bag to accommodate, which creates a hole to his left.
Guess where Frazier did his best work last year?
That's right, when he was going to his left. This seems like a slam dunk. I'm willing to admit my Moran piece was more theoretical and I basically concede surrendering singles in the hope of turning the same amount of potential doubles into outs. This is far more practical. Shift your gold-glove-nominated second baseman over a bit to make his double-play partner's job a little easier.
Little miscues like infielder positioning plagued the Pirates the past few years. They once fixed their infield defense by relying heavily on positioning during shifts. Now they need to do the same when they are in traditional defenses too.
Stats and graphics courtesy of Baseball Savant.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Jan. 31: Can Bryan Reynolds play center?
Jan. 29: Five outfielders to replace Marte
Jan. 16: Is Moran’s glove hopeless?
Jan. 3: All-decade worst Pirates team
