While the Starling Marte trade could benefit the club in the long run, it does create an immediate need in center field for the 2020 Pirates. Ben Cherington reiterated Monday he is looking to add another outfielder, ideally one who can play center, before spring training gets underway. I made a list of candidates who could potentially fit that bill in the last Mound Visit. However, until such a player is signed, we have to assume an internal option will take over center field, at least for the time being.
With that being said, there aren't many players to examine. There are only three outfielders on the roster who are even candidates: Bryan Reynolds, Guillermo Heredia and Jason Martin. Martin is recovering from a left shoulder injury that required surgery. Heredia profiles much better in left than in center, and it looks like he would be the starter there if the Pirates don't add someone.
That leaves Reynolds, who is probably the one penciled in center at the moment. Cherington said during the winter meetings in December that he would be comfortable with Reynolds playing regularly in center, and Reynolds himself is up for the task.
"Honestly, I'm just as comfortable in center. Maybe even a little more," Reynolds said during PiratesFest Saturday. "I just feel like it's a truer read out there. [I] played there growing up, I played there in college and obviously in the minors and some last year. So really anywhere out there, I'm perfectly comfortable."
By most metrics, Reynolds graded out as a little-better-than-average fielder last year. Fielding Bible has him down for +3 defensive runs saved, and Baseball Savant has him at +2 outs above average. However, that does not take into consideration that Reynolds played all three outfield positions. He was the only player to start at least 25 games in left, center and right field last year. In Pirates history, only he, Bill Robinson (1976) and Brian Giles (2000) played at least 25 games at each outfield position in a season, and Giles is the only other to start 25 at each. He's a unique defender.
But there is a difference between being able to play center field a couple dozen times in a season and being the everyday center fielder. From what we saw last year, I think it's safe to say he looked fine fielding the position. He passed the eye test. Now let's dive deeper.
To be fair, this is going to be more theoretical than exact. I don't think 188 innings in center is enough to consider DRS or UZR (or UZR/150) useful tools. OAA can not be broken down by position (an oversight by Baseball Savant that will hopefully be rectified someday), and even if it did, again, the sample size is too small to take it seriously.
Instead, we'll be looking at some of the traits of a good center fielder and see how Reynolds compares. There really isn't a great stat to evaluate his arm as a center fielder, so we'll be focusing on if he can cover the necessary ground to man the position.
The first is obvious: Speed. Center field is the one position on the diamond where you absolutely cannot be slow. While he may not have stolen a lot of bases last year, Reynolds is absolutely not slow.
The average sprint speed among position players last year is 27 feet per second. Reynolds' sprint speed was 28.1 ft/sec, putting him in the top 25 percent in baseball. That is a little on the slow side for center fielders, putting him about 52nd of the 76 players who qualified as center fielders last year, but he is still a hair faster than players like Kevin Pillar, Juan Lagares and Lorenzo Cain, and they all excel defensively.
So he can run well at top speed, but how about that first step? Baseball Savant comes to the rescue again with "Jump," which measures how much ground an outfielder covered on non-routine plays in the three seconds after a pitch's release. wrote a good piece introducing Jump back in June, and I examined how the Pirates outfielders fared in the new stat for Bucs Dugout shortly after.
In short, Jump is broken down into three categories: Reaction time, their initial burst of speed and how direct their route was. Reynolds had OK Jumps, covering, on average, -0.3 feet less than the average outfielder, but that was a little better than half of the qualified outfielders.
Let's examine those three parts of Reynolds' Jump. His burst was 0.1 ft/sec better than average. Knowing his sprint speed, that is not too surprising.
His reaction time was his only real weakness, coming in at -1.1 ft/sec worse than average. I think this is a bit deceiving, though. While Baseball Savant won't let users break down Jump by position or by month, that Bucs Dugout piece I wrote is going to come in handy here. On the date of that article's publication, June 11, his reaction time was -0.7 ft/sec. That's still not great, but it is better.
It was around this time that Reynolds was moved away from primarily laying left field and started bouncing around the outfield. While it may not seem like that big a deal to go from left to right field, it's a completely different read off the bat, especially when it is slicing away from you. It makes sense that it would take a fraction of a second longer to get a read when your viewpoint changes from night to night. I think if Reynolds played primarily one position, his reaction time would improve.
Finally, there's his route running. It may take Reynolds a bit longer than some to get a read on the ball, but when he does, he takes direct routes. He averaged 0.6 ft/sec more than the average outfielder last year, 18th best among qualified outfielders. Going back to his Jump stats in June, he was at 0.3 ft/sec when I examined it Bucs Dugout. That's a pretty significant increase, especially with two months of results already in the books. He got better at this as his rookie season progressed.
So Reynolds runs well and could very well be one of the better players in getting a jump on the ball in 2020. There's one more thing I want to mention before I wrap up this Mound Visit. It's a bit juvenile, but I think it's an important part of examining Reynolds as a fielder. He likes to dive. He's good at it, too, whether that means he is going to his right...
...or his left...
...but it can get him into trouble, too. We saw plays last year when he dove when he really should not have, and the batter took an extra base as a result. But the pros outweighed the cons, and it's not like Reynolds ever dove for the sake of diving. Take that top gif, for example. Here is the route he ran to get to the ball:
That's a pretty direct route, taking just one baby step to correct his trajectory halfway through. The dive was necessary, and it gave him a little extra range. A little extra range could make or break Reynolds' chances as an everyday center fielder.
If the Pirates end up signing a Pillar or Billy Hamilton, then Reynolds would probably be better suited in left or right field. But if it needs to be Reynolds in center, either for a couple starts, an extended period of time or for the entire season, it looks like he could handle it. This goes beyond the "If you can play left field at PNC Park, you can play center" argument. He may not be Marte, but Reynolds profiles well up the middle.
Stats and graphics courtesy of Baseball Savant and FanGraphs.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Jan. 29: Five outfielders to replace Marte
Jan. 16: Is Moran’s glove hopeless?
Jan. 3: All-decade worst Pirates team
Jan. 1: All-decade best Pirates team
