Jim Rutherford has pulled off some epic blue-line heists during his time in Pittsburgh. Acquiring Trevor Daley for Rob Scuderi. Liberating Justin Schultz from Edmonton. Picking up Marcus Pettersson for top prospect-turned-AHL also-ran Daniel Sprong. But he may have done his finest work this past summer, when he sent a sixth-round pick to the Oilers for John Marino.
At the time, it seemed like a low-profile deal to provide more defensive prospect depth. Instead, Marino has been brilliant on both sides of the puck while making a legitimate case for the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie.
At just 22 years old, Marino has earned big minutes. He's averaging 20:28 of ice time, which ranks behind only Kris Letang among Penguins defensemen. He's also fourth in ice time among rookie defensemen this year, behind Quinn Hughes, Ethan Bear and Cale Makar. And it's easy to see why Marino has earned the trust of coach Mike Sullivan, considering that the Harvard product has been a shutdown defender from day one and has picked up his offensive game over the past few months.
With Marino skating, the Penguins are surrendering just 26.8 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, according to Natural Stat Trick. That's the sixth-lowest rate among all NHL defensemen who have skated at least 500 minutes at even strength. Marino also earns high marks in scoring chances allowed (22.6, 16th among defensemen) and high-danger scoring chances (8.1, ranking fifth). The Harvard product has shown a penchant for creating turnovers, ranking 11th among defensemen in takeaways (2.0 per 60 minutes), and he's sacrificing the body with 3.7 shot blocks per 60 minutes (second among Penguins defenders, behind Letang).
Marino's rookie year would be impressive enough if he were merely a stellar defender. But he's flashing some offensive upside, too. With 0.49 points per game, Marino ranks within the top 50 among all NHL defensemen who have played at least 30 games this season. He has picked it up since November (0.61 points per game from November-January, compared to 0.1 per game in October). In Penguins history, the only rookie defensemen to average more points per game are Zarley Zalapski (0.78 in 1988-89), Ryan Whitney (0.56 in 2005-06) and Norm Schmidt (0.53 in 1983-84).
Two Penguins have earned the Calder Trophy as the league's best rookie: Mario Lemieux in 1984-85 and Evgeni Malkin in 2006-07. Considering Marino's two-way skill, and the lack of a rookie forward who's tearing it up offensively, he has a chance to become Pittsburgh's third Calder winner.
Marino ranks tied for second among all NHL rookies in Point Shares, a Hockey-Reference stat that measures a player's offensive and defensive contributions in terms of his team's overall point total in the standings.
Marino is on pace for more than eight point shares over the course of a full season--a level reached by only Larry Murphy, Kris Letang, Sergei Gonchar, Matt Niskanen, Paul Coffey, Ryan Whitney, Justin Schultz, Kevin Hatcher, Ron Stackhouse, Sergei Zubov, Randy Carlyle and Moe Mantha in franchise history. He's also on pace to top the all-time mark among rookie defensemen, set by Olli Maatta (6.6 in 2013-14).
Not even 50 games into his NHL career, Marino has already emerged as a reliable, two-way defender. That's way more than anyone could have expected for a sixth-rounder. But the truly exciting question is: How much better can he get? As we near the All-Star game, it's easy for fans to dream of Marino representing the club in the years to come.
MORE PENGUINS
• Hockey's Steel Curtain: There's a reason why Sullivan has gone out of his way to praise the bottom six line of Zach Aston-Reese, Teddy Blueger and Brandon Tanev. It's quite possibly the best defensive line in the game. Among NHL forwards who have skated at least 500 minutes during five-on-five play, Aston-Reese has the lowest rate of scoring chances allowed (17.7 per 60 minutes) while Tanev ranks third (19.8) and Blueger fourth (20.3). With these three guys skating together at five-on-five, the Penguins are allowing just 1.4 goals per 60 minutes. Even by this team's incredibly high standards, that's ridiculous (Pittsburgh is allowing 2.28 goals per 60 minutes at even strength overall, eighth in the league). With Tanev's speed, Aston-Reeses's strength and Blueger's savvy, these guys are shutting down the competition.
• Kahun clicking: It sure looks like Rutherford got the better end of the trade that shipped defenseman Olli Maatta to the Blackhawks for Dominik Kahun. Not only did Rutherford clear more than $3 million annually in cap space, but he picked up a young and inexpensive winger who has been a solid offensive contributor and a badger defensively. Kahun has increased his points per game total from 0.45 as a rookie in 2018-19 to 0.56 this year, while boosting the Penguins share of the game's shots by +2.2 percent during five-on-five play compared to when he's on the bench. Maatta, meanwhile, has dragged down his team's shot share by -0.3 percent at five-on-five.
PIRATES
• Keller's contact: Mitch Keller's 2019 results--including a park and league-adjusted ERA that was 40 percent worse than average--were lousy. But the process was much more promising. Keller induced much weaker contact than his ERA would suggest, which means that better days could be ahead for him in 2020. MLB Statcast tracks a pitcher's expected slugging percentage allowed, based on factors that include the exit velocity and launch angle of balls put in play as well as ballpark conditions. Basically, it takes the pitcher's defense and home field out of the equation and gives a better look at the quality of his stuff. Keller's actual slugging percentage allowed was .546, but his expected slugging percentage was a more more palatable .411. He had the third-largest negative split between his actual and expected slugging percentage, behind only Brock Stewart (.167 difference) and Edwin Diaz (.136). Don't give up on Keller--with better luck next year, he could be the club's best starter.
• Internal improvement: While the front office and coaching staff have undergone radical transformation, the Pirates' roster has barely changed at all since the end of the 2019 season. That's especially the case for the starting rotation. The team is no doubt hoping that, with a new pitching coach and better pitch-framing, a rotation that languished near the bottom of the league last year can show serious progress. Is that a good bet? According to the Depth Chart projections on Fangraphs, the Pirates' starters are forecast for 12.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2020. WAR measures a player's overall value compared to the kind of guy who can be claimed off waivers. That 12.3 WAR projection is 17th among MLB teams--not great, but better than last year's collective output of 8.3 WAR (21st in the majors). Chris Archer (3.0 projected WAR) has the best forecast, followed by Joe Musgrove (2.8), Keller (2.5), Trevor Williams (1.5) and Steven Brault (1.3).
• Newman stretched at short? With a new front office seemingly putting more of an emphasis on defense, it's fair to wonder whether GM Ben Cherington and company view Kevin Newman as a long-term shortstop. Newman's 2019 work didn't get high grades according to some of the more advanced defensive metrics out there. Take MLB Statcast's new Outs Above Average (OAA) system, for example. OAA measures the probability of a fielder making a play based on how far he has to go to field the ball, how much time he has to get there, his proximity to base runners and the speed of runners on force plays. If you make more plays than expected, you have a positive OAA total. If you make fewer plays, you're in the red. Newman had -8 OAA in 2019, which ranked 32nd out of 35 qualified shortstops. He especially struggled when it came to making plays while moving toward third base (-6 OAA). If Newman can keep hitting like he did in 2019, then maybe the Pirates live with his defense. But if the bat slips, so does his value.
STEELERS
• Conner's decline: During a season in which the offense went down in flames, James Conner might have had the most disappointing performance. Conner went from posting 1,470 yards from scrimmage and earning a Pro Bowl bid in 2018 to managing just 715 scrimmage yards during an injury-ravaged 2019. He averaged just 4.0 yards per carry, down from 4.5 in '18, and that drop off can't be entirely blamed on an underachieving offensive line or teams stacking the box against him. Conner trucked people during his big 2018 season, breaking a tackle every 10.8 rushing attempts, according to Pro Football Reference. That was the third-best broken tackle rate among all running backs who had at least 200 carries. This past year, Conner broke a tackle every 23.2 rushing attempts. That was the third-worst broken tackle rate among all qualified running backs. And in 2019, Conner actually faced eight or more defenders in the box way less (13.8 percent of the time) compared to 2018 (27.9 percent), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Conner wasn't on the field nearly enough in 2019 and, when he was, he didn't have the same brute strength. That's why the Steelers could be in the market for a number one back.
• A cap casualty? The Steelers signed Mark Barron last offseason to increase the team's pass coverage prowess at middle linebacker. But after a forgettable 2019 season, Barron--who has a cap hit of about $8.1 million next year--could be on his way out of Pittsburgh. Opponents completed 73.2 percent of passes when targeting Barron on coverage, while posting a 96.1 passer rating, according to Pro Football Reference. Barron had one of the 30 worst passer rating against among all NFL linebackers. For comparison's sake, he allowed a 59.5 percent completion rate and an 84.7 passer rating against during his last season with the Rams in 2018. The Steelers could save approximately $5.25 million against the cap by cutting Barron, according to the Over the Cap website. It wouldn't be surprising to see GM Kevin Colbert go that route.
• Haden holding it down: For the most part, NFL cornerbacks age in dog years. Once they lose a step, it's a steep and rapid decline from Pro Bowl to pink slip. Don't tell that to Joe Haden, though. The 30-year-old is still among the game's elite. Haden smothered receivers to the tune of a 60.9 passer rating when targeted in coverage, which placed fourth among NFL corners in 2019. He also earned high marks in yards per passing target (5.7, seventh in the league) and he snatched six interceptions (tied for second). The Steelers have to feel pretty good about having this guy under contract through the 2021 season for a combined $22 million.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• How the West was won: In 2019-20, the Eastern Conference has a clear competitive edge in the NHL. Four of the NHL's top five teams in points hail from the East, and the Eastern Conference has a collective .617 points percentage when facing their Western counterparts. The Penguins are annihilating the West like no other club, with a conference-best .807 points percentage.
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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
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