Through the process of elimination, it is starting to look more and more likely the Pirates will open the season with Jacob Stallings and Luke Maile as their catchers.
On Tuesday, Robinson Chirinos, the final big target free agent catcher available this winter, signed a one-year deal with the Rangers. The Pirates were connected to Chirinos during the MLB Winter Meetings in December, but were not able to land the veteran, despite him signing a fairly modest deal.
Per source, Chirinos will earn $5.75M in 2020, while the Rangers’ option for 2021 is worth $6.5M with a $1M buyout.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 8, 2020
With Chirinos unavailable, the free agent catcher market is now slim pickings. Yasmani Grandal, Jason Castro and Travis d’Arnaud have already found new homes. Russell Martin, 37, wants to keep playing, though he may be more interested in signing with a contender to get a ring before the end of his career. Jonathon Lucroy is also available, but he is not the same player he was during his Brewers days. Lucroy has been a replacement level player the last three years. At 33, it is unlikely he will ever return to his previous All-Star form.
Besides Martin and Lucroy, all that remains in free agency is a myriad of fringe major-leaguers, including, but not limited to: Josh Phegley, John Ryan Murphy, Caleb Joseph, Kevan Smith, Matt Wieters and Chris Iannetta. None of those catchers represent a clear upgrade over Stallings or Maile.
In the trade market, it does not appear any teams are dangling a legitimate major-league catcher. The Pirates still have Starling Marte on the block, and the Padres and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in him. Both clubs have minor-league catchers who are among the top 100 prospects in the game. On top of that, both teams already have a young, good catcher in the majors, so they may be willing to part with their prospects.
The Padres have Luis Campusano, ranked as the 86th best prospect per MLB Pipeline. The 21-year-old is graded as an average glove with a strong arm, a good eye and raw power. The Diamondbacks have Daulton Varsho, MLB Pipeline's 100th best prospect. The 23-year-old is regarded as a competent fielder and a good hitter, and he runs well for a catcher.
But even if such a deal was to transpire, neither would likely contribute to the major league team in 2020. Varsho played all of 2019 in Double-A, and Campusano spent the season at the High-A level. Both appear to be at least one year away from being regular major league contributors.
So that leaves Stallings and Maile. Of the two, Stallings would almost assuredly be the starter. They are each regarded as good defensive catchers, with Stallings in particular being valued as one of the best in baseball in framing and blocking pitches. However, they both struggle as hitters, with Maile coming off an ugly season where he hit .151 with a .440 OPS over 129 PAs.
GM Ben Cherington has stated he was looking for good defensive catchers who could help manage the staff first. Offensive contributions are secondary. In a December Mound Visit, it was found team catcher defense more closely correlates with success than team catcher offense. The Pirates added Glenn Sherlock as a major league coach to work with the catchers, signaling they are comfortable developing backstops.
While going with two unproven, glove-first catchers may be a risky proposal, the tandem is viewed favorably by Steamer, FanGraphs' preferred prediction tool. Steamer projects the Pirates to get 2.4 WAR from their catchers in 2020, the 14th best team total in their league wide prognostications. That would be a noticeable increase from the -0.4 WAR they got from the position last season. The Pirates struggled behind the plate last year because they lost Francisco Cervelli to a concussion for most of the season and Elias Diaz floundered as a hitter and a fielder, posting -1.5 WAR by himself.
However, Steamer projects Stallings to get 384 plate appearances in 2020, more than he has ever received in any season in professional baseball. Stallings was placed on the injured list last April with a cervical neck strain and was limited in September due to a back pain. Staying healthy and taking on a starter's workload may be the biggest obstacle he will face.
