All eyes will be on Devlin Hodges as he makes his sixth NFL start against the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday. But after throwing six interceptions in a span of six quarters split between his starts against the Bills and Jets, there are lots of questions as to whether he's ready to start again.
Hodges has shown his willingness to make gutsy throws, but he lacks the arm strength to capitalize on those moments with higher velocity passes that give the defense less time to make a play. Add that to his inexperience as an undrafted rookie and you have several problems to plan around for Randy Fichtner.
There's always a challenge for a quarterback to establish a balance between when he can be conservative and when to take his shots. Some gunslinger quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger can lean more to being aggressive, but Hodges should lean to a very conservative approach in this start.
Let's take a closer look at what that means:
I've written about how Fichtner has drawn up plenty of plays for Hodges and Rudolph to stick to their primary reads for easier throws that still move the ball. Watch how this look is designed for Nick Vannett to be wide open on a crossing route.
Hodges runs play action to James Conner, freezing the Jets' linebackers on the running lanes. Vannett starts the play by blocking but breaks across the field. It gives Hodges an easy read and he completes it for a first down:
But after so many conservative underneath passes, defenses will adjust to take those primary reads away. When you're a quarterback like Hodges, you have to not let that force your hand into unfavorable situations. There will be prime opportunities for shot plays to break open the offense with big plays, but finding the balance between staying conservative and taking those shots is the challenge.
Hodges thought he would have Jaylen Samuels on a deep corner route with the safety moving to the middle of the field. But with Cover 1 man, Diontae Johnson was wide open on a drag route across the field and JuJu Smith-Schuster was even more open in the right flat. He might've scored if the ball came out on time:
Hodges' deep shots continue to be a point of struggle. He lacks the arm strength to make them accurate strikes without putting enough air on the ball for safeties to react.
A clear difference in arm talent could be seen when Rudolph made his return. Watch how the safety leaves Johnson in single coverage. As soon as Rudolph sees the chance, he fires a strike that quickly gets to the back pylon and Johnson has an easy touchdown:
It's not farfetched to argue that Rudolph could've won the game for the Steelers had he avoided injury. He was putting together a solid day.
But with Hodges, Fichtner must keep the plan conservative so he avoids giveaways. There will be times for shot plays, but they should be limited to when the Ravens commit to defenses that give obvious one-on-one opportunities. The fourth quarter throw to James Washington was out of desperation, but it was a good showing of when those shot plays should be taken.
Notice how Hodges waits until Washington clears the middle of the field so that he can clearly see it's single coverage. Marcus Maye makes a great play on the ball to save the touchdown, but this is the idea of the shot play the Steelers may need to hit to win on Sunday:
Finding such a balance is difficult, even for franchise quarterbacks. When a quarterback achieves that balance it seems like a natural rhythm in the offense that can often be taken for granted. But when it's absent it can feel like it might be impossible to achieve or require a lucky spark to ignite the chemistry.
For a quarterback as limiting as Hodges, that challenge is even more difficult for an offense. But he needs to stick to being satisfied with underneath looks until Fichtner gives him the green light on a shot play and it's an obvious one-on-one situation.
MORE CLASSROOM
Dec. 26: JuJu's work in progress
Dec. 24: Defense just needs a lead
Dec. 23: Line grows among concerns
Dec. 21: Better plans for O-line
