The Pirates' leadership overhaul is nearly complete. Frank Coonelly, Neal Huntington and Clint Hurdle have been deposed and replaced with Travis Williams, Ben Cherington and... someone else. We'll probably find out who very soon. It is a new era for the Pirates, and while it is not official, some selling of players from the old era is expected.
One of the Pirates' most appealing trade chips is Starling Marte. If the Pirates are approaching the end of the road with him, let's take a moment to appreciate the ride. Marte's 16.6 wins above average are 14th best among position players in Pirates history, sandwiched between Andy Van Slyke and Jason Kendall. He was an All-Star, and probably should have gone to the midsummer classic two or three more times than he actually did. He won Gold Gloves, stole bases and was a threat in the batter's box. With the exception of Andrew McCutchen, he has been the best Pirates player of the last 15 years.
The Pirates picked up his 2020 club option earlier in November and they have another one for the 2021 season. That means they do not have to trade him this offseason, but his value will never be this high again. Cherington was hired in large part because of his player development track record. Why not give him as much young talent as possible to work with?
This is also an incredibly thin market for center fielders. There are currently eight free agents who qualify as center fielders. Five had a negative WAR last year. One, Austin Jackson, did not play in the majors in 2019. Jarrod Dyson, 35, is considered the top target after being worth 1.3 WAR last year. Marte is the best option potentially available, and it's not even close.
So if the Pirates do go forward and try to trade Marte, what could they expect back? Will they get a top 100 prospect or two who can help replenish the farm, or did they wait too long to move him?
We will be using surplus value to determine Marte's trade stock and prospect future value to rate the minor league return the Pirates would get back. If you are familiar with the 20-80 scouting scale, surplus value and FanGraphs' prospect valuation, you can skip the next chunk of this Mound Visit if you want. If you are not, here is a crash course.
First, surplus value. Every major league player has value: WAR. Wins above replacement. While not perfect, it is the best way to see how they compare to other players around the league, regardless of position or team. It also has monetary value. According to FanGraphs, 1 WAR is worth $9 million on the open market. To calculate surplus value, you multiply a player's WAR by $9 million and subtract their salary from it.
Here's an example. Player A is a 5 WAR player who makes $30 million per season. Meanwhile, Player B is a 2.5 WAR player who makes $2.5 million per season. Player A's total value is $45 million, and after subtracting his salary, that means he has a surplus value of $15 million. Player B's total value is $22.5 million, and after subtracting his salary, he has a surplus value of $20 million. That means Player B is actually more valuable in a trade, even though Player A is the far better player. If either player had multiple years of control, those values would be added together. The contract is an important factor.
Next, future value: A prospect's projected future surplus value based on how they are graded. This is modeled after examining how similarly valued prospects traditionally fare in the major leagues and how much WAR they accumulate. To read how much top prospects are usually worth, click here. For lower level prospects, click here.
Prospects are grouped by their grade on the 20-80 scale, which is how scouts rate players and their individual pitches and tools. The higher the number, the more promising the player. Different outlets will grade prospects differently, so I will use FanGraphs' scale and ratings since it's their formula for prospect value.
This is a bit of an oversimplification, but in general, this is what a typical player looks like based on their grade:
20- Will be out of baseball soon.
30- Organizational player to fill out minor league rosters.
35- Emergency call-up.
40- Bench player, relief pitcher.
45- Platoon player or an irregular starter, backend of the rotation starter, set-up man.
50- Average regular player, middle of the rotation starter, closer.
55- Consistently above average player, number two starter.
60- Consistent impact player.
65- All-Star, ace pitcher.
70- MVP or Cy Young candidate.
80- Mike Trout.
Obviously this is not set in stone. There are 60 grade prospects who never reached the majors and 40 grade guys who became All-Stars. A player's value can fluctuate over time. Tyler Glasnow was once considered a 55 or 60 grade prospect. When he was traded, many had him pegged as a 40+ or 45. Now FanGraphs has him at 55 again. He is an extreme example of how a player's value can change, but it shows how the Pirates, scouts and the rest of the league viewed him at different points in his career.
With all that out of the way, it's time to finally answer the question the headline asks: What is Marte's trade value? Well, it is going to depend on what teams think he can do the next two seasons. Steamer currently projects him to be worth 2.8 WAR in 2020. Factoring in a half-win drop for his age 32 season, that would give him 2.3 WAR in 2021 and 5.1 in total. That means the value of his WAR would be about $46 million normally on the open market. Marte will make $11.5 million in 2020 and $12.5 million in 2021. This means his surplus value would be about $22 million.
So what does $22 million get you in terms of prospects? FanGraphs' prospect value model projects hitters they grade at 50 to be worth $28 million in surplus value and their 50-grade pitchers to be worth $21 million. For the laymen, that is usually a minor leaguer in the 75-100 range of any given top 100 prospects list, maybe a little higher for the pitchers. Getting the hitter would take a little bit of shrewd selling, but perhaps the lack of quality alternatives on the market will create the extra demand. If they opt for a pitcher, they could get a party favor or two to even out the deal.
Let's have some fun and make a couple theoretical trades. The Mets are known to be interested, and they have a pair of 50-grade infielders in their farm system. The two teams settle on Andres Gimenez, a 21 year old double-A shortstop with potential to be a plus hitter and fielder, but still needs to figure some things out. FanGraphs ranks him as the 76th best prospect in baseball. MLB Pipeline says 92nd.
The Phillies could also be interested in a trade. The headliner of this deal is right-hander Spencer Howard, a 23 year old right-hander with some inconsistent mechanics and control issues, but frontline starter stuff. He is a 50 grade pitcher, and is ranked as the 56th best prospect by FanGraphs and 88th by MLB Pipeline. Now since pitchers are riskier and therefore valued a little less, the Pirates get a second, lesser player in this deal. They choose Damon Jones, a 40 grade lefty who barely made a pit stop in double-A before going to triple-A last season.
So would a Marte trade totally restock the farm system? No, but it could bring back a legitimate headliner prospect and perhaps a lottery ticket or two. If the Pirates are going to rebuild, they'll need those types of players. They should only trade Marte if they get a good return package, but with the value he brings and the non-existent center field market, that should not be too difficult.
If you would like to examine each team's prospects, FanGraphs' prospect board has the largest collection of free, quality scouting reports around.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Nov. 22: Examining Cherington's first foray
Nov. 16: Cherington's analytical muddle
Nov. 12: Three undervalued starting pitchers
