Identification. Acquisition. Development. Deployment.
Get used to those four words. They are the four pillars to player development, according to Ben Cherington. He stressed them throughout his introduction as the team's new general manager Monday, and I have a feeling we're going to hear it a lot more in the future, especially if the Pirates embark on a rebuild. So get ready for some I.A.D.D..
Today, we will be focusing on identification of talent. While that could mean free agents and trade targets, it is just as important to evaluate the talent within the system. Cherington recognizes this.
"That identification has to exist for our own players as much as it does for someone else’s. It’s the same process," Cherington said in our sitdown with him and Pirates brass Monday.
On Wednesday, we got our first example of Cherington identifying the talent he inherited from Neal Huntington. The Pirates added five players to their 40-man roster and designated four others for assignment ahead of the Rule 5 deadline. Most of the moves were not too surprising. Of course Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz would be added, and Blake Cederlind is a young fireballer who had Rule 5 project written all over him if he wasn't protected. Will Craig is a former first round pick with a good glove at first base and untapped raw power.
Meanwhile, Luis Escobar was removed from the 40-man. A bit surprising since he is still considered a decent prospect, but there is a better chance of keeping him through the draft than Cederlind. Montana DuRapau, a 27 year old fringe reliever, and Williams Jerez, a September waiver claim, were also DFA'd. Neither came as a shock.
But there were some decisions that definitely went against the grain of how the previous regime operated. We will focus on four pitchers who were involved in Wednesday's roster moves and tie in with the theme of identification of talent. One pitcher was removed from the roster. Another was added. One was left off the 40-man even though many think he should be on it, and another was surprisingly not released. In order, they are: Dario Agrazal, Cody Ponce, James Marvel and Dovydas Neverauskas.
We will start with the most notable of the DFAs, Agrazal. I could go into a deep dive into Agrazal's stuff and how it plays at the major league level, but I'd just be parroting what Jason Rollison wrote in July. Go read that instead. Jason asked if Agrazal could stick in the majors, and he wasn't particularly optimistic. Toward the end he wrote: "All would do well to lower their expectations just a bit." Agrazal recorded a 6.55 ERA for the Pirates from the publication of that post through the end of the season. A point to Jason for calling that one.
Marvel was outrighted off the roster in early November, but Cherington had a chance to protect him from the draft. He opted not to. Again, I could do a deep dive about Marvel, but I'd just be hitting the same notes as Jason's Agrazal piece. Low-90s fastball, middling breaking ball. He's a true student of the game and the Pirates' 2019 minor league pitcher of the year, but no matter how you slice it, he is not a legitimate prospect at the moment.
The perception is the Pirates need pitching, which they do, but what they truly need is high-upside pitching. Mitch Keller, Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer and Trevor Williams can make up the top four of the rotation, and it could even be a good top four with the right coaching ideology (i.e. deployment). As for the fifth starter, there is Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl and J.T. Brubaker, not to mention the free agent market. They have depth in quantity, but not depth in quality.
Agrazal and Marvel are both low ceiling players. Agrazal has good composure on the mound and Marvel's game-planning is top notch, which are great intangibles to have, but their tangibles are lacking. They won't get whiffs. Both of them rely on a sinker, a pitch that is out of fashion across the league. Barring a league wide paradigm shift, it's hard to see them succeeding in the majors long term with that pitch. All told, they weren't deemed worthy of roster spots.
Now for the pitchers who are on the roster. Huntington probably would have added Ponce to the 40-man too, but for different reasons. He was the only player the Pirates got back at the trade deadline. He's a tall right-hander who gets ground balls. He was a spitting image of the type of pitchers the Pirates gravitated to for years.
But he doesn't have to be. Ponce has a really good cutter. He can miss bats with it. It might end up being the only major league quality pitch in his repertoire, but it is good enough to get him to the majors. The Brewers saw his one good pitch and converted him to a reliever, where he had success in Double-A. The Pirates gave him another chance as a starter after they traded for him. He did not do well, but he was changing organizations and levels while also starting for the first time all season. They put him in a bad situation.
Still, Ponce projects to be another Agrazal/Marvel level starter, but could be a good reliever. Which path is better? Where can he grow as a pitcher? The identification and acquisition are done. Now comes development and deployment.
And finally, Neverauskas. I can't believe he's getting a Mound Visit. He was once considered one of the Pirates best pitching prospects a few years ago, and after a serviceable rookie season, he was crushed in 2018 and 2019. The Pirates did not even bother to call him up in September, even though he was already on the roster and they were desperately looking for pitching.
Neverauskas, despite all of his faults at the major league level, is a Statcast darling. He has a rare combination of elite velocity and spin on his breaking ball. Last year, he was one of just 12 relievers to average at least 95 mph on their fastball and 2,900 rpm on a breaking pitch.
This list has a couple rookies and lesser known pitchers, and not all of them are good. But it also has Ryan Pressly and Kyle Crick at the top. Everyone is looking for velocity and spin. To get both in the same package is special. Is he really worth one final, "we really mean it this time," look? Maybe.
This 40-man roster is not going to stay static the entire offseason. It's possible Neverauskas could be DFA'd for a waiver claim or free agent, but even if that happens, it's telling he survived Cherington's first roster cull. He identified talent. Can they finally tap into it at the major league level? Neverauskas could be an early test for the new coaching and player development staffs.
In the end, the Pirates chose two high ceiling, low floor pitchers rather than two low ceiling, high floor arms. That may or may not be the right choice, but it certainly is different than what Huntington did, especially in his final seasons. Lest we forget, Huntington kept going back to the safe, reliable and unspectacular Ivan Nova instead of giving starts to Tyler Glasnow in 2018. How did that work out? In his first decision as GM, Cherington gave an indication of how he values players differently than Huntington. Not necessarily better or worse, but different. Now come the other three pillars.
Data courtesy of Baseball Savant.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Nov. 16: Cherington's analytical muddle
Nov. 12: Three undervalued starting pitchers
