When it comes to evaluating a young quarterback, context is everything. And frankly, the context for Mason Rudolph in 2019 has been lousy.
During what amounts to an extended audition to be Ben Roethlisberger's successor, Rudolph hasn't had much support. The offensive line that shielded Roethlisberger so well and extended his career has declined, leaving Rudolph to deal with a collapsed pocket. He suffered a concussion. The skill position players have suffered myriad injuries--to the extent that the second-year passer's top options late in the Browns game were James Washington, a creaky Vance McDonald and a still-mending Jaylen Samuels. Rudolph hit rock bottom in Cleveland, throwing four picks and posting the worst single-game passer rating (36.3) for a Steelers quarterback with 25+ attempts since 2006.
He was having a bad night, even before Myles Garrett did something to him that would have landed Garrett in jail in any other workplace:
Rudolph's performance has to be viewed through the context of the chaos that surrounds him. But what insights can we really glean from the former Oklahoma State star's first half-season as a starting QB?
Let's take a closer look by fact-checking three common criticisms of Rudolph:
1, He's indecisive in the pocket and takes too long to throw the ball.
Rudolph does take more time to make a decision than most QBs. His average time to throw in 2019 is 2.83 seconds, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That is the ninth-longest average time to throw among 38 quarterbacks who have thrown 80+ passes this season.
Before the Cleveland game, though, that hadn't burned the Steelers too badly in terms of sacks allowed. And even with the Browns debacle, Rudolph's sack rate (5 percent of pass attempts) is below the 6.9 percent NFL average. So here again, you have to consider the context: Is Rudolph not reading coverage and finding the open man fast enough? Or are his receivers not getting open? Either way, Cleveland showed what can happen when elite pass rushers confront a QB who holds on to the ball for a long time.
2. He can't throw the deep ball.
Rudolph routinely took deep shots in college, but there's no doubt he has rarely thrown bombs this season. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, 27 percent of Rudolph's throws have been behind the line of scrimmage. Thirty-nine percent of his throws have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, 21.6 percent have been between 10-20 yards past the line of scrimmage, and just 12.4 percent have been 20-plus yards past the line.
And when Rudolph has gone deep, the results have been ugly:
On throws that are 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage, Rudolph has a 40.2 percent completion rate and a 5-to-7 TD to INT ratio. That's lousy. He has the second-fewest air yards on completed passes (4.3 on average) among all qualified QBs. Whether it's Rudolph, the game plan, a lack of deep threats at wide out or some combination thereof, he has been subpar on the rare occasions when he airs it out.
3. He's not an accurate passer.
When Rudolph has enjoyed a clean pocket, there have been times when he throws perfect darts. But when pressured, he has missed the mark at times. Overall, he has a 62.3 percent completion rate this year. That's below his 63 percent expected completion rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Expected completion rate is based on the difficult of a passer's throws and factors in variables like length of the throw, the intended receiver's separation from the nearest defenders, and game situation (down and distance). So, you can make the case that Rudolph has been slightly less accurate than the average QB when you take into account the difficulty of his throws.
When you look at the big picture with Rudolph, you get an average to below-average QB who has looked especially bad at times because of the dumpster fire of an offense that surrounds him. In any context, though, it's hard to say that Rudolph has proven that he deserves to be the Steelers QB when Ben calls it quits, or his body decides for him.
MORE STEELERS
• Watt for DPOY? It has become routine to see a Watt in the discussion for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. But this season, it's T.J. Watt who's taking up the mantle for his injured pass-rushing brother. Watt ranks first in the NFL in QB hits (24), second in forced fumbles (four), third in sacks (10.5), fourth in QB hurries (15) and 13th in tackles for loss (nine). He also has an interception during his dominant 2019 campaign. The last Steelers linebacker to win defensive DPOY was James Harrison back in 2008. Watt is on pace to notch one more sack than Harrison did when winning that hardware (17 to 16), which would give him the new single-season high for a Steeler since that became an official stat in 1982. Watt already has more QB hits than Harrison had, too(19). It has been a long time since we've seen a linebacker like Watt.
• Playoffs? Playoffs?! Just how badly did the Steelers' loss to the Browns dent their playoff odds? According to Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh entered the week with a 52 percent chance of returning to the postseason after missing out last year. After their Week 11 egg laying, their odds are down to 28 percent. You can forget about winning the AFC North (one percent), but a wild card is at least considered semi-attainable (27 percent). Of course, those odds look even more bleak if hoped-for offensive cornerstones like James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster aren't healthy.
