Even if the Steelers do achieve all the different keys to the game we've discussed this week, none of them will matter if Ben Roethlisberger has a bad game. He's had some big plays against the Patriots over the years, but several big mistakes have hurt his team.
Bill Belichick is one of the greatest defensive minds in the history of football and has fooled Roethlisberger with disguised coverage several times over the years. But recent seasons have seen Roethlisberger not so easily duped. His last obstacle against Belichick is improving his accuracy to avoid interceptions.
Let's look at that progress and where Ben can still improve:
One of Roethlisberger's biggest issues in the past was getting fooled by the Patriots' different cover looks. This often led to him throwing passes that were intercepted in situations where he should have checked out of the throw.
In fact, Roethlisberger hasn't played an interception-free game against the Patriots since 2007. Let's look back at one interception from the season opener in 2016. Roethlisberger sees Cover 2 alignment with the safeties and that Devin McCourty comes up from being the safety on Darrius Heyward-Bey's side. That leads Roethlisberger to believe he has a one-on-one shot with a fast receiver.
But Duron Harmon rotates from the other side of the field to be the extra safety and intercepts the pass:
Harmon has been Roethlisberger's achilles heel over the years, much like Reggie Nelson was with the Bengals against the Steelers' quarterback. Over six career games against Roethlisberger, Harmon has five interceptions. Three of those came over the past two games, one being the game-losing interception in 2017 and two coming in the 2018 game.
But there's been a stark difference in the type of interceptions Roethlisberger has thrown the past two seasons while in Randy Fichtner's offense. His decisions have been less of the problem. Instead, it has the Patriots taking advantage of misfires into tight passing windows.
Let's look back at both of his interceptions to Harmon last season. Roethlisberger sees JuJu-Smith Schuster in single coverage against a Cover 1 scheme and tries to fit the ball over the cornerback. The pass is high and Harmon gets the interception:
Harmon's other interception came off a tipped pass from Stephon Gilmore. Antonio Brown had broken free and was open, but Roethlisberger led the ball right to Gilmore, who had held up Eli Rogers and blocked off Brown's route. The ball is tipped and Harmon gets the pick:
This is what Roethlisberger has to avoid. It's not about always avoiding tight passing windows because there will be times you have to take on that challenge. But when those moments come, Roethlisberger has to be at his sharpest.
He's had those moments, especially in the past two seasons against the Patriots. Let's look back at what might've been his most impressive throw in those games on a touchdown to Rogers back in 2017. Roethlisberger sees the Patriots show a Cover 2 defense with a very wide split between them.
So when Rogers gets just the slightest inside leverage against Eric Rowe, Roethlisberger knows there's no safety who can help if the catch is made. He delivers the perfect throw and Rogers scores:
Roethlisberger doesn't need to have a 400-yard passing game with five touchdowns on Sunday for the Steelers to win. He just needs an efficient game. That means taking advantage of opportunities and increasing the Steelers' percentage of successful drives rather than sheer volume.
If he keeps his interceptions down, that takes away an advantage the Patriots have banked on in their 8-4 record against Roethlisberger over the years. Watch closely Sunday night how Roethlisberger reads the field and where his targets are going. It will be more important about where he's throwing than who he's throwing to in the biggest moments.
That's all part of what's made the Patriots' defense so successful over the years.
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