Mound Visit: Frazier has fooled us again ... maybe ☕

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Adam Frazier is doing it again.

As the 2019 Pirates season winds down with a slate of meaningless games, Frazier is once again giving fans serious pause in discarding his candidacy for an everyday position in 2020.

A funny thing happened on the way to a 2020 Kevin Newman-Cole Tucker keystone combination in the middle of the infield. Over his past 217 plate appearances -- or, the entirety of July 1st through today -- Frazier has slashed .318/.375/.510 with 24 extra base hits. Across that same time, he has struck out at a cool 11 percent rate while walking 6.9 percent of the time. His .885 OPS over those two months and change would represent the absolute zenith of any stretch in his career.

But we've seen this before. I've written about his lack of production before. In that piece, I noted that Frazier has a reputation for late-season strides that bolster his claim to an opening day 25-man roster spot. That's exactly how the story unfolded in 2018, and it's happening again, right now.

Is he fooling us again or have there been tangible changes to unlock this newfound output?

Well, he's not doing it through any drastic change in batted ball quality.

Click/Tap to enlarge

Aside from a modest gain in expected wOBA, Frazier's "improvement" at the plate is not coming from consistent quality of contact. We already know he carries a very patient profile at the plate, but when he does decide to put bat to ball, the results are such -- even in the middle of a steamy stretch -- that the peripherals suggest Frazier is actually hitting the ball in a worse manner than he had been.

These peripherals are certainly not everything, but please allow me just one last batted-ball statistic.

Frazier carries a 95.7 mph average exit velocity combined on all of those 24 extra base hits. That figure slaps on him a rank of 221st out of 248 hitters with at least 10 batted balls during this span. The overall combined league rate with these parameters is 99.7 mph. Surely, a 4-mph difference can't mean too much. Except that it certainly can. That extra 4 mph can make all the difference in not only putting a ball over the fence, but it can also help the ball find a gap before an outfielder closes it off.

There has to be some magic in Frazier's ballcap somewhere for the output listed above. Let's look at his approach at the plate.

First, we will look at plain old swing rates by zone. This simply means the percentage of times that Frazier would offer at a pitch.

Here's that look prior to July:

Click/Tap to enlarge

And now, July 1st through Sept. 4:

Click/Tap to enlarge

Aside from Frazier actually swinging less at some juicy pitches, let's take a look at a few areas he has offered at with a greater rate — the outer-third to middle of the strike zone, and down and in on the bottom third.

First, let's take a look at this home run from a hanging sinker on the outer third of the plate:

Here, Frazier is able to go out and put a hurt on this ball, 102.2 mph worth. What I especially like about this particular home run is that Frazier did not lunge for it. He kept his stance throughout and had great follow-through:

Now, let's look at a pitch in the same spot of the strike zone from before July:

And let's look at his extension on that lineout:

There's a lot of unnatural looking extension there, resulting in a predictable outcome.

In an effort to disavow "cherry picking" these videos to prove my example, I'll offer this. In this particular area of the zone, Frazier had an average exit velocity of  93.3 mph before July, and a 93.5 mark since. Hard to dispute that he is getting more out of these pitches when the EV is practically the same.

Now, let's look at that down-and-in stuff.

This double came off the bat at a humble 88.8 mph, looking for a home. It found one in the corner. Once again, Frazier's positioning at the plate and follow through with the bat allow for the pitch to do so:

Looking good. Let's check how things looked chasing those down-and-in balls before he started his latest magic trick:

There is nothing inherently wrong with Frazier going after this pitch. It was an 89.5-mph two-seam fastball from Kenta Maeda that was made to be more than it was due to Maeda playing with timing. Let's dig in further.

This one is subtle, but notice how Frazier's back shoulder is a little more dipped back in this frame. In the frame above, Frazier's back shoulder is a bit more connected with his load as the bat comes to zone, resulting in a little more drive. Indeed, Frazier does see an increased exit velocity on down-and-in pitches since he turned it on: 88.9 mph as opposed to 83.3 previously.

But, what does it all mean? Especially as it relates to the very premise of this entire piece? Is Frazier fooling us once again that he can consistently be something that he hasn't been to this point? Namely, a solid bat with extra base hit ability?

He has fooled you again. The parameters may be different than they were in 2018, but Frazier is riding another hot streak to win over the hearts and minds of the PBC to keep things status quo for 2020, penciling him in as the everyday second-baseman.

But is that a bad thing, necessarily? If Frazier can perhaps be labeled as a gap-hitter who can give you 30 doubles per season with a patient bat and adequate defense, should it matter which road he takes to get there? Of course, any team should demand a certain level of consistency rather than waiting on a hot streak to squeeze a season's worth of solid production into a couple of months.

But if there are other, more dynamic players who need to settle into a spot to get their careers going, Adam Frazier might be the odd man out.

How many rabbits have to come out of his hat, though, for that to happen?

MORE MOUND VISIT

Sept. 4:  Hitters attack zone

Aug. 26: Moran’s modest gains

Aug. 23: Pitcher auditions

Aug. 21: Hitter auditions