Every year, many fans and analysts seem to ask the same existential question: Is Kris Letang just too reckless?
Despite Letang coming off a mostly brilliant 2018-19 campaign — one in which he posted 0.86 points per game (fifth among all NHL defensemen who played 40+ games) and helped the Penguins generate 6.8 percent more shots at even strength when he skated compared to when he was off the ice (second among blueliners) — the question remains. Letang has undoubtedly had some high-profile missteps in the playoffs and does occasionally try to play the hero, but he’s not really all that much more turnover-prone than most defensemen. Last year, Letang committed 2.2 turnovers per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick. That was only the fifth-highest giveaway rate among Penguins defensemen, and it ranked 100th-highest among 209 NHL defensemen who skated 500+ minutes in five-on-five play. His playoff mistakes have been magnified, but Letang might not be as reckless a player as you think. And on the whole, he remains one of the best in the game.
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• Quality netminding: The Penguins enter 2019-20 with two goalies who are coming off high-caliber campaigns — Matt Murray and Casey DeSmith. And while some are anxious about trying to pass Tristan Jarry through waivers and have floated the idea of shopping DeSmith, that looks dicey to me. You want a strong backup, given Murray’s injury history and the grueling nature of the NHL season, and DeSmith earned his keep in 30 starts last season. DeSmith had an expected save percentage of .919 during five-on-five play, according to Corsica Hockey. Expected save rate is based on the quality of scoring chances that a goalie must combat — things like shot location, shot type and odd-man rush situations. DeSmith’s actual save rate during five-on-five play was .929. So, DeSmith stopped more shots than expected based on the caliber of chances he faced. His five-on-five save rate tied for 12th among all goalies with 1,500+ minutes in such situations. Considering that strong work, DeSmith’s reasonable contract ($1.25 million annually through 2021-22) and Murray’s injuries, do you really want to give 20-30 starts to Jarry?
• Dirty work: At 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds, newly acquired winger Dominik Kahun isn’t a big guy. But he’s not afraid to park himself in front of the net and take the requisite punishment that entails. About 47 percent of Kahun’s shots came either within the goal crease (20 percent) or in the area directly in front of the crease (27 percent), according to the Icy Data website. The NHL average is about 12 percent of shots within the crease, and 22 percent of shots directly in front of the crease (34 percent total in those areas). Eighty-four percent of Kahun’s goals came in those two down-low areas, compared to the 61 percent league average. If Kahun manages to get top-line minutes, he could get some of the brilliant passes and juicy rebounds close to the net that Sidney Crosby so often generates.
