STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- On the surface, Colin Moran has had a solid-enough 2019 season. And even with a month or so to go, a quick look at some basic figures shows that he has put in a season's worth of work that is already marginally better than 2018:
Click/tap to enlargeWhile Moran's increase in power -- in fewer plate appearances -- is a welcome sight, he still hasn't quite attained the status of an impact talent, and if we dig into the stimuli behind these gains, we quickly find them to be underwhelming at best.
MORE SWINGS, MORE MISS
The eye is drawn to Moran's strikeout percentage. Having jumped nearly six full percentage points at this juncture, it's entirely worth asking what has changed with Moran, and are the modestly improved power numbers worth it?
Moran is more aggressive this season, with a swing rate on all pitches of 53.8 percent, up from 49.9 percent in 2018. But if we break that down by pitches, a different story is told:
Click/Tap to enlargeThough his overall fastballs seen this season has risen from 56.6 percent in 2018 to 59.9 percent in 2019 -- look at that, another modest gain -- his in-zone fastball rates are down to 51.1 percent from 53.9 percent in 2019.
Moran's approach shies away from the classic, tried and true "hunting fastballs" approach, and that's likely to be explained away as his inability to force pitchers into giving him one.
After first pitch that is.
Moran swings more than any other Pirates hitter at first pitch. His swing rate of 41.9 percent at a pitcher's first offering is a sizable leap from the current 28.2 percent MLB rate.
The thing is, Moran is right to swing away on first pitch. He sees mostly fastballs there -- nearly a third of his first pitches are fastballs -- and his 0-0 slashline of .435/.443/.681 is an attractive one. But, in 2019 at least, his new free-swinging approach is costing him later in the at-bat:
STRIKEOUT RATES
2019:
After 1-0: 26.7 percent
After 0-1:- 33.8 percent
2018:
After 1-0: 21.1 percent
After 0-1: 23.9 percent
Moran still sees a fair share of fastballs after first pitch, but sees 40.8 percent breaking/offspeed pitches at every other count.
Here's a few overall stats on those non-fastball offerings:
Breaking: 29.1 percent whiff per swing /.216 batting average
Offspeed: 23.2 percent whiff per swing /.333 batting average, but if we limit our look to non-first pitch changeups, we see a .234 batting average.
All of these figures may just jibe with his overall approach, but the crux of this column is to ask: Is it really worth it for Moran to swing as much as he has been doing?
If you were to read no other words but the top chart above, you might be tempted to answer yes. I did too, at first. But the truth comes crashing down under the spotlight of consistency.
If we use wOBA and wRC+ -- weighted on base average and weighted runs created plus -- in a rolling graph, we see that Moran has trouble staying above an "average hitter level." That being, someone with a wOBA of at least .318 and a wRC+ of at least 100.
Click/Tap to enlargeMoran's wRC+ was rated at 94 before he went down to get that low breaking ball when pinch hitting against the Reds on Saturday. It was an impressive blast, so let's give Redbeard his due and look at it once again:
The grand slams are nice. The incremental improvements seen in Colin Moran this season are welcome. But until he can establish a baseline of consistency expected in an average MLB hitter, the new façade is not going to amount to very much.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Aug. 23: Pitcher auditions
Aug. 21: Hitter auditions
Aug 19: Reynolds walks this way
Aug 15: Stratton the spin doc
