STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- With Jameson Taillon's 2020 status far from certain, the Pirates' starting rotation next season and beyond is littered with question marks.
Which makes the rest of this season the perfect time for Chris Archer to get himself back on solid footing. To get there, he'll have to scratch a few items off his to-do list.
Or, perhaps, just one in particular.
SET UP FOR SUCCESS
So much has been made out of Archer's pitch selection, including from yours truly. Now having banished the sinker back from the fresh hell it came from, Archer is back to a mix he is familiar with. Here's how his pitch selection has looked this season:
Courtesy of Brooks BaseballHowever, in Archer's case, it's not just what he throws that needed tweaking, when he throws it is still an issue. Let's look at a fun viz on what Archer throws, and when, combined with the results:
Now, this viz from Statcast is cool to look at and all, but the main takeaway is that Archer is throwing his sub-par four-seam fastball very early in the count. If we take a look at just the first pitch, at 0-0 counts, we see some disturbing figures.
On first pitches only, Archer ranks fifth among qualified Pirates starting pitchers in terms of swing rate on first pitch at 30.5 percent. Trevor Williams takes top honors here with a 36.8 percent rate.
However, Archer has the dubious honor of having the single highest SLG and wOBA figures among that same group of starters with .867/.500 figures, respectively. If we expand that group to all of MLB's qualified starters, he places as the 17th-highest wOBA and 15th-highest in SLG out of 135 pitchers.
That's ugly. So why is he throwing first-pitch so-so fastballs so much? The answer is outside of my grasp at this point. With the slider easily earning the moniker of his best pitch, why not even out the pitch mix? Perhaps if he threw in some more breakers or even a changeup at first pitch, that swing rate would go down. It stands to reason that if swing rates go down, there are certainly going to be fewer opportunities for damage.
Again, I don't have those answers but I can tell you that as his career winds on, strike one is becoming more important to Archer with each passing season.
Consider this.
Career early count SLG:
After 0-1: .321
After 1-0: .425
Difference: .104
So far, nothing groundbreaking to see here. Those numbers are over his entire career, but what about in 2017, Archer's last All-Star season, in which he posted a 3.49 ERA and struck out 11.1 hitters per nine?
2017 early count SLG:
After 0-1: .330
After 1-0: .478
Difference: .148
It can be reasonably assumed that seeing Archer perform so well in 2017 might have caught Neal Huntington's wandering eye, but there were some signs of slippage to be seen. While the .034 percentage point increase in this admittedly pedantic metric is far from painting a complete picture, it can be considered a red flag. Miniature in stature, sure, but a red flag nonetheless.
For Chris Archer to set this starting rotation up for success in 2020, he'll first have to do that for himself.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Aug 1: Can Osuna's power play?
July 31: Where’s the talent?
July 30: Frankie’s value
July 29: Melky vs Corey
