STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- With Pirates GM Neal Huntington committed to selling on 2019, it's time to gauge what he can expect to get in return for some intriguing rental pieces. Yesterday we took a look at the club's rental bats. We were scheduled to compare rental pitchers today -- namely, Francisco Liriano and Jordan Lyles -- but the club had to go and ruin our fun by trading Lyles to the Brewers.
So, what we'll do today is focus on Liriano's trade value. As before, we'll dissect what he brings to the table, where he's currently at in terms of profile and performance, and also detail what red flags are present for potential buyers.
THE FILTHY ONE
Francisco Liriano's second stint with the Pirates has been a successful one, by and large. Signed to a minor league deal before spring training, the club got a solid bullpen lefty who occasionally taps back into his "Filthy Frankie" days.
The Baseline: If not spectacular, Liriano's peripherals and core stats have been solid. His 3.06 ERA on the season loses a bit of luster when put up next to his 4.51 FIP. He's striking out 21.7 percent of his batters faced, walking 11.8 percent and leaving runners on base at an 81.6 percent clip.
What he brings: That last number bears some further discussion. LOB percentage does not use your standard "men left on base" that you'll see in box scores for any given game. Rather, it's arrived at by a formula that takes hits, walks and runs allowed into consideration. Here's a link to the full definition, but here we'll define it as just that, hitters that a pitcher allows to get on base who are then stranded.
Having said all of that, Liriano's 81.6 percent rate is markedly better than the current MLB-wide rate of 72.6. That'll catch the eye, but so too will his rejuvenated slider. Long considered his best weapon, the pitch was more flop than wipeout over the past few seasons, but has rebounded to the tune of a 41.2-percent whiff rate after two consecutive years with rates in the mid-30s. Hitters aren't punishing the pitch any more — they're slugging just .231 against the pitch, the lowest it's been in years, including a .350 rate in 2018. Oh, by the way, hitters are hitting for an average of just .130 against it.
And this is all happening with Liriano using the pitch at a lesser rate than he has throughout much of his career. His 29.2 percent usage rate this season is 3.4 percent less than the combined rate over the past two seasons, and he has an improved fastball to thank. His four-seamer is getting more chases than it ever has, and both his straight heat and sinker are seeing better batting-average-against numbers than they have in years:
Courtesy of Brooks BaseballThe Red Flags: That strikeout percentage is actually a tick below the MLB-wide rate of 23.6 percent, and that walk rate is a bit inflated over baseball's rate of 9.6 percent. The LOB percentage remains impressive, but if we shift our focus to inherited runners, we see a different story.
Inherited Runners is much simpler to qualify. Simply, it refers to the amount of inherited runners a pitcher has on the bases as he comes into a game. Liriano leads Pirates relievers that carry least 35 innings pitched with 23 inherited runners, and he has allowed the most to score — nine runners in all— for a inherited runners scored rate of 39.1 percent. The league average for this peripheral is currently at 33.4 percent.
Liriano is inducing the most soft contact of his past four seasons at 23.6 percent, but has also seen a fly ball rate of 40.9 percent, a significant swelling over the current MLB-wide reliever rate of 34.7 percent. So far, the flies haven't hurt him with a 10.7 percent HR/FB rate, which is 4 percent better than league average. Still, it's something to ponder.
THE VERDICT
Lyles was the first to go, but in my comparison between he and Liriano, Liriano was the clear winner in terms of value:
Liriano has worked to remake himself as an effective left-handed bullpen option over the past few years. Though his peripherals aren't all at the pinnacle of filth as they once were, he is more than an effective reliever, and the Pirates should catch a fair amount of relative value coming back should they find a buyer.
MORE MOUND VISIT
July 29: Melky vs Corey
July 27: Pirates pitcher home run data
July 22: Can Agrazal stick?
July 19: Bell laying off heat?
