STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Now that Pirates GM Neal Huntington has committed -- in his own way -- to selling on 2019, we can now begin gauging which of his assets can net the most value. Today we'll begin by looking at the two premiere rental hitters at his disposal — Corey Dickerson and Melky Cabrera. Of course, there are others -- Francisco Cervelli and Jung Ho Kang, chiefly -- but, let's be real. The two that can bring the biggest return are who we'll be discussing.
Of course, this assumes that Dickerson is healthy enough to give teams confidence in acquiring him. Our own Dejan Kovacevic reported that Dickerson took indoor batting practice on Saturday, which is a great sign for all involved. For the purposes of this exercise, we'll consider him to be healthy enough for the PBC to confidently dangle him.
So let's get into it.
For each player, we will give you the baseline, what he brings to the table, and what should concern you if you were to find yourself in the shoes of a potential buyer. At the end, we'll draw some conclusions in a head-to-head comparison based on what we discover along the way.
THE GOLD GLOVER
Corey Dickerson has had a vexed 2019. Since missing practically the first two months of the season due to a shoulder injury, Dickerson has been solid at the plate over the subsequent two months, even if the run production hasn't exactly been plentiful.
The Baseline: For the season, Dickerson carries a .303/.365/.500 triple-slash line in 137 plate appearances. He's slugged two home runs and 18 doubles. The 2018 Gold Glove winner has compiled a -4 defensive runs saved rating in left field along with a 0.1 ultimate zone rating.
What he brings: Dickerson is a lifetime .284/.328/.498 hitter who has turned himself from a defensive liability in the American League into a Gold Glove winner. Along the way, his power has softened -- in 2018, his 13 home runs and .175 ISO rating (Isolated power, compiled by subtracting batting average from slugging) were easily the lowest in any season in which he compiled 200 plate appearances or more. Still, he worked to increase his patience last year, lowering his strikeout rate to just 15 percent after three straight years at 23 percent or higher.
Dickerson was never one to draw many walks, but he can be quite productive when keeping the ball off the carpet. Over the last three seasons, the left-handed bat has carried a ground ball rate of 38.8 percent, a good measure below the league rate of 41.9 percent over that same time frame.
The Red Flags: Dickerson's power has been sapped this season, and I'm not just talking about the slugging numbers seen above. Since his return on June 8, Dickerson ranks 25th out of 28 left fielders with at least 50 batted ball events in terms of exit velocity, carrying an 87.4 mph rate. Perhaps this is a bit misleading, as Dickerson carried a very similar rate -- 88.4 mph on average -- last season. Still, teams that are looking for an impact bat at the deadline might not have Dickerson at the top of their lists.
Perhaps those same clubs will also gasp at the drastic change in Dickerson's plate discipline against fastballs. In 2018, he whiffed at 18.4 percent of fastballs seen. In 2019 that rate has ballooned to 29.6 percent. It is certainly plausible, and even probable, that much of this could be attributed to Dickerson gaining his timing back, but a 29.7 percent swing-and-miss rate on heaters in July belies this somewhat. The result is a bevy of pitchers who aren't afraid to challenge him, as he has seen 72.3 percent fastballs in July as opposed to 57.1 percent in the months prior.
Though he has carried close-enough splits against left-handed pitching over his career, 2019 is a different story altogether:
Career vs. RHP: .289/.333/.528
Career vs. LHP: .270/.312/.396
2019 vs. RHP: .317/.376/.538
2019 vs. LHP: .222/.300/.278
Though powering against lefties has always been a problem for him, Dickerson's performance has been dreadful against southpaws this season, though small sample size has to be considered. Dickerson has only 20 plate appearances against them this season.
THE FAN FAVORITE
Pirates fans love them some Melky Cabrera. And why wouldn't they, with both his play and demeanor serving as bright spots in an otherwise dreary season? I also have a personal pet theory as to why he is so popular among the fan base: his contract. Signed before the season on a minor-league deal for $1.15 million, even the slightest bit of production would allow fans to point to his signing as a rare success story in regards to the previous offseason.
The Baseline: Cabrera currently boasts at .304/.341/.439 slash line. He has tabbed six home runs and 15 doubles across 262 PAs. He has logged 135.1 innings in left field and 337 in right. Never known for his defensive wizardy, Cabrera has compiled a -10 DRS rating for the year.
What be brings: In a word: patience. The term "professional hitter" seems to follow Cabrera around at each of his many stops, and rightfully so. For his career, this 34-year-old switch hitter has struck out just 11.8 percent of the time. I continue to be amazed by this statistic. For reference, an "average" hitter should be expected to strike out about 20 percent of the time. Cabrera is nearly 50 percent better than the average in this regard. Again, amazing.
What this does for Cabrera -- aside from prolonging his career -- is to allow his other skills to take over. Cabrera profiles as a line drive hitter, and his cumulative 26.3 percent rate is considerably better than the league's 21.4 percent rate for 2019.
Cabrera is a switch hitter with very unique splits for 2019:
2019 vs. RHP: .324/.370/.458
2019 vs. LHP: .265/.274/.398
Pointing out these splits feels like a natural time to transition to the warts in this game.
The Red Flags: So, yeah, that on base percentage is nearly 100 percentage points less against left-handed pitchers, and this time we can't claim sample size as a factor. Cabrera has had 84 plate appearances against left-handers in 2019. It's not as if he completely flails at southpaw pitching, as he's struck out just seven times against them, while carrying a microscopic 12.7 percent whiff-per-swing rate against them.
From both sides, Cabrera also sees about the same percentage of pitches while behind in the count -- 28.2 percent of his pitches against RHP come from behind compared to 26.9 percent versus lefties. His average exit velocities are close, also, with 89.6 mph of thump versus righties and 88.5 mph of heat against left-handers.
Perhaps the answer lies in his swing rates. In terms of overall swing rate (simply put, the percentage of pitches Cabrera offers at), we see a rate of 52.6 percent against LHP and a 50.4 percent rate when facing RHP. In-zone swing rates tell us a bit more -- 72.6 percent RHP / 68.8 percent LHP -- as do chase swing rates -- 35.3 percent LHP / 32.3 percent RHP.
To me, the extreme splits shown above are a classic case of death by a thousand cuts. All of the above percentages and figures comprise an ecosystem in which Cabrera is clearly more comfortable against right-handed pitchers while batting from the left side. That's great for teams after a left-handed bat off the bench for a platoon, but bad for teams looking for an everyday outfielder.
THE VERDICT
So which hitter carries the most value? Let's put them side by side:
I would normally call this a clean sweep for Dickerson, as beloved as Cabrera may be.
Yet that groin issue is still out there, lurking ... as is the fact that Dickerson's home run power seemingly left him last season at a stage in baseball in which such ability is valued now more than ever. Will those concerns, completely warranted by the way, be enough to scare teams away?
Tough to say.
But for now, even with his health a huge caveat, Corey Dickerson carries the most trade value. While Cabrera's calling-card level patience is supremely impressive, Dickerson can draw more walks while at least carrying the threat of more power. Dickerson gains an edge in the field, even if his numbers this year are less than impressive.
Tomorrow we'll repeat this same exercise, featuring the most notable rental pitcher the Pirates can offer up: Francisco Liriano.
MORE MOUND VISIT
July 27: Pirates pitcher home run data
July 22: Can Agrazal stick?
July 19: Bell laying off heat?
July 18: Relievers struggle at first pitch?
