STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Josh Bell still leads the National League in runs batted in as of this writing with 84. Yet it is hard not to notice that he has looked ... off, since the All-Star break.
And, no, the Home Run Derby is not to blame for altering Bell's swing. That myth has been more or less empirically disproved.
But there has been a sudden and jarring change in Bell's approach.
Let's keep this one simple: Bell is swinging at fewer fastballs. And he is swinging at fewer fastballs that find the zone.
What gives?
We've talked before about how Bell's aggressive approach -- but with selective aggression -- has fueled his success. It's a simple proposition, really. Attack those pitches upon which you can inflict the most damage. So why wander from this plan?
First, let's get the facts on this change:
Josh Bell's fastball dataNow, let's dig a bit deeper into the types of fastballs he's seeing in the zone:
Josh Bell's fastball types seen by monthTheoretically, Bell should be seeing a greater percentage of pitches to drive that land in the zone, as league-wide trends prove out.
So, the question we should probably be asking: Is Bell getting the fastballs where he wants them? I have a chart for that!
Location vs Hard-hit, FastballsSo let's change our thinking a bit. Yes, Bell is seeing more fastballs in the zone by percentage, but they aren't necessarily in what you would call choice areas. Or, at least, areas in which he hits them hard per Statcast.
Have pitchers finally caught up? Well, in a word: Maybe. They are definitely sequencing against him with a greater degree of effectiveness. Before July, pitchers would follow up a fastball with a breaking ball 45.2 percent of the time. Bell whiffed at 16.3 percent of breaking balls overall in June. In July, pitchers now follow fastballs with a breaking ball 51.2 percent of the time, and Bell is whiffing at those breakers at an overall rate of 38.9 percent.
It's clear to me that any perceived "issues" with Bell at this point have more to do with approach than anything mechanical.
Pitchers have adjusted, at least in the small post-All-Star break sample. How quickly can Bell adjust back?
MORE MOUND VISIT
July 18: Relievers struggle at first pitch?
July 17: Who chases best?
July 16: A Marte appreciation post
July 15: Williams’ confounding season
