Josh Bell went down in the first round of the 2019 Home Run Derby, but the Pirates' breakout star is slugging enough during games that count to raise his national profile and threaten records that have stood for more than half a century. Bell is on pace to belt 49 home runs in 2019, which would rank as the third-highest single-season total in Pirates history behind Ralph Kiner in 1949 (54 HR) and 1947 (51). Bell's projected total beats out seasons turned in by Willie Stargell (48 in 1971), Kiner (47 in 1950), Stargell (44 in 1973) and Kiner yet again in 1951 (42) and 1948 (40). Among switch hitters, Bell's projected 49 homers would rank behind only two seasons by Mickey Mantle (54 in 1961 and 52 in 1956). Even in this homer-happy environment, it's not hyperbole to say that Bell is showing Cooperstown-quality power.
In honor of his historic 2019 season, let's break down Bell's 27 bombs.
- Thrown him a fastball at your own peril. Of Bell's 27 home runs, 15 have come against fastballs, seven against breaking balls, and five on offspeed pitches. According to MLB Statcast, only Cody Bellinger (20 HR versus fastballs), Pete Alonso (20), Freddie Freeman (19), Christian Yelich (19), Mike Trout (17), Daniel Vogelbach (17), Hunter Renfroe (17), Eugenio Suarez (17), Franmil Reyes (16), Gary Sanchez (16) and Max Muncy (16) have gone deep more often against the heat (including four-seamers, two-seamers and sinkers). Despite Bell's homer barrage and .700 slugging against fastballs, pitchers have fed him that pitch type 51.7 percent of the time. That's right around the 52.6 percent MLB average, per Fangraphs.
- Bell sees plenty of high-velocity pitches, but he sends them back at pitchers at an even more breakneck speed. Bell's home runs have an average exit velocity of 106.5 mph, which ranks tied for 22nd among MLB hitters with double-digit homer totals in 2019. His fastest homer checked in at 116.2 mph off the bat on May 22 versus a changeup thrown by Colorado's Jon Gray. That's the third-highest exit velocity on a home run this season, behind two scorching shots hit by Alonso (118.3 mph and 117 mph).
- Even if you're in the cheap seats, you've got a chance at a souvenir. Bell's homers have traveled an average distance of 414 feet, which is 13th longest among double-digit home run hitters this season. His most epic shot came on May 8, when he rocketed a Shelby Miller fastball 472 feet against the Texas Rangers. That's tied for the 11th-longest home run hit this season.
- Bell, a switch-hitter, is mauling pitches from both sides of the plate. He has 20 homers as a lefty batter, and seven while taking cuts from the right side. From both sides, Bell's power to the middle of the field is impressive:
- He's going up swinging. Bell has been ultra-aggressive on the first pitch of at-bats, swinging 40.2 percent of the time (28.2 percent MLB average). That approach has paid off, as Bell has cracked five first-pitch home runs. That's tied for the 16th-highest total among MLB hitters. Even if he falls behind, though, he's lethal. With seven home runs in two-strike counts, Bell ranks seventh among all big-league hitters.
- He likes slugging against quality teams, and division foes. Nineteen of Bell's 27 bombs have come against teams with winning records, according to Baseball Reference. His most frequent victims include the Cubs and Reds (four HR apiece), as well as the Diamondbacks (three).
So, can Bell topple Kiner for the all-time single-season home run record for a Pirates hitter? The projection systems are skeptical, with well-known forecasting platforms like ZiPS estimating that he'll hit around 12-15 homers during the rest of the 2019 season. But you don't have to be a notorious, anonymous scout to know that Bell has proven people wrong before.
MORE PIRATES
• Peak nightmare: Felipe Vazquez is pitching better than ever before. He's on his way to establishing a new career high in strikeout rate (37 percent of plate appearances, compared to a 29.2 percent career average) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.0, 3.8 career average). Vazquez still brings triple-digit gas, but he has diversified his pitch mix even more this year. He's throwing fewer fastballs (60 percent, compared to 66 percent in 2018) while more than doubling his percentage of sliders thrown (17 percent in 2019, 8 percent in '18). Vazquez has limited batters to a .103 batting average with his slider, with zero extra-base hits allowed (per MLB Statcast). When he throws a slider with two strikes, Vazquez is sending batters back to the dugout 72 percent of the time. Good luck.
• Brault at the bat: As a group, pitchers continue to make the case for the universal DH. Pitchers have collectively struck out at the highest rate in MLB history (43 percent of plate appearances) while posting the seventh-worst park and league-adjusted batting line for their position. There's one guy who wants nothing to do with the universal DH, though: Pirates lefty Steven Brault. Brault, who also played outfielder while at Regis University, has a .381 average/.381 on-base percentage/.429 slugging percentage in 2019. His adjusted batting line is above the overall MLB average (114 OPS+), and it ranks second among all pitchers who have taken at least 20 trips to the plate this season (Zack Greinke leads everyone with a 117 OPS+). He's not Shohei Ohtani, but Brault brings some value with his bat compared to his punch-and-judy peers.
