STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Felipe Vazquez and Josh Bell will represent the Pirates in the 90th edition of the MLB All Star Game tonight.
The rest of the 2019 edition of the PBC will get a chance to take a breather, assess their performances to date and ready themselves for the "second half" of the season.
Much like the club itself, we'll do the same. Here, we will shed light on a handful of myths that surround the 2019 Pirates, ultimately attempting to either sniff a whiff of validity to the perception, or dismiss it entirely.
Myth #1: Clint Hurdle can't manage a bullpen
Perhaps the only true criticism that one can level at a Major League Baseball manager, bullpen management is a hot topic for many fans and observers alike.
It is one of the few areas in which a manager has direct influence over an individual game's outcome. Pushing the right buttons can make one of these 30 men look like geniuses. Making the wrong choice turns them into a scapegoat at the speed of a Vazquez fastball.
Clearly, there is something to this myth, as Pirates relievers carry a .339 wOBA against, ranking 23rd out of the 30 MLB clubs.
Other peripherals are kinder -- the unit's 24.5 percent strikeout rate ranks as sixth best in the National League -- while others still are a bit harsh, such as having the NL's second-worst walk rate at 10.7 percent.
With a solid back-end in Vazquez and, until recently, Kyle Crick, the onus for this middling performance rests solely on the club's middle relief.
But back to Hurdle. Aside from bringing in the wrong hurler at the wrong time, the skipper has also taken heat for arbitrarily resting his best horses at the absolute wrong times. Hindsight plays a part here, but this particular wrinkle doesn't hold water from a strictly numbers based performance.
Across all of MLB, relievers who are operating on three days of rest or more are posting a wOBA-against figure of .287. Two days of rest or less? .312. That's a sizable difference, yet still not enough to go on.
This is where a manager can earn his paycheck. Only Hurdle, Ray Searage, Justin Meccage, et al. can know the intricacies of their relievers, and when they might need a breather. It's an art vs. science equation. If Hurdle feels that Vazquez is best served with having five days off in a row, as he's done three times this season, then I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Still ... it's fun to imagine just how much better off the club's record might be with a few more dashes of nightmare sprinkled in.
Verdict: True. Probably. Part of it, anyway.
Myth #2: [Insert player here] has to regress at some point
This one should be fun, because we can insert quite a few hitters into the brackets right above. Bell, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman seem to be the most logical candidates for this myth, so let's roll with them.
In Bell's case, we may have already seen him "regress." June saw him hit .208 with just 13 extra base hits across 114 plate appearances.
And we all know what happened when the calendar flipped to July. Bell jumped right back on his torrid pace by getting back to making solid contact in more areas of the zone:
Here, we see that Bell is getting back to making solid contact anywhere in the zone, instead of the small sliver of opportunity seen in June. With so many other peripherals virtually unchanged during his "down" month, Bell seems to have already come out the other side and will be just fine, home run derby curse be damned.
I've written a ton about how Reynolds will regress, just not at the precipitous decline that many are predicting, based solely on his bloated BABIP. Yet, Reynolds just keeps getting better in key ways.
In April, he saw just 12.8 percent of his pitches while ahead in the count. That figure improved to 27 percent in May and 31 percent in June. By getting to better counts, Reynolds is getting better at seeing better pitches, and he continues to produce against them. Perhaps my favorite Reynolds stat is this one: He has gone hitless across consecutive starts just twice this season.
Newman's case is a little trickier. His outs carry nearly the same average exit velocity as his hits, suggesting a bit of luck involved. Though his ultimate ceiling might still be in question, his floor is as steady as they come. Having displayed fantastic contact skills throughout his rise through the minors, Newman has the foundation to keep it up, especially if he continues to whiff at just 6.8 percent of fastballs in the zone, considerably better than the MLB-wide rate of 11.4 percent.
Verdict: Myth.
Myth #3 - The Pirates' middle relief has been horrendous
I won't argue that the Pirates' middle relief has been shaky at best, as would any unit with names such as Dovydas Neverauskas, Alex McRae and Montana DuRapau each making cameos.
Yet, the numbers show the unit residing much closer to mediocre than putrid. Here's a look at selected peripherals among all Pirates relievers within the 5th through 7th innings, with the MLB rates for context:
The picture painted across the board is a unit that is milquetoast at best. This should come as no surprise to anyone. Yet there is some opportunity here. Keone Kela is working his way back to the fold, presumably bringing his career 12.4 percent swinging strike rate with him -- assuming he is fully healthy.
Reading the tea leaves tells us that general manager Neal Huntington will look to add to his middle relief unit, a strategy with which he has had success at past deadlines. Help is on the way for this unit, which isn't all that bad to begin with.
Verdict: Myth. By a hair.
MORE MOUND VISIT
July 8: A four-seam heavy first half
July 5: Dickerson feasts on fastballs
July 3: Dinger Data: Bell Blasts
July 2: The Four-Seamer awards
