STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Here at DK Pittsburgh Sports, we've had a lot of fun talking about pitching over the first three months of the season.
Whether it be trying to make sense of Chris Archer's season, finding fixes for the bullpen or offering theories as to why Steven Brault has suddenly become the team's de-facto ace, we've talked about the hurlers quite a bit in Mound Visit to date.
The Pirates have played 82 games as of this writing -- just over the halfway point -- and that makes today a perfect time to highlight those pitches deserving of recognition - those missiles, breakers and knee-benders that are worthy of the spotlight. These awards might have titles you're familiar with, others might be a bit more tongue in cheek. Today we'll start with the four-seam fastballs.
MOST LIKELY TO SUCCEED
We'll start with a classic high school superlative. Felipe Vazquez's slider is his best pitch. No question about that. But let's give it up for his four-seam fastball, which has a wide range of utility to it.
Not only can he use it to blow by hitters with 98.46 miles per hour of scream on average, it can set up that wipeout slider at a very efficient rate. In FF-SL pitch pairings (fourseam-slider), Vazquez has limited hitters to a .173 xwOBA over his career on at-bats that end on that particular pairing.
Vazquez's straight heat has the prerequisite ability to fool a hitter, with a 24.4 percent whiff per swing rate, good for third overall among relief pitchers with at least 25 total four-seam whiffs. He can do all of this while attacking the zone at a 58.5 percent rate, perhaps due to a spin rate of 2,623 rpm. This allows his fastball to rise, opening up a vast expanse of opportunity at the top of the zone, much like this punchout of Ronald Acuna Jr.:
MR. CONGENIALITY
For this award, usually given to the friendliest in a given competition, we'll spin it thus: Which Pirates pitcher's fastball is the friendliest to opposing hitters?
Can it be any other hurler than Archer? My very first edition of Mound Visit explored just how bad Archer's four-seamer was, and the intervening months have done little to assuage that opinion.
Despite a .271 BABIP, Archer's fastball gets knocked around to the tune of a 5.22 FIP. Perhaps his grotesque 17.9 percent barrel rate explains this. Well, there's nothing to speculate on here: the pitch can get tagged well and often. The pitch carries an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph, an xwOBA of .423 and an xSLG (expected slugging) of .609. That unholy trinity closes the book on Archer's heat.
THE YIN/YANG AWARD
Also known as the Jekyll/Hyde memorial, this award recognizes the fastball that has seen the most change over the year. Can this "honor" go to anyone other than Richard Rodriguez?
Since returning from his demotion on May 27, Rich Rod has pitched to a 2.25 ERA, backed by a .233/.324/.317 triple-slash line. He has leaned into his fastball with meaningful results. Here is a look at his ERA figures on the four-seam in rolling graph fashion:
Jekyll and Hyde, indeed. Already a two-pitch pitcher, Rodriguez's heat must continue to perform well to maximize his slider.
BEST IN SHOW
You might have been wondering why Vazquez's fastball could not take home this honor based on all of the wonderful tidbits seen above. And, would it not be for Trevor Williams' continued effective use of his fastball, he might have done just that.
No, Williams takes the honor as his heat is simply the most effective. It carries a 3.06 FIP -- a figure not far from his expected FIP of 3.55 -- to go along with a .228 expected batting average against. A .289 xwOBA brings meaningful subtext to all of the preceding factoids.
Most surprising, his 24.2 percent whiff per swing rate on the fastball is right up there with Vazquez. How can this be? Williams' four-seam is average on the surface, with just a 91.8 mph average velo and average movement.
The answer, as it was during his epic 2018 stretch run, lies on the edges.
Williams carries a wOBA of .264 on fastballs lining the edges of the strike zone, good for 16th among right-handed MLB starters. He goes there 48.5 percent of the time as well, proving it to be no fluke. It's not as if he arrives there from wicked movement, either. His fastball carries just 1.0 inches of horizontal movement versus the MLB average.
No matter, when you can do this:
Or this:
Or even, this:
Williams began his journey toward solidification by journeying to the edges, and he never left. Based on the ability to craft the pitch into an effective weapon coupled with the actual, real-life results, his fastball takes home the honors as our Best In Show for the first half.
Check back later this week as we continue this series with a look at the club's most interesting sliders.
MORE MOUND VISIT
July 1: Forget BABIP
June 27: How Bell became an All Star
June 26: Inside Melky’s slump
June 25: Quick fixes for the bullpen
