STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Starling Marte hit two home runs last night. They weren't enough to stave off the free fall that the Pirates are seemingly embarking on, but they may have been enough to open the eyes of many who have not yet noticed just how hot he's been.
On May 22, Marte's triple-slash line stood at an anemic .238/.265/.388. In the 17 games before last night, he posted a .386/.449/.586 line, and pushed his overall line up to .289/.329/.477. Yes, that's nearly a hundred point improvement in slugging, and his overall boost has been fueled in part by his refusal to strike out.
His reputation as a free swinger is often an unearned one. Though he can swing at his fair share of junk, Marte has worked to lower his strikeout rate nearly year over year, down to 17.1 percent in 2019 from a 24 percent rate in 2014. Since that May 22 mark, he has lowered that total to just 12.8 percent.
Let's dig deeper on this, because there has been some change in how Marte has approached his ability to control the strike zone in his favor, however slight it may be.
Marte's chase rate (simply put, swings at pitches outside of the zone, regardless of outcome) clocked at 34.5 percent before his uptick in late-May, and that number actually rises since that date with a 39.9 percent clip.
Marte also has flat numbers in terms of chasing pitches at two-strike counts, with a 16.4 percent rate before and 16.7 percent rate after May 22.
And now, where it gets interesting. Marte carries a .389 wOBA on pitches seen immediately following swinging and missing outside of the zone, since May 22nd. Of those pitches seen after he chases, pitchers stay out of the zone 64.2 percent of the time. Marte takes a ball 56.9 percent of the time on those pitches.
So, in essence, this means that Marte is fooling pitchers into thinking they can stay outside of the zone, thinking they can get him to chase once more.
There's that unearned reputation again. He's not biting, though, and is making them pay if he finds a pitch that is perhaps outside of the zone, but juicy enough to do damage with.
Aside from what Marte can control, It's not as if pitchers are doing anything differently with him now than they did previously. Here's a look at his pitches seen before and after May 22:
Even while seeing roughly the same percentage of pitches in the same zones, Marte has been able to hit em high, and hit em low:
One last item of note fueling Marte's resurgence is just how good he's been when seeing a starter multiple times per game. The times through the order penalty is a very real thing -- it has been for years -- but Marte is even better than the rest of MLB when it comes to making pitchers pay after their initial meeting. Overall, major league hitters have a wOBA of .332 over a starter's second time through an order up to and including their fourth time through an order.
Marte had been well below league rates before turning it on, with a .261 wOBA. He has equally been much better than league figures since flipping the switch, with a .472 wOBA since then.
Marte has the ability. He always has. To finally shake the labels he's been saddled with, he'll have to tap into some repeat-ability.
PREVIOUSLY ON MOUND VISIT
- I investigated Colin Moran's ability to barrel the ball.
- I compiled a primer on advanced pitching stats.
- Before that, I did the same for hitters.
- I took a look at Joe Musgrove‘s then-ailing four-seamer.
