BOSTON -- Yinzers …
Greetings from the Hub of the Sports Universe where we’ve moved on from the Red Sox winning another (yawn) World Series championship, and now we’re on to much consternation over this version of the Patriots.
Can’t wait to be back in Pittsburgh this weekend. It’s one of my favorite road trips because of the people and the food/beer.
Patriots at Steelers, late in the season. Love how some things never change, like DK complaining about the officiating after the Steelers blow another big game under Mike Tomlin.
Before we get going this weekend, as DK has done for readers of our site, Boston Sports Journal, I figured I’d give you a quickie look at what you need to know about this version of the Patriots:
• These Patriots are no road warriors.
New England is 3-4 on the road this season, and they’ve never advanced to the Super Bowl with that many road losses. The Patriots were 15-1 on the road the previous two seasons.
And it’s not just that they've struggled on the road, it’s that they haven’t really come close to playing a good game away from Gillette (6-0). They were trashed at Jacksonville and Detroit. Needed 14 points on special teams to edge the Bears and a hurt Khalil Mack by seven. The Bills game was 12-6 well into the fourth quarter. The Patriots were tied 13-13 with a minute left in the third with the Jets. And then the Miami debacle.
Teams show their toughness on the road. This team, to this point, has been soft.
• Offense, defense have bad home/road splits.
The Patriots’ offense is 11 points and 100 total yards worse on the road. Tom Brady averages just 256.4 yards on the road. Their rushing output goes from 141.7 at home to 98.1 on the road. Defensively, the Patriots have allowed 25 points per game, 402.1 total yards, 279.9 passing yards and 122.3 rushing yards away from Gillette.
• This is not MVP Tom Brady.
Last season, the Steelers saw a Brady who was on his way to his third AP NFL MVP award. This is not the same version. Whether it was Brady’s decision to skip the entire offseason (so did Rob Gronkowski), the flux in his targets (Julian Edelman’s suspension, Josh Gordon’s addition, Gronkowski’s injuries), an injury, or he’s finally showing his age (41), Brady has not been the same player.
There have been flashes, like the first half against the Dolphins, but he’s lacked consistency. Most of it stems from his lack of patience in the pocket. He’s not seeing open receivers like he used to, or not letting them develop because he’s reacting to pressure more than ever before.
• Brady’s targets are coming together.
Gronkowski has been a shell of his dominating self so far, but he is coming off his best game of the season. Edelman has battled a left foot injury but caught nine of 12 passes against Miami. Gordon’s catch rate was just 53 percent in his first seven games, but it’s been 81 percent in the past three. And while he was quiet last week (sure felt like they were saving him for the Steelers), James White has been uncoverable out of the backfield.
In short, Brady’s targets are peaking for this Steelers matchup, and I think that’s very much by design.
• Good but small offensive line.
Nate Solder is gone at left tackle, but mammoth Trent Brown has been as good or better as his much-cheaper replacement. Marcus Cannon has been inconsistent at right tackle, but the interior three (LG Joe Thuney, C David Andrews, RG Shaq Mason) are rock-solid. Their issue is they’re just small, so the Steelers may have an edge there.
The running game is solely dependent on the blocking. First-round pick Sony Michel will get what is blocked, but that’s it. The linemen from best to worse: Mason, Andrews, Thuney, Brown and Cannon.
• Passive defense has become much more aggressive.
New England has almost always been a read-and-react defense but in the past three games it has ramped up the pressure, especially on third down. The Patriots' blitz and QB pressure percentages in past three games: Jets (27.5/45.1), Vikings (29.8/34.0), Dolphins (44.4/37.0).
Against the Jets, the Patriots debuted a new amoeba third-down package that is light on linemen and they’ll walk a bunch of players around in the tackle box. It’s been effective, especially with linebackers rushing off of twists. The Vikings and Dolphins converted just 4 of 19 third downs (21.1 percent).
Because the offense has lacked consistency and struggles to find big plays, I think they’re asking more of the defense.
• Defense is average but improved.
The stats won’t bear it out, but the defense has largely been better of late. Against the Dolphins, they gave up a handful of big plays but tightened up to allow just one scoring drive to the Dolphins in the six possessions leading up to the final debacle. Trey Flowers is a force and Kyle Van Noy makes plays on the edges. Stephon Gilmore is gimpy but one of the better corners in the league. Everyone else is average (including Dont’a Hightower). UDFA rookie CB J.C. Jackson is talented and competitive.
How the Steelers should play the Patriots (defensively): First of all, don’t even think about playing that weak-ass zone defense. Brady will kill it, as usual. And don’t go to the 3-4 base when the Patriots go to regular offensive personnel. The Patriots will get Edelman on a linebacker and then it’s over. The Steelers should play nickel and dare the Patriots to run the ball. Don’t double Gronkowski to start — he’s struggled against physical safeties one-on-one — but (unlike last season) have a plan to double him if he gets hot. At least don’t allow him any free releases off the line. Have a plan for White out of the backfield. Think this could be a big game for him. Basically, do what the Titans did.
How the Steelers should play the Patriots (offensively): The Steelers’ offensive line should be able to dominate the Patriots up front so don’t be afraid to run the ball. However, I would pass to setup the run. Spread the Patriots out and then kill them with crossers and leaking the backs out. The Patriots’ linebackers can’t run. Find a personnel package that keeps the linebackers on the field, and then pick the matchups apart. Wouldn’t mind going up tempo, especially on third down because I wouldn’t let the Patriots set up their pressure package. The Steelers should play the game on their terms, which is aggressive and fast on offense. Patriots can’t keep up with that.
Basically, in short, I know the Steelers have struggled of late and are fighting for their playoff lives, but an opportunity for a Pittsburgh victory doesn’t get much better than this. The Patriots stink on the road, Brady hasn’t come close to playing a complete game and none of their weapons (outside White) are going to torch one-on-one coverage.
Of course, this is Tomlin’s Steelers where underachieving has been the theme for the past four-plus seasons. So I’m not all that optimistic.
But have fun this weekend. And if you see me around, make sure you say hi. Oh, and take it easy on our Bruins (they’re a little beat up but spunky) tonight.
