Never put the chicken before the egg or the horse before the cart. Also, it's probably not wise to look too far down an NHL schedule. It is November, after all, and a lot of things can and will change before hockey's so-called real season begins in mid-April.
That's if the Penguins get there.
Right now, it's not looking too promising.
For these guys, who have now lost nine of the past 10 after blowing a three-goal lead and falling in overtime, 5-4, to the Sabres Monday night at PPG Paints Arena, it could actually get worse before it gets better. Look at their next five games and, man, I dare you to find a win in that bunch: Stars, Bruins, Blue Jackets, Jets and Avalanche. All have at least 24 points, at least six more than the Penguins, who sit in the Eastern Conference cellar with 18.
Their latest indignity in a growing list was blowing a 4-1 second-period lead, as the Sabres scored four unanswered goals to stun a team which has seen its collective confidence shaken to its core. The Islanders, Senators and now the Sabres, teams that were not supposed to challenge the Penguins, are now kicking them while they're down.
This is uncharted territory for Mike Sullivan's team whose season has gone sideways on them even before Thanksgiving.
"Going through these experiences are never easy," Sullivan said. "These are proud guys and they want to win. We just have to make sure we stick together and find an answer, rely on one another and trust one another to get the job done."
For 29 minutes and change on Monday, the Penguins could not have scripted a better start. This time it was the finish that did them in.
If not for some brilliant play from Sabres goaltender Carter Hutton, the Penguins could have legitimately had a six or seven-goal lead early, too.
Still, they got a breakaway goal from Derick Brassard, his first since the season opener:
They got greasy goals from Phil Kessel, who had a puck carom off his skates, and one from Jake Guentzel, who collected his own rebound. Tanner Pearson then scored his first with his new team, pushing a rebound home five minutes into the second period:
And then -- poof! -- it was gone. Even a three-goal lead isn't safe with this team. The Penguins seemed to stop skating. They certainly stopped shooting. They had 40 shots in the game but just nine in the third period.
"We just didn't do what we did in the first," Guentzel explained when I asked. "Getting on pucks, getting them back, making plays, shooting the puck, and that was the difference tonight. We kind of sat back in the third a little bit, and we can't do that."
"When you have a lead like that halfway through the game, you can't go into a 'we have to protect the lead' mode," said Jack Johnson. "I think you have to stay after it, keep going. There's way too much hockey left to be played. You can't go into a 'prevent' defense, that usually prevents winning. I just think we've got to do a better job of staying after it. I think we had them on the ropes there, and you can't let them off the ropes."
The Penguins had their chances too, including :29 of a 5-on-3 power play in the second. But Hutton shut the door as he did in the first when he stopped Derek Grant on a breakaway and Phil Kessel on a breakaway in the third.
"It's a step in the right direction, but I think we let one slip away," Guentzel said.
And this is what the Penguins have been reduced to: They liked the final 15 minutes or so of their game Saturday in Ottawa and the first 30 minutes of their game against the Sabres. It's pieces here and there. They just don't seem to be able to put 60 quality minutes together.
While Monday presented a new and interesting way to lose, the Penguins' biggest problem lies in their inability to keep the puck out of their net.
Though Casey DeSmith might be an upgrade over Matt Murray at this point, he can't allow Zach Bogosian to score on a slap shot to the far side or Casey Mittelstadt to beat him on a wrist shot to the shortside. Certainly, he can't allow Jack Eichel's game-winner to trickle under his arm and across the goal line:
"I'm the last line of defense, and obviously trying to hold it to three goals there and pull out the win," said DeSmith, who has lost his last three starts. "But they got one, and got a win in overtime, and I didn't do that."
Not that he had a lot of help.
Mittlestadt's tying goal at 11:12 of the third was the direct result of Evgeni Malkin failing to clear the zone and then turning the puck over. Malkin was also negligent on Eichel's winner, when he turned the puck over at the offensive blue line, resulting in a 2-on-1 the other way.
Afterward, he -- and so many of his teammates -- were unavailable for comment.
"On a couple of the goals they score, we make a mistake and it ends up in the back of the net," Sullivan said. "That seems to be the way it's going for us."
Just a warning though, it might get worse.
"Every game is important," the coach said. "Were scratching and clawing for every point we can get. We're well aware of the position we're in. None of us are happy with it."
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
THREE STARS
My curtain calls go to …
1. Carter Hutton
Sabres goalie
Stopped 36 of 40 shots and is now 5-0 against Pittsburgh.
2. Jack Eichel
Sabres center
Two points, including OT winner.
3. Tanner Pearson
Penguins left winger
Doubled his season output with two points (goal and assist), his first with the Penguins.
THE INJURIES
• Penguins: Matt Cullen, center, is out longer term with a lower body injury it was announced earlier Monday. Sidney Crosby, center, missed his third straight game with an upper body injury sustained Tuesday vs. the Devils. Justin Schultz, defenseman, is expected to miss four months after fracturing his leg Oct. 13 in Montreal.
• Sabres: Former Penguin Matt Hunwick, defenseman, was on IR with a neck injury. Scott Wilson, forward, was also on IR with an ankle injury. Neither has played this season.
THE GOOD
If you can't score, and Riley Sheahan certainly hasn't been doing that, you still have to contribute.
Truth be told, Sheahan was likely only playing because Cullen was out. No, Sheahan's name won't show up on the stat sheet either, but the struggling center made a positive impact, figuratively and literally, when he reached his breaking point.
At the 16:50 mark of the first period, Jake McCabe leveled Zach Aston-Reese behind the Penguins' net. It probably could have been called a boarding major — it wasn't — but the Penguins got their pound of flesh when Sheahan stepped in and gave McCabe a decent fight:
It was the first major penalty -- fighting or otherwise -- in his eight-year career and his first penalty minutes this season. His highest single-season PIM total was just 16.
It was the Penguins' second fighting major this season following Jamie Oleksiak's Oct. 23 fight against Zack Kassian in Edmonton.
THE BAD
Speaking of Oleksiak, there was a scary moment late in the second period when the big defenseman was felled by, of all things, the skate of linesman Brian Murphy.
Oleksiak rubbed out Vladimir Sobotka along the boards near the Buffalo bench. In the process, Murphy, who climbed atop the dasher to avoid interfering the play, was knocked backward, sending him into the laps of the Sabres' players seated on their bench. With Murphy's skates up, Oleksiak took a kick to the mouth.
Fortunately, relatively speaking, for Oleksiak, it was not Murphy's skate blade.
On March 22, 1989, the most infamous skate cut accident occurred when Sabres goalie Clint Malarchuk had his jugular vein slashed by the skates of Blues forward Steve Tuttle.
Oleksiak was not injured and remained in the game. But it was the second freak accident in as many games for the Penguins after Patric Hornqvist took his own shot off the forehead in warmups on Saturday.
THE PLAY
A season ago, the NHL's 3-on-3 overtime format was perhaps the Penguins' saving grace. Without it, they might not have even qualified for the playoffs.
In 2017-18, the Penguins played 20 games that went beyond regulation and were able to pick up two points in 14 of them. Four fewer points and they would have seen their run of consecutive playoff appearances -- currently the NHL's longest -- snapped at 12.
Now? Much like everything else, even OT isn't automatic anymore for the Penguins.
With Monday night's loss they fell to 2-4 overall in games that go beyond regulation.
With their offensive arsenal, even without Crosby, the 3-on-3 should heavily favor them. But on Monday they looked lost, even before Malkin's gaffe.
When I asked Sullivan about his team's lack of success this season in OT, he said he couldn't explain it.
"I think our team has the weapons to play 3-on-3," he said. "It's all about possession and keeping the puck. So we've got to make good decisions with our shot selection and when we push the puck down the ice and when we have to slow it down."
THE CALL
Guentzel's goal 1:24 into the second period gave the Penguins a 3-1 lead, their first two-goal lead since their last win on Nov. 10 (vs. Arizona).
However, Buffalo challenged the play because as Hornqvist drove the net he make incidental contact with the left skate of Hutton. After a short review in Toronto, the goal was upheld and Buffalo lost its timeout.
It appeared to be the right call, but you never know with goalie interference.
THE OTHER SIDE
Say this for the Sabres: They are not only much improved, they are relentless.
What they did to the Penguins was nothing they haven't done already this season. They are now 5-6-1 when trailing after two periods. That's compared to 0-7-1 for the Penguins when trailing after 40 minutes.
"There's a bit of confidence now because we've done it a few times," Eichel told reporters. "I think it's a trust and a belief in each other. You look at the room, I think the guys are believing the next guy's going to get the job done and set you up for your shifts.
"We're a pretty tight bunch right now for how many new guys have come into this team. I think we're getting really close right now and we're doing it for each other, and I think that's the biggest thing. Everyone out there doesn't want to let the guy next to them down."
Monday night's win was Buffalo's first overtime victory over the Penguins since Dec. 15, 2005, when Chris Drury netted the game-winner across the street at Mellon Arena. It was also the last game that Mario Lemieux played and the first that Michel Therrien coached.
THE SCHEDULE
The Penguins will practice at noon on Tuesday in Cranberry. They'll host the Dallas Stars on Wednesday night at 7:08 p.m.
THE COVERAGE
Visit our Penguins team page for everything.
