This is the first part of a series that looks at the three big questions surrounding the Pirates as the offseason begins in earnest. The second part, tomorrow, will look at who could be the starting middle infielders on opening day. The third part, Friday, will examine the options to replace Gregory Polanco while the right fielder recovers from shoulder surgery that could sideline him until June.
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The Pirates did so little to improve their roster last winter that it drew the ire of both the players union and the fan base.
Of Major League Baseball's 30 teams, the Pirates were the only one not to sign a free agent to a major-league contract. The Players Association filed a grievance against the Pirates, Marlins, Athletics and Rays, claiming the four franchises broke a rule of the collective bargaining agreement by not using revenue-sharing money to improve the major league club.
The only major moves made by the Pirates, of course, were trading Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole in January. Those deals undoubtedly played a role in the Pirates having their worst home attendance since 1996.
Yet it seems likely the Pirates will sign some free agents this winter.
They consider themselves contenders in the strong National League Central after finishing a surprising 82-79 and making a stunning trade with the Rays for All-Star right-hander Chris Archer on July 31. Among the items on their wish list are a shortstop, a right fielder and a left-handed reliever. What's more, Neal Huntington should have at least a little financial flexibility. He won't be able to pursue Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, needless to say, but he has a chance to get in on some middle-tier free agents.
Including buyouts of $1 million to Josh Harrison and $250,000 to Jung Ho Kang while declining club options on both for 2019, and the expected exit of Jordy Mercer in free agency, the Pirates would have $50,516,667 in salaries owed to the six players under contract: Francisco Cervelli is in line to be the highest-paid with an $11.5 million salary while Starling Marte will make $10,333,333, Ivan Nova $9,166,667, Archer $7,666,667, Polanco $6.1 million and Felipe Vazquez $4.5 million.
The Pirates have four players eligible for salary arbitration, but fourth-string catcher Ryan Lavarnway seems likely to be dropped from the 40-man roster. Corey Dickerson figures to receive a salary of approximately $8.5 million, but Keone Kela (estimated $3.5 million and Michael Feliz (estimated $1 million) shouldn't get bank-breaking money.
That brings the payroll to $63,266,667 with 17 spots to fill on the 25-man roster. We should also factor that there will likely be some players who begin the season on the disabled list. Let's go with a guess-timate of three for this exercise. None of those 20 players, with the way the 40-man roster is presently constituted, would have the requisite service time to enter the arbitration process. Thus, they would earn the minimum salary of $555,000 or just above it.
Let's estimate that group would earn a total of approximately $12.75 million.
That brings the payroll to $76,016,667.
How much money that leaves for free agent or trade acquisitions depends on if the Pirates want to build on the momentum of the good will generated toward the fans with the Archer trade, as well as finishing with a winning record for just the fourth time in 26 seasons. In that case, they could approach their 2018 actual payout to players, which was $91,025,861, according to Spotrac.com.
That would leave Huntington with nearly $15 million to spend.
Of course, the Pirates could also look to be thrifty as they would have the built-in reasoning of a bad year at the gate. In that event, they may opt to open 2019 with the same $85 million payroll figure as the start of last season, leaving $9 million left.
Huntington could possibly get creative and trade Cervelli, opening the starting catcher's job for Elias Diaz, as well as payroll space. The Diamondbacks, Astros, Angels, Dodgers and Nationals are potential fits.
While $85 million or $90 million seems like a generous figure for the Pirates, it really isn't much when placed in the context of the rest of the major leagues. Their opening-day payroll was 25th, and the season-ending payroll slipped to 27th ahead of just the Athletics ($76 million), White Sox ($71 million) and Rays ($66 million).
Then there is the sobering thought of the Red Sox winning the World Series last weekend. Boston finished with the highest payroll in the majors at $240 million. That was a whopping $150 million more than the Pirates.
