Antonio Brown and Bud Dupree live it up after a practice drill this week. — MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

Steelers

Kovacevic: Confidence now a state of climb

Jan 13, 2017 • 12:38 am

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The Steelers will beat the Packers in Super Bowl LI.

That's not me talking. That's not a prediction. That's simply applying the oft-cited conventional wisdom that the hottest teams tend to prevail in the NFL playoffs, a concept that received yet another ringing public endorsement this week from no less an authority than Ben Roethlisberger: “This game is about when you can get hot. It’s important to play your best football late in the season, when it matters the most.”

We all believe that, right?

Yeah?

Hm.

Going back to 2002 and the inception of the eight-division format, the 24 hottest teams over the final six weeks of the regular season went 22-21 in the playoffs with three Super Bowl berths and two championships, the Patriots of 2002 and the Seahawks of 2014. And the 24 coldest teams over the final six weeks of the regular season went 26-21 with five Super Bowl berths and three championships.

Advantage: Cold.

What's more, for the first time in league history, the past three seasons have seen the No. 1 seeds from the AFC and NFC sides reach the Super Bowl. It's been like old-school baseball, back when only the American League and National League pennant winners advanced to the World Series.

Advantage: No. 1 seed.

So OK, forget about these Steelers, winners of eight in a row after losing four in a row. Forget about the Packers, winners of seven in a row after losing four in a row. Forget about any romanticism attached to rebounding from midseason slumps or recovering from major injuries.

Because none of that will amount to a whit, right?