Kovacevic: The Great Regression? Maybe

SARASOTA, Fla. -- The bat whipped around violently over Pedro Alvarez's shoulder, narrowly missing the home plate ump and digging a divot back by the backstop.

And hey, welcome to 2016, where that's actually a good thing for the Pirates.

Because out there on the mound, generating the 95-mph high heat that got that corkscrew going, was Juan Nicasio, maybe the only present hope for upside in a rotation that, at least at the moment, points powerfully toward a regression for the franchise as a whole.

And oh, man, did Juan have it going on, fanning 10 of the 14 Orioles he faced in a 9-3 loss Wednesday at Ed Smith Stadium. He allowed two baserunners in rifling through four innings, he threw 37 of 59 pitches for strikes, and he had heads shaking on both sides of the diamond.

This was the 10th K, courtesy of a filthy slider and a frozen Mark Trumbo:



"We like what we're seeing," Clint Hurdle offered with a slight, incredulous head shake. Then, addressing the current depth chart that shows Nicasio as No. 6 in a five-man field, he added, "We're not ruling anything out right now. Anything at all."



It was that kind of showing. And it was high-level entertainment, as Grapefruit ball goes. But the cold fact in this 81-degree heat remained that Nicasio is no more of a sure thing than most facets about the Pirates and their bid to reach the playoffs for a fourth consecutive year, never mind matching or exceeding 98 wins.

To wit:

1. THIS IS SERIOUSLY THE ROTATION?

Rather than view this from the negative, fair as that perspective is, consider instead what has to occur for this rotation to be successful -- at a contender's level -- in 2016:

• Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano absolutely, unequivocally must make 30-plus starts. And given that Cole is opening the season limited and Liriano is long overdue for an injury based on his history, this is pie-in-the-sky stuff.

• Jon Niese needs to be anything but the guy who posted a 5.33 ERA in the final two months of last season and was booted from the Mets' rotation.

• Ryan Vogelsong needs to rediscover his 2014 form at age 38, this after a full season in which his ERA swelled from 4.00 to 4.83, and his innings shrunk from 184.2 to 135.

• Jeff Locke ... you know.

As for Nicasio, he had three consecutive seasons of a 5-plus ERA in 2012-14, but those were at Coors Field. He had a 3.86 ERA with the Dodgers last season, but that included only one start. He won't be the hero, either.

Yeah, he had fun out there, somehow sizzling more than the sun:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU4ZkZND2ug

But the bottom line is that he's a reliever wrapped as a starter for the moment. And going full-bore for 10 strikeouts for four innings against a free-swinging opponent is a testament to applying a relief mentality to a start he knew wouldn't last long.

I asked him later about pitching to contact, as Ray Searage stresses to all his starters.

"That's OK. I know I have to do that," Nicasio replied. "But this is good, too."

Maybe here. Not up north.

The most likely cavalry will be the eventual promotion of the top two pitching prospects, Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon. Both are tall, tough and talented. Both can bring it. But both also were dispatched back to the minors this week for real reasons: Glasnow lacks a changeup, and management sees that as a potentially fatal flaw for him in the majors, rightly or wrongly. Taillon needs to show some semblance of durability.

Beyond that?

Hey, there remains the real -- the very real, I'm told -- possibility that Neal Huntington could still address his inexplicable hibernation on this critical matter. And yes, that means before the opener.

2. WHO WILL REPLACE THE LOST POWER?

Alvarez and Neil Walker walked away with their combined 43 home runs from 2015, and the Pirates are left with no realistic replacement for that. At least not specifically.

Josh Harrison could revert to 2014 form and deliver much more than last season. His home runs nosedived from 13 to 4, his OPS from .837 to .717. Beyond that, though, any additional power would have to come from Starling Marte upgrading over 19 home runs, Gregory Polanco dramatically upgrading over nine, and a quick, healthy return from Jung Ho Kang. And not one of those scenarios is unthinkable.

Listen to J-Hay talk about the Pirates' many 'hybrid' players:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lybWOIy5f4c

3. IS IT SO HARD TO FIND AN ACTUAL FIRST BASEMAN?

Francisco Cervelli threw down to first to pick off the Orioles' Manny Machado in the third inning. Had him dead to rights, too.

One problem: John Jaso doesn't know how to play first base.

Not yet, anyway.

Which would explain why he was nearly three steps in off the bag and, by the time he caught Cervelli's rocket, reached around with his glove to lunge at nothing but air.

Actually, you can run the table of the Pirates' depth chart at first base and not find anyone particularly sound defensively: Michael Morse, Josh Bell, David Freese, Jake Goebbert and Jason Rogers. And that would be a really strange thing except that, remember, we're talking about a franchise that hasn't been truly set at the position since -- no kidding -- Willie Stargell.

All the shifts on the spreadsheet won't save runs without a sure-handed first baseman.

4. A HAT TRICK FOR THE BULLPEN?

Jared Hughes and Arquimedes Caminero had their teeth kicked in Wednesday to the tune of a combined touchdown over 2 1/3 innings. It wasn't pretty. It also doesn't matter much, as Hughes, in particular, has proven his worth in games that matter. The bullpen as a whole, actually, won't -- and shouldn't -- be changed by anything that happens here.

The bigger issue is that Mark Melancon and Tony Watson already defied every bullpen paradigm in existence by being superb two summers in a row. And asking for a third is defiance of a far higher degree, in light of Melancon having logged 72 and 78 appearances the past two years, and Watson having logged 78 and 77. Those were hard, high-pressure innings, too.

I asked Hughes, who's been the fireman long enough to share rent with those two, about this.

"We know it's not something you see every day," he said, "and we're proud of it."

Imagine another. If you can.

5. IS THE OUTFIELD ABOUT TO PEAK?

Andrew McCutchen is good. Also, he occasionally hits baseballs very far:



That was a two-run moon shot in the fourth. NASA is working to confirm its return to orbit.

Cutch is 29. That's a player's prime. Irrationally fret over his departure following 2018 if that's what floats your angst, but the fact is the Pirates are getting Cutch's best years, not his inevitable decline. It might be unreasonable to expect this to be his very best in the singular sense -- his OPS sunk from .952 to .889 last season, largely because of that awful April -- but it should still be up there.

Marte is 27, Polanco 24. Neither has peaked. Marte's poise and power are only beginning to round out. Polanco hasn't come close to fulfilling his five-tool potential, this despite showing plenty already.

Average all three of those situations out, and the best Pittsburgh outfield in a generation, maybe two, could well achieve its collective best.

"For me, for sure," Marte offered without hesitation when I raised the topic. "This is going to be my best year, for sure."

Yeah, but the whole outfield? The whole team?

"We're good. We're confident. We'll see in Pittsburgh."

Sounded about right.