Halicke: Second-half schedule still brutal, but not overwhelming

Outside of a couple rough games in Weeks 4-5, the first half of the 2024 season couldn't have gone much better for the Steelers. But, we knew before this all began the first half wasn't going to be the true test for the Steelers. Rather, a brutal stretch over the final nine weeks would likely decide the season.

But, now that we're here at the bye week, what does the second half of the schedule look like now? How have things changed since early September? Remember, this is supposed to be riveting football as the AFC North will be documented by HBO's Hard Knocks.

Let's break this down by opponent. Since the Steelers haven't played any divisional games yet, that means we'll look at six different teams for the remaining nine games.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

• Record: 6-2
• Matchup: Week 10 (away)
• Scoring offense: 29.5 (3rd)
• Scoring defense: 20.9 (11th)
• Offense EPA: 0.216 (1st)
• Defense EPA: 0.041 (22nd)

Of all the surprises this year, the Commanders deserve to be near the top of the list. Most people probably expected them to be better. But, having the most efficient offense in the league with a rookie quarterback certainly wasn't a strong bet before the season began.

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been sensational, and that's been a big part of their success. Daniels has the second-best EPA (expected points added) per play and completion percentage above expected (CPOE), all while averaging 8.1 air yards. He's not throwing just beyond the line of scrimmage. He's airing it out and the offense is humming.

While all successful Hail Mary throws are more luck than anything else, Daniels heaving this pass while dealing with busted ribs is big-boy stuff:

Outlook: If the Commanders have a weakness this season, it's on the defensive side of the ball. They aren't very efficient on that side of the ball at all, especially against the run. They rank 25th in the NFL, allowing 140.4 yards per game. They're also 26th in both rush EPA and rush success rate on defense. The Steelers are running the ball effectively right now, and the best way to beat a good quarterback is by keeping him on the sideline.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Record: 5-3
• Division record: 1-1
• Conference record: 2-3
• Matchups: Week 11 (home), Week 16 (away)
• Scoring offense: 30.3 (2nd)
• Scoring defense: 26.1 (26th)
• Offense EPA: 0.194 (2nd)
• Defense EPA: 0.084 (26th)

The Ravens are about what everyone would expect them to be. They were thought to be the favorite in the AFC North, and the division is still very much up for grabs. They were thought to be the best team to possibly thwart the Chiefs, and they stood toe to toe with them in the season opener.

Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level once again, but the addition of Derrick Henry has made this offense one of the very best in the NFL. Henry is far and away the NFL's leading rusher, and with the way Jackson can hurt defenses with his legs, teams are struggling to find ways to stop the run without forgetting what Jackson can do through the air.

But, not putting enough guys in the box when Henry is running like this ...

... really stresses defenses.

The Ravens bolstered their receiving corps by recently trading for former Steeler Diontae Johnson. However, the Ravens' secondary is one of the very worst in the league. Baltimore is giving up an NFL-worst 291.4 passing yards per game, and their dropback EPA isn't much better on defense, ranking 28th. Without any trade deadline deals to bolster the secondary, if could be a huge issue for them the rest of the way.

Outlook: I understand the Steelers typically have a lot of success against Jackson, but remember that when the Steelers swept this series last year, Jackson's receivers dropped several passes in a game the Ravens realistically should have won. And, Jackson didn't play in the season finale that took place in a monsoon. Be wary of bold predictions. The Ravens, even with their issues in the secondary, are still a very formidable foe. A split here would be a big win for the Steelers, especially considering they have a leg up on conference record.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Record: 2-6
• Division record: 1-1
• Conference record: 2-2
• Matchups: Week 12 (away), Week 14 (home)
• Scoring offense: 17.3 (27th)
• Scoring defense: 23.3 (18th)
• Offense EPA: -0.152 (28th)
• Defense EPA: 0.005 (18th)

Coming off an 11-6 season, the Browns were thought to possibly regress just a bit this season, but still have a legitimate chance to compete in the AFC North. Instead, they have been a total disaster. Didn't matter what side of the ball you looked at, the Browns were terrible.

Among their issues, Deshaun Watson was far and away the worst. Not only because he's statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but also because his contract is arguably the worst in NFL history. To make matters worse, the Browns have kicked the can down the road, and now Watson's cap hit in each of the next two seasons will be $72.9 million. 

Perhaps the Browns' saving grace this season is Watson going down for the year with a torn Achilles. That sounds terrible because nobody should think positively of anyone getting injured. But, Jameis Winston immediately stepped in and made it look like the Browns have a legitimate quarterback:

With Winston at the helm, the Browns took down the Ravens and all of a sudden don't appear to be completely dysfunctional. Nick Chubb is also back now from his knee injury, so the Browns should get better at running the ball.

Outlook: All of that being said, this is still a team the Steelers should sweep. They lack too much on either side of the ball, and the Browns traded away Amari Cooper to the Bills, which signals the white flag for them this season. The only thing that'll hurt the Steelers' first matchup with the Browns is it being on the road on a short week after playing the Ravens. There will definitely be attrition from that matchup with Baltimore, which could make that Thursday night matchup in Cleveland a bit of a wildcard.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

• Record: 3-5
• Division record: 1-1
• Conference record: 1-3
• Matchups: Week 13 (away), Week 18 (home)
• Scoring offense: 24.4 (T-10th)
• Scoring defense: 25.4 (23rd)
• Offense EPA: 0.084 (8th)
• Defense EPA: 0.089 (27th)

Similar to the Browns, the Bengals' season started in horrendous fashion. They lost to a bad Patriots team in Week 1, then lost to the Chiefs and Commanders to fall to 0-3. A Week 4 matchup against the Panthers allowed them to avoid a dreadful 0-4 start, but they blew two 10-point leads in the second half against the Ravens to ultimately lose in overtime and fall to 1-4. 

The Bengals are 2-1 since then, but those two wins were over the Giants and Browns, two bad football teams. The one good team they've faced recently was the Eagles, and they lost that game, 37-17.

Amid all of the Bengals' issues, they still have a pretty explosive offense. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are still one of the best quarterback-receiver duos in the league:

But, similar to the Ravens, the Bengals' defense is not good. But, they are especially bad against the run. While they rank 24th with 139.3 rushing yards allowed per game, their rush EPA ranks 31st in the league. Only Dallas is worse. Opposing teams are also having the most consistent success on the ground against the Bengals, as Cincinnati has the worst success rate against on the ground.

Outlook: In order to at least split with the Bengals, the Steelers' defense will need to find ways to limit what Burrow can do through the air. The Steelers' offense, especially with the way it's playing right now, should be able to put up yards against the Cincinnati defense. Yards should mean time of possession, and hopefully enough points to win at least one of these two games.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Record: 5-2
• Matchup: Week 15 (away)
• Scoring offense: 24.4 (T-10th)
• Scoring defense: 18.9 (7th)
• Offense EPA: 0.099 (6th)
• Defense EPA: 0.000 (17th)

For a while, it looked like the Eagles were about to be one of the league's biggest surprises, and not in a good way for those on the wrong side of the commonwealth. After their first five games, they were 3-2, but coming off a game in which they barely beat a Browns team that was in its worst shape.

However, they seemed to have turned things around. They pummeled the Giants, 28-3, and handily beat the Bengals by 20 points. The Eagles are one of the few teams that rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense and defense. While they are pretty average in terms of efficiency on the defensive side of the ball, there are no glaring weaknesses on this team.

The Eagles are a stout running team, and they've recently been having Jalen Hurts take more advantage of his legs. And, it's working. However, there's no denying that adding Saquon Barkley had made Philadelphia a much better rushing team. He's second in the NFL in rushing for a reason. He's now got a decent offensive line and is tearing defenses up with his elite running ability:

Outlook: This will be one of the Steelers' toughest tests. As previously mentioned, there are no glaring weaknesses here. And, the game takes place in Philadelphia. The Steelers haven't won in Philadelphia since 1965. Even the Super Bowl champion 1979 Steelers lost in Philly. I don't like this matchup for the Steelers in a lot of ways. Unless they start becoming a sideshow under Nick Sirianni's antics again, that won't change.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Record: 7-0
• Conference record: 4-0
• Matchup: Week 17 (home)
• Scoring offense: 24.7 (9th)
• Scoring defense: 17.6 (5th)
• Offense EPA: 0.063 (10th)
• Defense EPA: -0.067 (9th)

Absolutely no surprises here. The Chiefs are the defending champions, and as long as Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback, you can never bet against the guy. He's already a Hall of Famer, and he's only 29 years old.

That being said, Mahomes is having a pretty lousy season, especially for his standards. While he's completing 68.4% of his passes, he's thrown eight touchdown passes to nine interceptions. He's also averaging 235.9 passing yards per game, which is the lowest mark of his career.

Even so, every time anyone's begun to doubt Mahomes, he's found another level. And, he's still capable of making any play at any time, no matter what we think it may or may look like. Sometimes it's an unorthodox throw or trucking a defensive player like he's a fullback:

One thing that people need to remember about the Chiefs is how good their defense is. When they won the Super Bowl last season, they had the league's No. 2 defense. This season, they're No. 6. Chris Jones is one of the very best defensive players in the game and should be considered for Defensive Player of the Year. So, not only are defenses already up for a tall task in dealing with Mahomes, Kansas City's defense is legitimately one of the best in football. This is a great, great team.

Outlook: I don't like this matchup for the Steelers whatsoever. The Steelers' style of defense this season of rushing four and dropping seven into Cover 3 is asking for Mahomes to pick them apart all game long. And, the Chiefs' defense is probably the best the Steelers will face in the entire second half of the schedule. The one thing that makes this a potential wildcard is the game will take place on Christmas Day. That's a Wednesday, which means both teams will have played on the Saturday before. With it being a short week, the Steelers being home and it being a holiday, you never know what may happen.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The second-half of the schedule is still brutal. The stretch of playing in Philadelphia, then playing in Baltimore six days later, then playing the Chiefs at home on Christmas four days later is as tough of a stretch as any in football this season. One win in that stretch would be a huge victory.

But, the AFC North is considerably weaker than anyone thought. The floor for the Steelers in the division should be 3-3. However, I think splitting with the Ravens is realistic as those two teams always play each other tightly. And, while the Browns are not a good team, playing them on a short week after having to play Baltimore could be problematic. However, a split with Cleveland is the floor here. I don't see the Steelers losing twice to a bad Browns team.

Both times the Steelers play the Bengals, they are doing so with a mini-bye prior to the game. The first game takes place in Cincinnati after the trip to Cleveland for Thursday Night Football, then the second game is the season finale after the Steelers will have played the Chiefs on Christmas. That game takes place at least 10 days prior to when the Steelers host the Bengals to close out the season. So, it's not farfetched to think the Steelers sweep the Bengals.

4-2 in the division and winning just one of the games against the Commanders, Eagles or Chiefs would put the Steelers at 11-6. That may not be good enough to win the AFC North, but that should be more than good enough to earn the highest-seeded wildcard spot.

Yes, this second half of the schedule is still very tough. The defense will be thoroughly tested as the quality of offense over the next nine games gets drastically better. However, it's not quite as tough as once thought. The Browns and Bengals not being as good of teams as initially expected makes these nine games much more manageable, enough to the point in which we're not discussing whether or not the Steelers will make the playoffs, but if they can actually win the division or even end the embarrassing streak of no playoffs wins since 2016.