Despite a 4-2 start to the season, Mike Tomlin is seriously weighing a quarterback change heading into the Steelers' Week 7 matchup against the Jets.
While Tomlin answered many questions about that during his Tuesday press conference, it's worth looking into the potential benefits and drawbacks of making Russell Wilson the starter after Justin Fields has played better than just about anybody expected.
On the whole, Fields has provided competent quarterback play, albeit in a unconventional sense. Not the way Mason Rudolph did it down the stretch last season by making reads and throws from the pocket, but rather in a more high-risk, high-reward type of way.
Overall, Fields ranks 15th with a 93.9 passer rating and he's completing 66.3% of his passes, which would be a career high should he finish the season with that mark. He also ranks 16th in EPA/play, 19th in success rate, 13th in completion percentage above expected (CPOE) and 15th in average air yards. These are fine numbers. Nothing extraordinary, but nothing terrible.
Of course, Fields' ability to run and extend plays outside of the pocket is where the high-reward plays reside. In addition to the five touchdown passes he's thrown, Fields has run for an additional five scores. That's 10 total touchdowns in six games. Kenny Pickett scored seven total touchdowns in twice as many games a season ago. And, with the biggest concern being his tendency to turn the ball over, Fields has two total turnovers in six games compared to 41 turnovers in 40 games with Chicago.
The quarterback play has definitely gotten better. Not good enough to the point in which we can chalk the Steelers up as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. But, better than what they had.
However, I believe that if Wilson had reached this level of health three weeks ago, this wouldn't be a conversation worth having. Through the first three weeks of the season, Fields had committed just one turnover, but was connecting on passes from the pocket, on time and everything. His 7.9% CPOE, a metric used to measure a quarterback's performance rather than raw completion percentage as it accounts for the contextual factors that can affect the likelihood of a pass being completed, ranked fourth in the NFL.
I would also say that, despite coming off a loss, Fields wouldn't have his spot threatened by Wilson after playing the Colts. Fields engineered a lot of the offense that fought back from a 17-0 deficit to ultimately lose, 27-24. The Steelers haven't had a quarterback that gave them a fighting chance in such a hole since Ben Roethlisberger.
However, the past two games have not been Fields' best from a passing standpoint. No, what he can do with his legs absolutely cannot be discredited, and I'll get back to that again later. However, not having consistent passing in today's NFL immediately handcuffs any offense. Fields was a consistent passer over the first four games. But now, he's had back-to-back rough performances.
One metric that tells this is a huge dip in his CPOE. As mentioned earlier, after Week 3, he ranked fourth in the NFL. But over the past two weeks, his CPOE is -4.6%, which ranks 26th over that span. And that's despite his air yards jumping from 6.6 through the first four weeks of the season to 10.0 over the past two weeks, with is the sixth-highest during that span.
From looking over the data, the biggest concern to me is the lack of explosive plays out of play-action. Arthur Smith's offense is built on a strong running game that tests defenses down the field with a heavy dose of play-action. That hasn't happened with Fields thus far. Here are his numbers out of play-action so far this season, and how they rank among the 33 quarterbacks with at least 50 play-action dropbacks:
• Passer rating: 75.9 (31st)
• Average depth of target (ADoT): 5.0 yards (T-27th)
• First-read percentage: 47.8% (dead last)
• Check-down percentage: 34.8% (1st)
• Pressure percentage: 46.8% (3rd)
• Sacks avoided: 4 (T-3rd)
Those are not numbers that can produce chunks out of play-action on a consistent basis. Although, Fields should be commended for being able to avoid pressure, despite dealing with the third-highest percentage of it in the league.
Now, part of this can absolutely fall on the scheme by Smith, the lack of health on the offensive line or even perhaps that the weapons Fields has at his disposal are collectively some of the least threatening in football. George Pickens is obviously dangerous, but Pat Freiermuth has been wildly underutilized in play-action. Of his 144 routes ran, only 34 have been on play-action. And of his 25 targets, only seven have been on play-action.
But, some of this failure on play-action falls on Fields. There have been throws to be made downfield on which simply didn't pull the trigger. This one against the Cowboys should have gone to Calvin Austin III, but Fields went to Jefferson instead for a dangerous play:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) October 16, 2024
Find the spot in which Fields hits his back foot and pause the video. Then, look at all the green that Austin is running to. Fields is looking at him, but opts to not pull the trigger. This throw has to be made. Instead, Fields throws a turnover-worthy pass.
Speaking of, Fields had zero turnover-worthy plays while being credit with four big-time throws during the first three weeks of the season, according to Pro Football Focus. Over the past three games, Fields has just two big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays.
Due to the regression we've seen from Fields over the past two weeks, it might be worth seeing what Wilson has left in the tank. Nobody will ever know until he actually steps onto the field, two healthy calves and all. That's what Tomlin is entertaining when he answered question after question Tuesday afternoon. It's not as much about Fields having two rough weeks as a passer. It's about seeing what a potential future Hall of Famer may still have left.
"Justin has been really good, and we've been really good at times, but not to be confused with great," Tomlin explained. "This is a competitive league, man. We're trying to position ourselves to be that team, and we got a player with talent who hadn't had an opportunity to play, so we're going to potentially explore those things. Sometimes it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with what Justin has done or has not done.
"You’d better have your foot on the gas at all times. You better look to divide the labor up in the most appropriate way based on who's available to you and healthy, and that's just simply what we're going to do."
The most intriguing thing about Wilson being the quarterback is if he can help unlock the struggles in play-action thus far. Again, there are inhibitors, no matter who's under center. But, it might be at least worth exploring what this offense could look like with a guy who's been great out of play-action throughout a 13-year career.
Just last year, which was by no means one of Wilson's best, he put up these numbers in play-action (along with rankings among 30 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks):
• Passer rating: 117.2 (7th)
• ADoT: 9.3 yards (6th)
• First-read percentage: 54.3% (dead last)
• Check-down percentage: 19.0% (1st)
• Pressure percentage: 47.5% (3rd)
• Sacks avoided: 9 (1st)
It's more than impressive that Wilson's passer rating and average depth of target while also dealing with the third-highest pressure percentage and avoiding more sacks than any other quarterback. Maybe that's why the Steelers feel Wilson can be an asset that helps elevate the offense as a whole.
And, if Smith has some stuff cooked up for Wilson, it may be more play-action out of the pistol or shotgun. Wilson put up significantly better numbers last season when throwing out of play-action on such formations:
• Passer rating: 142.1 (2nd of 33 with at least 25 dropbacks)
• ADoT: 11.5 (2nd)
• First-read percentage: 55.2% (dead last)
• Check-down percentage: 10.3% (11th of 33)
• Pressure percentage: 50% (1st of 33)
• Sacks avoided: 1
Now, it's worth not just noting but emphasizing that Fields absolutely has potential to throw downfield out of play-action. Last season with the Bears, Fields ranked fifth, just above Wilson, with an average depth of target at 10.4 yards out of play-action. And, he did so with a 94.6 passer rating and targeted his first read 61.5% of the time. The ability is there.
Plus, Fields' mobility is truly a game-changer. Tomlin himself admitted that Wilson cannot run like Fields, especially on the plays he made just this past week against the Raiders.
"No, he does not," Tomlin said. "Justin's legs are an X-factor."
The Steelers are without Troy Fautanu, James Daniels and Nate Herbig for the remainder of the season. They just lost Zach Frazier on a week-to-week basis. The offensive line is beaten up. As you can see from the high pressure percentage on play-action, they haven't given the adequate protection for a quarterback that can run like none other except for Lamar Jackson or perhaps Jayden Daniels.
Wilson is not nearly as mobile as he used to be. If guys can't get open in time, the Steelers lose the ability to escape and improvise outside the pocket the way Fields can. Fields doesn't have 231 rushing yards this season just because of designed runs. 113 yards have come from scrambling, and he's averaging 5.95 yards per attempt on those runs.
I understand at least satisfying curiosity to see what Wilson can do. Will he be more decisive? More accurate? Produce more out of play-action? If so, then maybe it's worth the switch. And if those things are true, then results should come from it. But, there are six games worth of tape to build off with Fields should Wilson's play not pan out. The leash should not be long.
DEJAN KOVACEVIC: Find DK's thoughts on the quarterback situation in our Steelers Feed.
