The Steelers enter the 2024 season with a new roster, some positions have been overhauled for the better. The defense looks to be revamped, especially with high-impact moves at inside linebacker.
The offense, however, is a different story. Yes, there's a new offensive coordinator. Yes, there's a completely overhauled quarterback room. But neither have quelled concerns that this unit can match the urgency set forth by Art Rooney II to win playoff games.
"I approach every season with a big-time sense of urgency," Mike Tomlin said with a laugh during his Tuesday press conference at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. "We'll have an opportunity to put some tape out this weekend that's kind of reflective of that discussion. I'm more of a doer than a talker. Talking glowingly, particularly when you're undefeated this time of year is easy, and I'm not attracted to easy. We're just going to work, and we'll put tape out there that's reflective of our intentions."
In order to preview this Steelers season, I'm breaking this up into two parts. No predictions, no win totals, just breaking down each side of the ball in order to better know what to expect from this team in 2024. I've already covered the defense, so now's the time to dive deep into the offense.
I'll break this down position by position, and finally provide a general overview for how and why the offense may or may not perform a certain way.
QUARTERBACK
Projected starter: Russell Wilson
Notable additions: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Kyle Allen
Notable losses: Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky
Rookies: N/A
Tomlin and the Steelers opted for experience at quarterback, thus bringing Wilson in to become the next starting quarterback in Pittsburgh. After Pickett demanded a trade, Omar Khan acquiesced and sent him to Philadelphia for a third-round pick and then turned around and acquired Fields from the Bears shortly thereafter. But, despite Fields making a strong push during training camp and the preseason, Wilson's the starting quarterback.
Tomlin hired Arthur Smith to be his new offensive coordinator, and Wilson still has some traits that fit well in his type of offense. First and foremost, Wilson still throws a heck of a deep ball, and the numbers back up his ability to be most dangerous when throwing deep. Last season, Wilson posted a 112.5 passer rating when throwing 20-plus yards down the field, which included six touchdown passes to only one interception. 20 of his 23 completions downfield were considered big time throws by Pro Football Focus. Wilson also ranked 11th among qualifying passers in big time throw percentage and also had the 11th-best percentage in turnover worthy plays when throwing deep. Not quite as elite as he used to be, but still an efficient and productive deep-ball passer.
Wilson's ability to throw the ball deep fits very well in Smith's offense, especially in play-action. Fortunately, Wilson's numbers there are exceptional, too. When passing off play-action, Wilson posted 117.2 passer rating, completing 67.6% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and only one interception, while averaging 7.45 yards per attempt. His average depth of target on play-action was 9.3 yards, which is exactly two yards more than when Wilson was throwing without play-action.
There are two key areas of concern: First, and probably the most criticized portion of Wilson's game, is the lack of throwing over the middle of the field. Last season, Wilson only had 78 passing attempts over the middle. For context, only five quarterbacks that made at least 10 starts had fewer attempts to the middle of the field. The problem is Smith's offense does utilize the middle of the field quite often. Wilson's numbers are actually not bad when he throws to the middle of the field, as he posted a 97.0 passer rating when targeting receivers 1-20 yards downfield in between the numbers. The problem is the lack of volume. That can limit the use of tight ends in Smith's offense, which is another thing the new coordinator loves to do.
Second, Wilson holds onto the ball for far too long. As he always has, Wilson wants to make every play a home run, which comes with its drawbacks. Not only is it impossible to make every single play, it can put the offense behind the chains far too often. It also puts pressure on the offensive line. Wilson's average time to throw last season was 3.06 seconds, the third-highest time among qualifying passers. That will come with some reward, but also considerable risk. Not to mention, this is a young offensive line that's also battling injuries before the season even begins. Wilson won't survive by holding onto the ball forever.
This offense won't run efficiently if they have to play in a lot of third-and-long situations. They have to stay on schedule. If not, Wilson's limited in his ability to convert such down and distance on a consistent basis. If this team can run the ball effectively, then Wilson stands a better chance of being an efficient and productive passer.
All in all, the overall floor of quarterback play is raised with Wilson instead of Pickett. Of quarterbacks that logged at least 300 snaps in 2023, Wilson ranked 19th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play, a metric that measures the value of each play by calculating the difference in expected points before and after the play. Pickett ranked 26th. And, Wilson's still a very accurate quarterback. His completion percentage above expected (CPOE) ranked third-best in the NFL, only behind Brock Purdy and Josh Allen. Pickett, once again, ranked 26th.
Player to watch: Justin Fields
Wilson may be the guy to start the season, but that doesn't mean Fields won't get his opportunities.
"Make no mistake, his talent, his unique talent as it pertains to mobility, is something that we're open to weaponizing," Tomlin said on Aug. 28, when he announced Wilson as the starting quarterback.
Fields' ceiling is very high. He's a superb athlete and runner, which always stresses defenses. In 2022, Fields racked up a whopping 1,143 rushing yards and led qualifying rushers with 7.1 yards per carry. And, Fields has plenty of arm talent, especially when throwing the deep ball. The numbers back that up, too. In 2023, Fields posted a 114.6 passer rating when throwing the ball 20-plus yards downfield, which included 18 big time throws to only one turnover worthy play, according to Pro Football Focus. Eight of Fields' 16 touchdown passes in 2023 came on these deep throws.
But, Fields isn't a finished product. Perhaps the biggest flaw in his game is turning the ball over. In that same season in which Fields racked up more than 1,100 yards on the ground, Fields also led the NFL with 16 fumbles. He's fumbled the ball 38 times in three NFL seasons, losing 11 of them. Adding in the 30 interceptions he's thrown, that's 41 turnovers in three seasons. He's played 40 NFL games, so that's about one turnover per game. That's a way to put stress on your own defense and even lose football games.
Perhaps Fields has just needed the right system to realize his potential. Maybe Smith's offense is a match made in heaven. But that's hardly a sure bet. For now, expect there to be special packages with him in certain down-and-distance situations, or perhaps in the red zone or close to the end zone. His ability to both run and throw the ball deep is difficult to defend.
RUNNING BACKS
Projected starters:
• RB1: Najee Harris
• RB2: Jaylen Warren
Notable additions: Cordarrelle Patterson
Notable losses: N/A
Rookies: N/A
If you're looking for a strength on offense, it's right here at running back. Last season, the Steelers and Lions were the only teams to have multiple running backs surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage. And, the Steelers did that in spite of a midseason change at offensive coordinator. Harris and Warren are legitimately one of the best duos in the league.
The question is how can Smith get the most out of these two running backs? Harris and Warren can be described as thunder and lightning, if you will. But Harris needs to become a more efficient runner while Warren has to expect defenses to better prepare better for him.
Regarding Harris, it couldn't be more obvious that when he was on the field, defenses expected the Steelers to run the ball. Of Harris' 2023 snaps, 52% were on running plays. Conversely, only 35.1% of Warren's snaps were on running plays. According to Sumer Sports, Harris ran into an average of 7.07 defenders in the box, the eighth-highest average among running backs with at least 125 attempts. Compare that to Warren, who ran into an average of 6.67 defenders in the box, ranking 33rd.
In other words, if Harris was on the field, it was a good chance the Steelers were running. If Warren was on the field, there was an even better chance the Steelers were throwing the ball.
If Smith's offense is less predictable, and everything I've heard indicates it should be, Harris should have more opportunities to be efficient.
Either way, this is a stout duo at running back. And, the addition of Patterson as a third option give the Steelers great depth in case of injury. Neither Harris or Warren are great fantasy football options given the split in their workload, but it's still a formidable tandem that should produce on the ground. And both can also receive passes out of the backfield, as well.
Like I said, this is the strength on offense. At the very minimum, it's the one with the least amount of questions and concerns.
Player to watch: Jaylen Warren
Harris may be the first-rounder, but Warren has some stats that are indicative of being a budding star.
Among running backs with at least 125 carries, Warren finished only second to Christian McCaffrey, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year, with 5.26 yards per carry. He led those same running backs with an average of 3.29 yards after contact and 1.24 yards created, a metric that measures the number of yards a running back “creates” on his own, independent of offensive line play.. He was third behind only McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs with an 11.4 explosive run percentage.
Starting to see the picture? Warren is putting up certain numbers that rank among the game's best. Maybe this is why Harris hasn't seen a contract extension and had his fifth-year option declined. Perhaps the Steelers see a brighter future with Warren rather than with Harris. If so, the Steelers will have to re-sign him next offseason as he's bound to be a restricted free agent.
Thus, he is definitely a player worth paying extra attention this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Projected depth chart:
• WR1: George Pickens
• WR2: Van Jefferson
• WR3: Calvin Austin III
• WR4: Roman Wilson
• WR5: Scotty Miller
Notable additions: Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller
Notable losses: Diontae Johnson, Allen Robinson
Rookies: Roman Wilson
The Johnson trade created a void at receiver, and the only way it's been addressed is with the additions of Jefferson and Miller. There are also the likes of Brandon Johnson, Ben Skowronek and Quez Watkins on the practice squad. None of those guys are named Brandon Aiyuk, with whom the Steelers tried like crazy to acquire via trade but swung and missed when he opted to sign a massive contract extension with the 49ers.
Without a trade for an impact receiver, Pickens is the lead dog at receiver. He progressed in a lot of areas from Year 1 to Year 2, and there's every reason to believe he can take another step forward in 2024.
The one thing that surprisingly went down last season was Pickens' contested catch rate. As a rookie, he converted 67.9% of contested catches, but converted only 32% last season, according to Pro Football Focus. It'll be interesting to see how he bounces back.
One way that Pickens could really take the top off is by becoming a better route runner. Should he find the ability to create good separation, it's over for the rest of the NFL, especially considering that teams have been pressing Pickens just as much as anyone else since he came into the league.
Last season, Pickens faced an average cushion of 5.1 yards, the lowest of any qualifying receiver in football, according to NFL's Next Gen Stats. Pickens was pressed even more often during his rookie season, facing an average cushion of 4.7 yards, the second-lowest in the NFL that season. Defenses go all out in pressing Pickens.
Outside of Pickens, the Steelers just need somebody to step up. The easy answer here is for Khan to acquire Aiyuk, Samuel or some other big-time receiver. But, with that not a guarantee, who can be the guy to step up and become a legitimate threat alongside Pickens?
Jefferson is a guy who caught 50 passes for 802 yards and six touchdowns for the Rams when they won the Super Bowl just a few years ago. However, he's barely put up more than half of that production over the past two seasons combined with the Rams and Falcons.
Austin is a fan favorite that wows people with his elite speed and superb athleticism. But, Austin has to round out the rest of his game. In three games last season while Johnson was sidelined, Austin averaged only 2.6 yards of separation despite facing an average cushion of 7.6 yards. He needs to become a better route runner.
Of course, Wilson could come in and contribute as a rookie. Despite having a pretty small frame at 5-11 and 185 pounds, Wilson has elite speed and knows how to attack the intermediate and deep levels of defenses. He did that all the time at Michigan. Even then, he became a pretty good route runner within the role he was given.
Regardless of the upside within the room outside of Pickens, it's a massive gamble to go into the season without an established second receiver. Should Pickens go down with an injury, the Steelers would be virtually screwed. Nothing against Jefferson, Austin or Wilson, but none of these guys are a No. 1 receiver at the NFL level. It's a huge risk to assume Pickens will just remain healthy. And in order for this receiver room to work without any external additions, Pickens has to remain on the field.
Player to watch: Roman Wilson
While Jefferson and Austin are both capable of improving, Wilson's the x-factor here. The main reason why is because of the unknown. Sure, we can all watch his college tape and have a good idea of what he can do, but it's always different when guys get to the NFL level, for better or worse. I mean, who would have thought Puka Nacua would do what he did with the Rams as a fifth-round rookie last season?
Wilson could be a bit of a game-changer. Not only could he provide some pop out of the slot, Wilson's a tenacious blocker, too. He may not always execute the best blocks, but there isn't an assignment with which he won't run into full steam ahead.
Wilson has a very similar frame to Johnson. While he's not nearly as developed, Wilson has enough speed and athleticism to warrant some closer attention, especially as the season progresses.
TIGHT ENDS
Projected depth chart:
• TE1: Pat Freiermuth
• TE2: Darnell Washington
• TE3: Connor Heyward
• TE4: MyCole Pruitt
Notable additions: MyCole Pruitt
Notable losses: N/A
Rookies: N/A
While receiver has its concerns, tight end seems to be a pretty stout position. And maybe, just maybe, the No. 2 receiver on this team is no receiver at all.
Just as people hoped Freiermuth could be a difference maker in 2023, that stands a better chance to happen in 2024. Smith's offenses in Tennessee and Atlanta featured the tight end position far more often than we've seen in Pittsburgh under Matt Canada. Just as the Steelers were near the bottom of the league in targets to tight ends last season, Atlanta was third-highest in the NFL under Smith.
Having Smith as offensive coordinator also means a potential increase in role for Heyward and Washington. Heyward is the more accomplished receiving option, but Washington is athletic enough to be an interesting option in the receiving game, especially in the red zone. Don't be surprised if Washington is a bit more featured than Heyward, but all tight ends will get work in this offense, along with newcomer Pruitt, who played under Smith in Atlanta.
No team in the NFL used 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) more than Atlanta, Smith's final season as head coach with the Falcons. Atlanta also ranked third in 13 personnel usage. And everything witnessed throughout training camp and the preseason suggests Smith isn't going to shy away from multiple tight end sets in Pittsburgh, either.
Player to watch: Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth is coming off a disappointing season in which he battled injuries and was hampered by a limited offense, catching only 32 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns. But the season prior, Freiermuth flashed a lot of his potential as a receiving threat at the tight end position, catching 63 passes for 732 yards and two touchdowns. Freiermuth also caught seven touchdown passes as a rookie in 2021, when Ben Roethlisberger was his quarterback.
Now, Freiermuth will have an offensive coordinator who has experience in scheming open tight ends, and the quarterback play -- while having valid concerns -- should be better this season. If there's a season in which Freiermuth will "break out" or at least become the team's second-leading receiver, it's this one.
Freiermuth's got all the tools to become one of the better receiving tight ends in the league, and this year's the best chance he'll have of establishing himself as such.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Projected starters:
• Left tackle: Dan Moore Jr.
• Left guard: Isaac Seumalo
• Center: Zach Frazier
• Right guard: James Daniels
• Right tackle: Troy Fautanu
Notable additions: N/A
Notable losses: Mason Cole
Rookies: Troy Fautanu, Zach Frazier, Mason McCormick
Everything the Steelers need to do on offense relies on the offensive line's ability to make it happen. The Steelers have not one but two quarterbacks that hold onto the ball for a long time. And, of course, the Steelers want to be a run-first team. No team can do that without the offensive line winning up front. With the way the line has played in recent seasons, there had to be changes made in order to play at a higher level.
The first step was releasing Mason Cole and Chukwuma Okorafor. From there, all effort to improve was geared toward the NFL Draft. Throughout the draft circuit, as I repeatedly reported leading up to the draft, tackle was made a priority in the first round. Even Pat Meyer was instructed specifically to scout right tackles during certain pro days, reinforcing Khan's vision of Jones being the left tackle of the future. Yes, center was a bigger need, but it's clear that Khan, Tomlin, Weidl and others on the inside wanted to capitalize on a strong crop of tackles atop the draft class.
The Steelers dedicated three of their seven picks to offensive linemen, and they got their tackle in the first round by selecting Troy Fautanu out of Washington at 20th overall. They turned right around and selected Zach Frazier out of West Virginia in the second round, addressing the gaping hole at center. Finally, Mason McCormick was drafted out of South Dakota State in the fourth round to give the team a young guard with high upside.
With three young, talented additions to the offensive line, the unit looks much better on paper. But, don't expect them to have everything figured out right away.
The starting five for the season opener in Atlanta will be, from left to right, Moore, Spencer Anderson, Frazier, Daniels and Jones. Anderson figures to be the starter while Seumalo is sidelined with a pec injury, and Fautanu is coming off a knee sprain suffered in the preseason that has his status for Week 1 uncertain. But that's 60% of the line being very, very young, two of which with two total NFL snaps in the bank and one with less than a season as a starter. As it was in 2022 with two new veterans on the line, adjusting to a new zone scheme takes time. Chemistry has to be built.
Smith's system in Tennessee and Atlanta heavily relies on wide zone, which requires the aforementioned chemistry, but also a great deal of athleticism. Fortunately, Jones, Moore, Seumalo, Daniels, Fautanu and Frazier are all very athletic, especially in terms of run blocking. They can get to the second level on outside zone concepts and any of them can pull for any type of block in gap/man concepts.
Eventually, should the Steelers avoid further injuries, the starting five could be Jones, Seumalo, Frazier, Daniels and Fautanu. Jones and Fautanu were drafted in the first round in back-to-back seasons, and Khan has been clear that Jones will eventually play the left side. The team still view him as a left tackle.
That's an exciting group. But, it's also very young. No doubt this nucleus that's being developed has a high ceiling. Should Jones, Fautanu and Frazier all pan out in the next couple of seasons, the Steelers could have a legitimate top 10 offensive line. But, 2024 could realistically come with a lot of growing pains.
Player to watch: Broderick Jones
Of all the linemen to watch, Jones might be the most intriguing. Mainly, he's a left tackle that's currently playing the right side. It's clear that he wants to play the left side. He handled playing on the right pretty well as a rookie, but there's also room to improve.
It'll be curious to see how Jones progresses, especially if he's having to bounce around between the right and left sides. A lot is riding on Jones developing into a book end for the future. Of all the Year 2 players in Pittsburgh, Jones might be the most important.
OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW
The formula for success on offense is simple: Run the football, control the clock, utilize play-action to take the top off the defense and minimize turnovers. Over the past three seasons, the Steelers are 28-7 when they either win or break even in the turnover margin. But they have to find a way to do that and also be a threat to put the ball in the end zone.
The limitations for this group is when they are eventually faced with the task of playing behind the sticks and playing from behind. If this offense can't stay on schedule and keep the majority of their third downs at manageable distances, they're going to have a difficult time sustaining drives. They just don't have the fire power through the air to play in third-and-long all the time.
The good thing is Wilson is good at minimizing interceptions. Since he entered the league in 2012, Wilson ranks fourth behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Alex Smith in having the lowest interception percentage. He's always been good about protecting the football, and he's coming off a season in which he threw 26 touchdown and only eight interceptions. That ability is still there.
But, asking him to play hero ball all the time is not the way this offense can be effective. He's just not that guy anymore. Thus, this offense is limited. It should be better than it's been over the past few seasons, but a lot has to go right in order for this to be a formidable group in today's NFL.
For a preview of the defense, ► READ HERE
